The 2023 NL MVP race boasts some incredible baseball talent. There are some familiar names leading the discussion, but also some new names looking to win the award for the first time. Each candidate boasts a fantastic statistical resumé and a narrative that makes them look even more impressive. Ronald Acuña Jr. looks fully healthy from his torn ACL while Luis Arraez is chasing history. These are just two storylines to watch among the 2023 NL MVP candidates. Let’s get right into it.
The Top NL MVP Candidates for 2023
2B Luis Arraez (MIA)
Let’s start with the history-chaser himself, Miami Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez. In holding a current batting average of .399, Arraez has one of the highest averages through a team’s first 61 games since 1941. The Marlins traded for Arraez during the offseason, as they have been desperate for some help on offense. Arraez has been known as one of the best contact hitters in baseball, while not providing much value beyond that. However, with a .495 SLG, .945 OPS, a league-leading 161 OPS+, and 2.0 fWAR, Arraez is doing much more than just hitting singles. Beyond that, the Marlins boast a 33-28 record that places them second in the NL East.
Luis Arraez is chasing history. pic.twitter.com/kVnoeC18AK
— MLB (@MLB) June 6, 2023
With how impressive Arraez has been so far this season, signs still point to some regression. Arraez’s .414 BABIP is significantly higher than his .346 career BABIP, and he is outperforming his xwOBA by 50 points. Regardless, he still appears likely to lead the NL in hits and batting average and should post career highs across the board. This will for sure help him finish at least in the top 10 in NL MVP voting.
RF Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL)
The Atlanta Braves are poised to win the NL East for the sixth consecutive year. There are many reasons for this, but none greater than Ronald Acuña Jr., who is in the midst of the best year of his career. In 2019, Acuña nearly put up a 40-40 season with 41 home runs and 37 stolen bases. In 2021, things were looking even better through 82 games as he had 24 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a .990 OPS. He missed the rest of 2021 with a torn ACL and came back to only play 112 games in 2022, with a subpar performance (by his standards, .764 OPS and 112 OPS+).
So far in 2023, Acuña is doing it all. He leads the NL with 2.9 fWAR, 52 runs scored, 26 stolen bases, and a .970 OPS. He might very well put up a 30-50 season this year, which is highly impressive. Not to mention, Acuña’s .459 xwOBA is significantly higher than his .414 wOBA, meaning there could be even more excellence at the plate. This article is not meant to rank the 2023 NL MVP candidates, but Acuña looks like the favorite right now.
C Sean Murphy (ATL)
Let’s stay in the NL East and discuss the newest standout for the Braves, catcher Sean Murphy. He was traded to the Braves in a three-team trade over the offseason and immediately signed a six-year, $73 million extension. Murphy has been one of baseball’s best catchers for years. In four seasons with the Oakland Athletics, he posted a .236/.326/.439 batting line, good for a .755 OPS and 115 OPS+. Considering the state of catchers today, this made him one of the better offensive catchers in the league. However, his batting line so far this season is .289/.394/.543, which equates to a .937 OPS and 150 OPS+.
Unlike Arraez or Acuña, Murphy may not be leading the league in any statistical category, but he’s having an all-around impressive season. His 2.8 fWAR ranks second in NL, his .404 wOBA ranks third, and his 38 runs batted in ranks eighth. There is real statistical reason to believe Murphy can keep this up as his expected numbers (.301 xBA, .587 xSLG, .424 xwOBA) are even greater than his actual numbers. He is not just on pace for the best season of his career, but looks set to be one of the best players in baseball this year, and will boast a strong case for being the best catcher in baseball.
1B Freddie Freeman (LAD)
Freddie Freeman continues to shine bright in Hollywood with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Freeman is so incredible every year that it’s starting to get boring. In 2022, Freeman finished fourth in NL MVP voting with a .325/.407/.511 line while leading the NL or majors in runs, hits, doubles, and on-base percentage. So far in 2023, Freeman is leading the NL in doubles and total bases while putting up a .331/.402/.558 line. This is good for a .960 OPS and 156 OPS+. Freeman’s 2.6 fWAR rank 4th in the National League, further proving his excellence at hitting the baseball. 2023 is also a milestone year for Freeman as he just hit his 300th career home run and is closing in on 2,000 career hits. This has been yet another excellent season in a Hall of Fame career for Freddie Freeman, and he is a prime candidate for NL MVP.
RF Mookie Betts (LAD)
Mookie Betts is having another excellent season that places him among the best in the sport. In taking one look at his Baseball Savant page, Betts is clearly one of the best players in the league this season. His .257/.362/.532 slash line, .893 OPS, and 137 OPS+ might not look quite like MVP-caliber numbers. However, he is fifth in the NL in home runs (15), fourth in runs scored (45), and third in fWAR (2.6). His .257 batting average looks disappointing, but there is potential for positive regression considering his career-low .258 BABIP.
It’s not just his all-around excellence that propels his case. Betts is on an upward trajectory after a slow start to the season. With a .781 OPS in March/April, .958 OPS in May, and an even stronger start to June, Betts’ season numbers look to just get better. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are the driving forces behind the division-leading Dodgers.
Honorable Mentions
While Acuña, Arraez, Betts, Freeman, and Murphy represent the top NL MVP candidates so far in 2023, there are a few other players worth mentioning. Juan Soto may only be 11th in the NL in fWAR (1.9) to go along with a .248 batting average. However, he has been scorching hot over his last 33 games. Posting a .303/.469/.578 batting line, he’s looking like peak Soto again. Paul Goldschmidt won the NL MVP last year as he led the league in SLG (.578), OPS (.981), and OPS+ (177). Don’t count him out as he has begun 2023 with a .292/.390/.504 batting line and a 147 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR that both rank seventh in the NL.
Pete Alonso leads the NL with 21 home runs and 47 RBI, and he might lead the league in both figures. If the New York Mets are able to turn it around, Alonso will be a big reason why and he’ll be sure to receive some MVP votes. Nolan Gorman and Corbin Carroll have also been fantastic this year, but there is one pitcher worth highlighting, Spencer Strider. As a rookie in 2022, Strider struck out 202 batters in only 131 1/3 innings. So far in 2023, Strider has 113 Ks in 69 2/3 innings (14.6 K/9). For those keeping track, that’s 315 strikeouts in 201 1/3 innings since the start of 2022. Combining his strikeout prowess with a 2.97 ERA and 2.59 FIP, Strider is bound to receive MVP votes if he remains healthy this year.
Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Players Mentioned: Luis Arraez, Ronald Acuña Jr., Sean Murphy, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Corbin Carroll, Spencer Strider
