Happy All-Star break! Even though the regular season takes a few days off, the fantasy baseball show rolls on with an extended Week 15. Going hitter-heavy into the second half, here are five waiver wire targets to buy for Fantasy Baseball Week 15.
Fantasy Baseball Week 15 Waiver Wire Targets
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Jarren Duran
It’s officially the last call on five-tool centerfielder for the Boston Red Sox Jarren Duran. The aforementioned outfielder was featured by this baseball journalist to be the Red Sox fantasy sleeper pick. The Red Sox finally wised up and have begun to play Duran with semi-regularity.
Over 244 plate appearances in 2023, Duran has turned frowns from last year upside down. Boasting a stellar slash line of .313/.361/.500, Duran seems to be tapping into all parts of his raw athleticism, which had FanGraphs excited enough to grade him as a 50 Future Value player and close to an overall top 50 Prospect.
At 26 years old, Duran had his development progress interrupted by the shortened 2020 season. So, it’s not entirely surprising it took a few years for him to put it together, especially once he discovered a mechanical fix to his swing this previous off-season.
Duran’s tools speak loud and proud, and his speed specifically can be statistically quantified both defensively and offensively as elite. According to Statcast, the centerfielder exhibits an Outfielder Jump in the 98 percentile, as well as Sprint Speed in the 95 percentile.
While his raw power was graded an average-ish 45 as a prospect, his Max Exit Velocity suggests there’s more in the tank. Sporting a 112.6 Max EV, good for 83 percentile, Duran has the potential over a full season to post 20 home runs, to go along with 30-40 stolen bases.
He makes exceptional contact at nearly 90% Zone, so even though his BABIP is inflated at .426, any regression in batting average shouldn’t be catastrophic.
His ownership rates have recently soared, so fantasy managers who need help in offense should use the All-Star interlude to snag Duran before he peels off any more fantasy combo meals.
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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Breakout #1
Seth Lugo
Since returning from the Injured List, San Diego Padres starting pitcher Seth Lugo has produced a solid 2.05 ERA over four starts, going at least five innings in each.
With an 8.7% swinging strike rate, Lugo isn’t racking up Ks through swings. So how is he managing a respectable 8.34 K/9?
Lugo deploys his twelve-to-six curveball at 34.6% as his primary offering. He doesn’t pitch in reverse necessarily because he has a bad four-seam fastball, which he throws marginally less at 34.3%, and against which batters are only hitting .231. Lugo simply knows how to expertly sequence the curve and four-seam to exploit the most deception from their respective pitch shapes.
Curveballs tend to produce neutral platoon splits, therefore, they can be used equally well against righties and lefties. In Lugo’s case, where it’s a 50/50 coin flip between the four-seam and curve, this dichotomy optimizes the divergent planes of movement on the two pitches. While the four-seam rises vertically, the curve plummets in the opposite direction, leaving the hitters flat guessing.
The plummet of Lugo’s curve is special. Achieving eight inches above average vertical movement, Uncle Charlie also sits in the 99th percentile of Spin Rates with a sublimely kinetic 3244 RPM.
Curveballs tend to be more prone to generating Called Strikes than those of the swinging variety. This explains why Lugo ranks 17th in Called Strikes with 18.1%.
On top of all the metrics, Lugo doesn’t hurt himself by being stingy with the free passes, only allowing 1.84 BB/9.
On an underperforming Padres team, Wins have been tough to come by, but Lugo is a stud in Quality Starts leagues. Managers should hope the randomly fluctuating Win stat shines more favorably on Lugo in the second half. The skills are definitely there for him to reward fantasy teams.
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Breakout #2
Patrick Bailey
It’s been 38 games and 142 plate appearances now in the Show for a former first-round pick and current starting catcher for the San Francisco Giants Patrick Bailey. So far, the returns show a lot to like.
The pop in his bat seems real. With five long balls, the underlying .205 ISO and .508 slugging percentage supports more power to come. Bailey Barrels the baseball beautifully at 12.4%. And Statcast’s expected stats line up remarkably well with what he’s currently doing.
Bailey is also hitting .303 despite striking out at a less-than-desirable 27% clip. However, if you’re going to strike out, it’s best to do it Bailey-style. With a conservative 9.7% Swinging Strike, it’s likely Bailey is getting called out, rather than flailing his way to strikeouts.
His modest Outside Swing percentage of 29.2% indicates he is not swinging too frequently outside the zone. This is further confirmed by his excellent 89.8% Zone Contact.
With post-All-Star break road trips to hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, as well as matchups against less than formidable opponents in the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates, Bailey’s Week 15 poses a prime audition space for any managers who want to entertain Bailey as a Catcher one or two.
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Breakout #3
CJ Abrams
There may not be much to get excited about with Nationals infielder CJ Abrams’ current line of .234/.284/.392. But the peripheral indicators suggest the force might be kind of strong with young Jedi Abrams.
The first thing Abrams has to indicate his future value rising is the 22-year-old’s youth and his ability to make adjustments at this young age. What jumps out in Abram’s profile from 2022 to the current season is the differential in his ground ball to fly ball ratios.
After beating the ball into the ground around 51% last season, Abrams has cut the worm killers by 5% and reallocated that 5% to his fly ball rate. This is a good thing because Abrams flashes excellent raw power as evidenced by his Max EVs in the 82nd percentile.
Despite not being quite as yoked as the older Duran, Abrams shows an almost identical Max Exit Velocity of 112.5. Abrams’ Future Raw Power was actually graded by FanGraphs as 55. So, the fact that at 22 he’s smacking home runs of quality caliber bodes well for the infielder. Abrams also has started batting at the top of an underrated Nationals lineup.
With elite 80-grade speed that he’s used to qualify in the 83rd percentile of Sprint Speed, Abrams should be able to increase his stolen base total with more plate appearances from the leadoff spot. With multi-positional eligibility, and the ability to pop 15 to 20 dongs accompanied by 25-30 steals, Abrams looks very good in the near and long term for fantasy managers.
CJ Abrams as leadoff hitter: 3-for-6 with a walk and a stolen base.
— Mark Zuckerman (@MarkZuckerman) July 8, 2023
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Sleeper
Corey Julks
Once again returning to the well of early-season fantasy sleeper picks, Houston Astros outfielder Corey Julks is now seeing regular playing time and capitalizing accordingly.
Over the past month, Julks has seen 74 plate appearances and batted .338 with an OPS of .862. He’s also nabbed seven stolen bases and socked a homer. Over the season, he’s netted an above-average 107 RC+.
Most encouragingly, he has raised his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate as the season has gone on.
Over 130 games in AAA last season, Julks slugged 31 home runs and swiped 22 bags. That season, as well as the previous, he posted ISO’s over .200. So, the power is legit. He also possesses a 17.3 Launch Angle, ideal for jacking home runs. And his dead-pull approach should produce more frequent Crawford Box dongs going forward.
Julks posted very good walk and strikeout rates in the minors. This combination of power speed and batting average deserves a look for most fantasy rosters.
Main photo credits:
Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Jarren Duran, Seth Lugo, Patrick Bailey, CJ Abrams, Corey Julks
