Dansby Swanson is on a tear right now. That, in a nutshell, is the article. Of course, more needs to be said, but no truer words were ever spoken. It is thanks to his good performance that the Atlanta Braves have won so much recently. At the time of writing, they have been victors in 11 of 13 contests and have gone 19-11 since the All-Star break. During that stretch, they’re hitting nearly .260 as a team with 264 hits. They’ve launched 51 homers with 160 RBIs as a team. They’re slugging .455 and have 45 doubles. However, the star of all of this has been Swanson. Up until now, he was something of an offensive liability. However, he has turned into an asset. So, let’s dive into his season and see where he’s been, where he is now, and predict where he’s going.
April: A Tough Start for Dansby Swanson
Swanson’s season began in rough fashion. His bat was colder than ice, picking up a mere two hits in the first five games. The rest of his April did not fare better, as he hit .189 (18-95) with two homers, seven RBIs, and a startling 31 strikeouts. His WPA and wRC+ were in the negative (-0.581 & -100, respectively) and he walked an abysmal seven times. Not even his BABIP offered much hope, as it rested at .258. The chances of saving his season were slim, even at this point. However, if we look at some of his plate discipline, we can see his regression. He was swinging right at half of the pitches he saw in this month. Over 27% of those pitches were outside of the strike zone. So, he had returned to his former self. He simply swung too often at too many bad pitches.
May: A Resurgence
The month of May was much kinder to Dansby Swanson. He hit .290 for the month with six homers and 14 RBIs. He slugged .559 for the month, improving his overall mark by over 100 points. His wRC+ jumped to 120 and he had a wOBA of .356, up from .260 in April. Even his BABIP soared to .344. In short, the month of May and Swanson had a terrific offensive partnership going. Unfortunately, there was the same old caveat in his offensive approach. He actually swung at more pitches in this month. His O-Swing rate jumped to 30% and he struck out 29 more times. Patience continued to be an issue, as he only walked five times in the whole month. While he did make more contact, he also had a ground ball percentage near 38%. So, despite disciplining himself a pinch, his mechanical issues remained. Thankfully, they did not affect him nearly as negatively.
June: Regression
In June, Swanson experienced yet another severe regression. His monthly average fell to .216 and his OBP rested under .300. He still slugged .422 and had 13 RBI, but his wRC+ dropped to 85. He wasn’t producing as much as he had, and it was extremely noticeable. However, this time, circumstances were slightly different. His BABIP for the month was .254 and his wOBA was a very solid .301. He was also hitting the ball hard just over 48% of the time. Strikeouts were still an issue (30), but at least he was putting the ball in play. Unfortunately, 52.8% of his hits were pull hits against 16.7% to the opposite field. His ground ball average shot up to over 44%. So, while the ball was in play, it wasn’t going where it needed to go.
July: The Turning Point
July would be a massive turning point for the Braves’ shortstop. He hit .298 for the month while slugging .596. He posted an OPS of .944 with 31 hits and 23 RBIs in 26 games. Seven homers, 10 doubles, and 16 runs scored topped everything off. His advanced stats were much better as well. A .338 BABIP, a wRC+ of 140, and a wOBA of .387 prove his value over this stretch of games. He also seemed to exercise more patience at the plate. He still struck out 26 times, but he was swinging a lot less (45.9%) and he made contact 76% of the time. Furthermore, he lowered his swinging strike percentage from 12.8% down to 11%. It may not seem like much, but this is a vast improvement over where he was.
August: A Scorching Month
However, the month of August has been torrid for Dansby. As the team has gone 12-3 so far, he is hitting .355 and slugging .597. He has 22 hits, 14 runs scored, and a .976 OPS. His overall average has jumped from .246 to .263. Even more impressive is that his wRC+ is 159 and his wOBA is an astonishing .417. While he has only hit four homers, he has drastically lowered his strikeouts. He has whiffed a mere six times in 62 at-bats. His swinging-strike rate has lowered to 8.8%, and he’s making contact over 80% of the time. The concerning part here is that he’s actually swinging at more pitches. That said, 28.3% of the time, he’s hitting the ball hard and a quarter of his hits are to the opposite field. In short, the team would not be where it is without Swanson’s massive contribution.
Dansby Swanson: Deja Vu
The problem here is that we’ve seen this in the past from Swanson. Yes, he will make leaps and bounds for a month or two. He’ll look like an MVP candidate during these stretches. His bat will come to life, his glove will follow suit, and Braves fans everywhere will breathe a sigh of relief. However, as soon as they come, they will leave. Escape is popular among these kinds of streaks, leaving a player fumbling about in the dark. They wait for the next success, stumbling along the way, trying to string things together until it happens. So, the question remains as to whether or not Swanson can break the status quo. He could be considered one of the best shortstops in the league, if not for these inevitable time loops. One day, we get the Swanson that swings at everything. The next, we get the Swanson that hits everything a country mile. Only time will tell which one we get for the rest of the season.
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