After taking a day off from making baseball bets, we are back today with more picks! This is our daily series in which we take a look at the starting pitching matchups for the day and determine what three games we have a chance to profit from. Without further adieu, here are our picks for baseball bets on July 24th!
Baseball Bets for July 24th
The Headliner: Rangers @ Astros
In yet another battle for the AL West, the Texas Rangers travel east to take on the Houston Astros. On the mound for the Rangers will be Jon Gray. In 18 starts, Gray has a 3.31 ERA across 103 1/3 innings with 83 strikeouts and a 1.19 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 4.66 ERA across 38 2/3 innings with 32 strikeouts and a 1.45 WHIP. Gray has pitched much better on the road. In eight road starts, he carries a 2.31 ERA across 46 2/3 innings with 35 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP. He has made two starts against the Astros this season, one home and one away. In those starts, he combined to allow six runs (all earned), in eight innings of work, on eight hits, three walks and struck out six.
The Astros will counter with Brandon Bielak. In 12 games (11 starts), Bielak carries a 3.46 ERA across 65 innings with 50 strikeouts and a 1.40 WHIP. Over his last seven (all starts), he has a 3.40 ERA across 39 2/3 innings with 28 strikeouts and a 1.31 WHIP. Bielak has been better at home. In six home games (five starts), he carries a 2.87 ERA across 31 1/3 innings with 33 strikeouts and a 1.24 WHIP. Dusty Baker said on Friday that Yordan Alvarez could be back from injury for today’s game. If that is the case, expect Yordan to go yard and lead the Astros to victory against their in-state rival.
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The Play: Astros ML (-105) – 1.5U
Bonus Player Prop: *at the time of writing, there are no odds for Alvarez to hit a home run. Make your bet Alvarez, regardless of odds, should he be back today* Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 HR (+440) – 0.5U
Inter-League Matchup: Orioles @ Phillies
The Baltimore Orioles begin their week with the first of a three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies. On the mound for the Orioles will be Dean Kremer. In 20 starts, Kremer has a 4.80 ERA across 108 2/3 innings with 101 strikeouts and a 1.34 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 4.66 ERA across 38 2/3 innings with 42 strikeouts and a 1.16 WHIP. In nine road starts, Kremer holds a 4.04 ERA across 49 innings with 53 strikeouts and a 1.41 WHIP. Kremer’s FIP for the season sits at 5.05, which shows that the defense has bailed him out at times this season. With an average exit velocity allowed on the season of 90.5, the odds do not look to be in his favor against the Phillies’ formidable offense.
The Phillies will counter with lefty Cristopher Sanchez. In seven starts, Sanchez has a 3.06 ERA across 35 1/3 innings with 30 strikeouts and a 1.05 WHIP. Over his last three, he carries a 2.81 ERA across 16 innings with 10 strikeouts and a 0.94 WHIP. While still above average, Sanchez has not performed as well at home. In five home starts, Sanchez sports a 3.91 ERA across 25 1/3 innings with 23 strikeouts and a 1.22 WHIP. Sanchez’s season FIP resides at 3.93 coming into today. His defense, as well, has bailed him out this season.
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The Play: Phillies ML (-121) – 1U
Bonus Player Prop: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 RBI (+137) – 0.5U
Frequent Divisional Matchup: Reds @ Brewers
For the third time this month, the Cincinnati Reds will be taking on the Milwaukee Brewers. On the mound for the Reds will be Graham Ashcraft. In 18 starts, Ashcraft has a 5.77 ERA across 93 2/3 innings with 66 strikeouts and a 1.54 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 6.11 ERA across 35 1/3 innings with 19 strikeouts and a 1.61 WHIP. While still not great, Ashcraft has been better on the road. In seven road starts, he carries a 4.42 ERA across 38 2/3 innings with 28 strikeouts and a 1.53 WHIP. In a day with a truncated slate of games, and weak matchups throughout, this one looks to be a gimme.
The Brewers will counter with Colin Rea. In 17 games this season (16 starts), Rea has a 4.64 ERA across 85 1/3 innings with 70 strikeouts and a 1.21 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 4.26 ERA across 38 innings with 30 strikeouts and a 1.13 WHIP. In nine home games (eight starts), Rea sports a 5.31 ERA across 40 2/3 innings with 40 strikeouts and a 1.38 WHIP. Rea has made two starts against the Reds this season. In those starts, he has combined to allow eight runs (all earned) in 9 2/3 innings on 13 hits, and four walks, and has struck out 12 batters. With the two offenses featured in today’s matchup, expect a shootout in this game, with the home team coming out on top in the end.
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The Play: Brewers ML (-117) – 0.5U
Bonus Total Prop: First Five Innings Total Over 5.5 (+104) – 0.5U
Main Photo credits:
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Jon Gray, Brandon Bielak, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Dean Kremer, Cristopher Sanchez, Bryce Harper, Graham Ashcraft, Colin Rea
