Today’s Fantasy Baseball Wavier Wire features Kansas City Royals third baseman and shortstop: Maikel Garcia. Aside from being the cousin of Alcides Escobar, what can he offer?
Garcia comes through with the RBI to tie the game at one! #Royals
TV: Bally Sports Kansas City
Stream: https://t.co/wMWXLD7xVx pic.twitter.com/gWln25cnfp— Bally Sports Kansas City (@BallySportsKC) June 25, 2023
Fantasy Baseball Wavier Wire: Maikel Garcia
At 16, Maikel Garcia signed with the Royals as a Venezuelan international free agent. In 2021 he split the season between the Single-A Columbia Fireflies and the High-A Quad Cities River Bandits hitting .291 with an OBP of .391, 50 RBI, 35 SB, and four HR. After their season ended, the Royals added him to their 40-man roster.
In 2022, he made his Major League debut on July 14th as a 22-year-old, striking out in his only plate appearance.
This year, the Royals recalled Garcia in early May and he has continued to play since. As a right-handed hitter, he slashed .284/.342/.731 in 58 games before the All-Star Break.
But, what exactly makes this 23-year-old stand out as a Waver Wire pickup in 2023? Let’s find out.
AVG and Splits
In 68 games, Garcia owns a .279/.329/.386 line with four home runs and 14 stolen bases.
Against righties, it goes down a bit to .264/.328/.337.
Against lefties, however, it goes up significantly to .315/.329/.507.
Since the All-Star Break, Garcia has heavily favored left-handed pitching while posting decent numbers vs. right-handed pitching. On average, he’s producing a 1/4 (H/AB) line against righties and a 1/3 line against lefties (5/16 is more accurate). Recall that most hitters in the top or middle of a lineup usually get four plate appearances per game.
Let’s dig a little deeper, though.
There are three primary pitch types: Fastballs, Breaking, and Off-Speed. According to Baseball Savant, the 4-seamer, cutter, sinker, and 2-seamer fall into the first category. Sliders, sweepers, knuckleballs, slurves, and curveballs fall into the second category. Forkballs, changeups, screwballs, and splitters fall into the third category.
Using a custom line, in 68 games, Garcia owns a. 307/.205/.375 AVG in that order. So while he hits fastballs and off-speed pitches pretty well, Garcia struggles with some breaking pitches. Surprisingly, he’s only batting .219 against the 4-seam fastball this year.
Against righties, it’s a .293/.219/.308 line. For 4-seam fastballs, his AVG drops to .167. So, he’s hitting the sinker, cutter, sweeper, and change-up well against right-handed pitchers, but not the 4-seamer, slider, curveball, and splitter.
Against lefties, it’s a .343/.133/.421 line. For 4-seam fastballs, his AVG goes up to .320. So he’s good against the 4-seam fastball, change-up, sinker, and cutter, but not as effective against the slider and curveball.
Understandably, the location and effectiveness of each pitch vary.
His zone contact rate currently stands at 83.7%. A high percentage also correlates with good plate discipline.
Up to this point, Garcia hits off-speed pitches and pitches with “slight” break more comfortably (e.g. cutter) than pitches that break a bit more (e.g. slider). Occasionally, he’ll get a hit from a 4-seam fastball, but more so against left-handed pitchers.
Runs, Walks, and On-Base Percentage
Through 68 games, Garcia averages four runs every 10 games. Keep in mind that not every game equates to four plate appearances. For an everyday player like Garcia, it’s usually what he’ll get though.
While runs are useful for knowing how many times a player scored, they’re also influenced by factors outside of a player’s control. If a player goes 3-for-3 or 0-for-0 with three walks, does that mean he didn’t perform well simply because he didn’t score? Subsequently, for an individual player, it’s good to look into stats such as BB, OBP, and AVG, in addition to R.
Nevertheless, runs scored is a useful category in Fantasy Leagues as it indirectly measures an individual’s and team’s offensive performance. Things get a bit tricky though when runs count, but not walks or on-base percentage. So in terms of fantasy value, take it with a grain of salt.
As for OBP, Garcia gets on base approximately one out of three plate appearances. His walk rate stands at ~7.3%. Even though the MLB average is currently 8.3%, there’s a pretty big jump from his AVG (.279) to OBP (.329); a .50 increase. So even though most of his damage comes from hitting, he’ll occasionally walk. And with every walk or hit, his chances of scoring a run also increase.
RBI and RISP
Like any good Fantasy Baseball Wavier Wire pickup, players should be clutch every now and then. Thankfully, Garcia has proven himself so far. Through 68 games, he’s batting .358 with runners in scoring position. With 29 RBI, that’s about four RBI every 10 games. Although a high RBI count is ideal, players rarely have the same number of opportunities. Hence, it’s important to look at their at-bats in this category. Garcia has over 50 so far.
2023 Percentile Rankings
At the moment, Garcia ranks in the 90th percentile for the highest average exit velocity, 92nd percentile for the highest hard hit percentage, 83rd percentile for the lowest whiff rate, and 94th percentile for the lowest chase rate. Even with the likes of Yandy Diaz (Tampa Bay Rays) and Will Smith (Los Angeles Dodgers), Garcia still comes atop with a 19% chase rate.
According to FanGraphs, Garcia’s mostly chasing changeups and sliders outside the zone. Conversely, he does a better job laying off sinkers, fastballs, and cutters.
Interestingly, while his chase rate is relatively high for change-ups, he’s batting .423 against them. And while his chase rate is relatively low for curveballs, he’s batting an abysmal .100 against them. Funny how baseball works.
Overall, Garcia’s offensive tool set consists of exceptional strike zone awareness and hard-hit balls. Usually, these two have a strong correlation with one another, but not always.
Summary
Maikel Garcia should provide plenty of hard-hit balls with a walk now and then. Because his whiff and strikeout rate are relatively low, he has a better chance to put the ball in play and ultimately, get a base hit. A good chunk of his hits may also include an RBI.
In terms of speed, he’s averaging one stolen base every five games. And in 68 games, he only has four home runs.
Look for R, RBI, AVG, and BB as his primary means of production. Don’t expect as much from the HR or SB category.
Main photo credits:
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
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