There are a number of interesting stories and paths to the 2021 MLB draft, and Louisiana State’s Jaden Hill might have the most up and down. Injuries have ravaged the right-handed pitcher’s college career. Despite all the injuries, Hill is the 33rd ranked prospect in the draft, according to MLB.com.
Physically, Hill has the mound presence. Listed at 6’4,” 234 lbs, the 21-year-old pitcher can be an intimidating figure on the mound. He is described as strong, physical, and athletic. Hailing from Arkansas, he was the top prep prospect in the state in 2018. Scouts believed him to be a top three-rounds talent, but Hill wanted to go to Louisiana State. Because of his commitment to LSU, he was drafted in the 38th round and did not sign. Unfortunately for Hill, injuries really held him back in his college career. Overall in his college career, he is 3-3 with a 4.21 ERA in 51 1/3 innings, striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings.
Strengths
According to MLB.com, on the 20-80 scale, his fastball is a 65, his changeup is a 60, his slider is a 55, his control is a 50, and overall he is a 50. Hill’s fastball is his greatest strength. It is generally in the upper 90s, and has reached 99 in a game before. He has always possessed a plus changeup, which is in the mid-80s. The pitch has plenty of tumble and can be a devastating pitch. He has a slider that is generally mid-80s that has been a plus offering at times. However, it was below average in 2021.
Weaknesses
The biggest weakness for Hill is his injury history, specifically to the elbow. The misfortune began in his first season at Louisiana State, in 2019. He was limited to just two starts, ten innings in total, due to elbow issues. He appeared in four games in 2020 as a reliever, pitching 11.2 scoreless innings, striking out 17 batters, and collecting two saves. However, the pandemic cut the season short. The elbow came into play again in 2021. Hill made just seven starts, 29 2/3 innings in total, posting a 6.67 ERA before the elbow gave out. Tommy John surgery was necessary and his season was over in April.
Before Hill’s most recent elbow injury, there was a very good chance he was going to go in the top-five picks. However, injuries have put a dent in that. Another potential weakness is his inconsistencies with his slider. The pitch was below average in 2021. His fastball life and command were also inconsistent in 2021, however, scouts think it could be because of his elbow issues. Even with the question marks surrounding him, there is immense talent in that arm, which is why he is still among the 35 top draft prospects.
MLB Comparison
There are some scouts who believe Jaden Hill profiles more as a reliever than a starter. In this case, a current MLB player comparison is Devin Williams. Hill is bigger than Williams physically, but the pitch arsenal is similar. The 2020 NL Rookie of the Year is known for his fastball/changeup combo. In fact, 96% of Williams pitches are fastballs and changeups. Hill is very similar, as his strengths are his fastball and changeup. This combo is where he finds most of his success.
Overall, Hill’s command is solid, but improvements in command would go a long way to improve consistency. The injury issues will remain a question until he can prove he can stay healthy for a full season. His starting future could be in question because of these issues. However, if he can’t last as a starter, he could move to the bullpen. Scouts believe his upside could be huge as a reliever, which he was in 2020 before the pandemic ended that season. There are a number of question marks surrounding his draft potential, but the talent Jaden Hill possesses is undeniably there.
Players mentioned: Jaden Hill, Devin Williams
Main Photo: Embed from Getty Images
