Gerrit Cole started the season with a bang as he made six starts in March/April to the tune of a 1.11 ERA. He won the AL Pitcher of the Month award and his Cy Young campaign was off to the races. Lo and behold, the month of May was a big struggle. In arguably his worst month in pinstripes, Cole made six starts with a 5.18 ERA. Coming into June, Cole sported a 2.93 ERA and 3.68 FIP. He was not looking like one of the League’s best pitchers. Once the calendar flipped to June, it all seemingly turned around. Cole has a 1.78 ERA and 2.49 FIP in four starts this month, more closely resembling the top-tier pitcher he was at the start of the season.
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Gerrit Cole Cy Young Case
Rough May
As the ace of the New York Yankees, Cole has vacillated between being the best pitcher in the sport and somewhat underwhelming in his first three seasons with the club. Based on how the year started, 2023 was shaping up to be his best year in pinstripes. However, a familiar narrative has developed as Cole’s rough month of May brought him back down into that “underwhelming” category. Even the best pitchers in the world have months where they post a 5.00+ ERA. It’s not just the runs allowed, but there were things to be concerned about. Cole allowed two or more walks in each of his six starts in May. He allowed multiple homeruns in four of those six starts. This was especially surprising as Cole hadn’t allowed a home run at all in his first seven starts.
As Cole went from someone who was the clear Cy Young favorite to not even top-5, the contrast in performance was stark. The competition was stiff as he faced the Tampa Bay Rays twice, the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Guardians, and San Diego Padres. Yet, Cole is good enough to shut down an opposing offense. It was tough to figure out why Cole was struggling. His pitch usage in May was virtually the same as it was in April. But his command was much worse as both his walk rate and barrel rate against his fastball skyrocketed. Cole is at his worst when he’s unable to command his fastball. In May, the whiff rate on his fastball was 20% and the put-away rate was 21%. However, in April the whiff rate and put-away rate were much higher at 25.4% and 25.9%, respectively. When’s Cole fastball isn’t working, he is much easier to attack.
Bounceback in June
Gerrit Cole in June:
4 starts, 1.78 ERA, 4 BB, 27 K 😤 pic.twitter.com/FYytUi1xDz
— Yankees Videos (@snyyankees) June 21, 2023
It’s safe to say, Cole has faced some really potent offenses thus far in June. At any point in the season, allowing a combined five earned runs in 25 1/3 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, and Seattle Mariners would be considered a rousing success. Even in his worst start this month, he allowed seven hits and two runs in six innings against Boston. He walked one batter against six strikeouts and struggled at times to put batters away. What’s notable about this start is that he was able to limit a potent Red Sox offense to two runs despite not having his best stuff. Prior to that, Cole allowed one run against a Dodgers offense that has the 4th-best wRC+ in the league this season. Even if the Mets and Mariners have been underwhelming this year, they still have several hitters that can do some real damage.
His most recent start against Seattle, by Baseball-Reference’s game score metric, was his third-best start of the season. Cole threw 7 1/3 innings with four hits, one run, one walk, and eight strikeouts. He ended his night by striking out five consecutive batters. On a night in which the Yankees desperately needed a win, their ace came through. Pitcher wins do not necessarily equate to value or skill. However, Cole has been the victim of low run-support as his offense has only scored more than three runs for him only once this month. The fact that he even has a 2-1 win-loss record this month is telling when it comes to how well he has pitched.
What has Changed?
So what exactly has changed for Cole to help propel him back into the AL Cy Young race? Well, his whiff rate and put-away rate on his fastball are even higher than they were in April. Sitting at 29.6% and 26.1%, respectively. Opposing batters are slugging .232 against his batters, whereas it was .522 in May. He is also producing his best results of the entire season against his slider, which has always been his second-best pitch, with hitters slugging a minuscule .100 against that pitch. The most notable change between his first two months and June is his pitch usage.
He threw his fastball 56.3% of the time in March/April, and 53.7% in May, but that has jumped up to 61.2% this month, His slider usage is very similar to May, up from 23.1% to 23.6%. It is in the rest of his pitches that we see a stark contrast between June and earlier in the season. Cole threw his cutter 0.3% in the first two months but has thrown it 5.2% of the time in June. His curveball usage has decreased from 15.4% to 14.1%, to now at 5.2%. There is also a difference in his changeup usage as he threw it nearly 9% in the first two months but that is now down at 4.7%. Changing his entire pitch usage has no doubt played a role in his performance this month.
Where Cole Stands in the Cy Young Race
Between Nathan Eovaldi, Sonny Gray, Shohei Ohtani, Framber Valdez, Kevin Gausman, and Shane McClanahan the Cy Young race is pretty wide open. Cole has a lot of competition that he’ll have to outpitch if he wants to win his first career Cy Young award. Considering the track record of some of the pitchers ahead of him in this race, winning the award might be much more doable than it seems at this moment. Regardless, let’s see where Cole ranks in the AL by various pitching metrics. His 2.64 ERA ranks fourth in the AL while his 3.37 FIP ranks seventh. Cole’s strikeout numbers are lower than what they have been yet his 9.64 K/9 still ranks tenth in the League. His 99.0 IP is tied with Valdez for second in the League while his 2.1 fWAR ranks seventh. On the other hand, by bWAR, Cole’s 3.3 leads the AL.
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Final Thoughts
On the whole, it is clear Gerrit Cole has arguably been a top-5 pitcher in the AL and deserving of Cy Young consideration. His strong start to June has all but signaled that all is right in this Cole world again. He is the unquestioned leader of that Yankees pitching staff which has dealt with a myriad of issues. One thing that he has that most of his competition in the AL doesn’t have is a lengthy track record of health and durability. Even when not pitching his best, he finds ways to grind out innings, limit the damage, and put his team in the best position to win. Cole is bound to win a Cy Young at some point in his career. This month has provided a pathway for him to do so this season.
Main photo credits:
John Jones-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Gerrit Cole, Nathan Eovaldi, Sonny Gray, Shohei Ohtani, Framber Valdez, Kevin Gausman, Shane McClanahan
