The American League East is by far the best division in baseball. If you add up the stats, the combined teams have a cumulative record of 249-191 and a league-leading .566-win percentage in 2023. In a world that does not include the Houston Astros, it would be no surprise if all five squads earned a playoff spot. But, how has Boston stacked up against their AL East rivals this season?
al east and al central standings right now
43-42 red sox in fifth, 42-43 twins in first pic.twitter.com/Puz6SXp0ec— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) July 2, 2023
How Has Boston Stacked Up Against the AL East This Year?
A Troubling 2022
Record-wise, the Boston Red Sox took the brunt of the punches against their division opponents last year. According to Baseball Reference, Boston was 26-50 against AL East opponents and 52-34 against everyone else. When facing the Toronto Blue Jays specifically, the Sox finished 3-16.
Some of these division losses were extremely ugly, like that one stretch in July where they lost to the Yankees and Blue Jays five days in a row by a combined score of 67-13 (the Sox lost 28-5 in one of the Toronto games).
Close Losses Hurt
Research shows that the most frustrating aspect was not necessarily the blowout losses, but those close, nail-biting defeats. According to Baseball Reference, exactly half of Boston’s losses against division opponents in 2022 were within two runs, and out of their 50 losses, the Sox had a lead at some point in 26 of them.
The Tampa Bay Rays made the Wild Card series at 86-76 and the Sox missed the playoffs at 78-84. Had a few of those close games gone their way, the Sox may have had a chance at a playoff run.
The face-value stats also showed how the Sox struggled. Both Toronto and the New York Yankees ranked in the top-five in hitting and the Sox had a bottom-10 pitching staff in 2022. According to Baseball Reference, they had a 5.23 cumulative ERA against the AL East in 2022, the worst mark against any division they faced. In other words, when they went up against great hitting they didn’t have the pitching to combat the juggernauts.
2023 Looks Better
Their division record between 2022 and 2023 is not so much “day and night,” but rather “dawn and daytime.” Going into the All-Star break, the Sox are 16-11 against the AL East, 45-43 overall, and they sit in last place in the division, 11 back from the Rays.
Holistically, the improvements are apparent, but there are some odd discrepancies. After some abysmal stretches last year against Toronto and New York, the Sox are a combined 12-1 against them this year and 7-0 against the Blue Jays alone. However, they are 4-10 against the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay, the two teams leading the division, and 1-7 against the Rays alone.
Unlike in 2022, the Sox are the ones showing resiliency, winning nine of those 16 games after being down at some point.
Why Have They Been Better?
Some of it is injury luck. The Sox did not have to face Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodon, or Nestor Cortes in any of those games throughout both series. As we already know, the Yankees are bottom three in runs scored since Judge went down with the unforeseen toe injury.
And while the Sox have seemingly dominated Toronto on the surface, some of the individual games indicate some more luck was involved.
According to Baseball Reference, four out of Boston’s seven victories against the Blue Jays were one-run games and the Sox were losing at some point in at least five of the seven games. Also, at least two of those games required late-game heroics, including one on July 1 that ended in Bo Bichette being thrown out at the plate by Alex Verudgo, which prevented the tying run from scoring.
The Tampa matchup, meanwhile, has been pretty lopsided so far. The Rays are outscoring the Red Sox 45-25 in the eight games they’ve played. The Baltimore series, on the other hand, has been about even.
What Does This Mean?
A lot of these stats indicate that some of the bad division luck from last year has transitioned to some good luck. But can that carry the Red Sox to a better division record this year?
The team’s pitching staff tells me they could, but only under the right circumstances. According to Baseball Reference, the Sox have a cumulative ERA of 4.46 against the rest of the division, much better than in 2022. However, it’s worth noting that the 2.00 ERA against the Yankees pads those stats a bit, especially when you consider Judge’s absence.
How Does It Compare?
Compared to the rest of the division, the Sox are third in ERA against the AL East but only.01 point behind the Rays for second. So, yeah, better pitching helps.
Good hitting also helps and is an even larger reason why the Red Sox are staying afloat in a difficult division. As of July 7, they have a .284 batting average against AL East opponents, the best mark out of all five teams.
That said, the Sox sit in last place in the division for a reason, and a big reason is because of the broader stats. According to Baseball Reference, they rank last in the AL East in 2023 pitching and hitting WAR against all MLB teams, while Tampa, Toronto, and Baltimore all sit in the top half of the league in hitting. Only the Yankees have struggled just as much as them (18th in hitting and 19th in pitching).
The Lowdown
So, is the recent success against certain division opponents more of an anomaly or is it the 2023 norm? After a great outer-division record in 2022, the Sox are 29-32 against those other teams this year. Not great, but they do have the most wins against teams with winning records in 2023, so not all is terrible.
But again, their division success is mainly due to great records against only two of those AL East teams, and minor good luck has something to do with that success. Some of the same problems from last year still arise in spurts, especially against other teams outside the division, and the stats show it.
The last couple months of the year will be telling, but especially a stretch in September where the Sox play 13 games in a row against division opponents, including a four-game series against the Yankees.
By then, Judge should be back, and teams will be clawing their way to a playoff spot. It will be interesting to see if Boston is one of those teams still fighting. Much like last year, that hope may hinge on how well Boston does against some of these AL East rivalries.
Main photo credits:
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
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