Nick Nelson is not a name that casual baseball fans know. In fact, it is not a name that most casual Yankees fans know. However, it is time for Yankees fans to get familiar with him. In what was a somewhat surprising call-up, Nelson made his debut in 2020. Nelson is a 25-year old right-handed pitcher who was drafted in the fourth round back in 2016. It looks like he will claim one of the last bullpen spots for the New York Yankees in 2021. Let’s look at who Nick Nelson is as a pitcher and how he can play a big role for the Yankees bullpen this upcoming season.
Nelson’s Development
Nelson came up through the system as a starter. While the team will use him primarily as a reliever, he was pretty good as a starter in the minors. While pitching at three different levels, Nelson’s minor league breakout came in 2018. He pitched a cumulative 121 and two-thirds innings, striking out 144 batters, allowed only three home runs, and produced a 3.55 ERA. His development continued in 2019 as he reached Triple-A. He posted a stellar 2.81 ERA while striking out 114 batters in 89 and two-thirds innings. In all, Nelson’s minor league career was pretty good as he posted a 3.65 ERA, 10.4 K/9, and only 14 home runs allowed in 333 and one-third innings. Despite all this, he had suffered control issues as he posted 4.8 BB/9, which perhaps signaled that he might not be a starter long-term.
Despite the good minor league numbers, he was not among the Yankees top-30 prospects coming into 2020. The team’s system is rich in hard-throwing right-handers whose biggest flaw is control, thus Nelson did not entirely stand out. This is what made his call-up to the majors in 2020 somewhat surprising, despite injuries to the pitching staff. However, despite the numbers, the Yankees saw a lot of great things from Nelson in 2020.
2020 Season
The 2020 numbers were not great, to say the least. Nick Nelson put up a 4.79 ERA, 5.56 FIP, 1.7 HR/9, and 4.8 BB/9 in 20 and two-thirds innings pitched for the Yankees. Additionally, his 7.8 K/9 figure was the lowest of his professional career. He pitched multiple innings in seven of his 11 appearances, throwing as many as three innings and 52 pitches. He had one horrific outing that ruined his numbers as he allowed six earned runs in 1 and two-thirds innings on August 5th against the Philadelphia Phillies. After that outing, he pitched 16 innings to the tune of a 2.81 ERA. He mainly appeared in games in which the Yankees were losing, serving as a long man that gave the bullpen a bit of a rest. In all, his 2020 numbers do not jump off the page or inspire much confidence. However, there is a lot to like about Nelson when digging into his analytics.
Advanced Metrics
Nelson has a pretty simple four-pitch mix. In 2020, he threw his fastball 57.2% of the time, his changeup at 24.6%, slider at 11.8%, and curveball at 6.4%. What this shows is that he was primarily a fastball-changeup pitcher, but can mix in a breaking ball as well. His fastball averaged 96.3 mph, which ranked in the 90th percentile in the league. Despite the elite velocity, his fastball spin ranked in the abysmal 13th percentile. This explains why hitters absolutely crushed his fastball, as they hit .314 and slugged .629 against that pitch. Despite throwing his fastball so often, Nelson’s two best pitches are his changeup and slider. Opponents batted .192 with a .308 SLG and .268 xwOBA off the changeup and hit .267 with a .267 SLG and .299 xwOBA off the slider. These two pitches produced elite results and demonstrate that perhaps a change in strategy from Nelson will make him a much better pitcher. His changeup had a whiff rate of 32.8% and put-away rate of 18.9% while his slider generated a 34.8% whiff rate and 23.8% put-away rate. Not to mention, his slider had elite movement both horizontally and vertically, make it a well-above-average pitch.
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Looking Ahead to 2021
The New York Yankees seemingly have six of the eight bullpen spots already locked up. Even with Zach Britton on the shelf, this bullpen still looks very promising. Nelson will be utilized in a way similar to 2020. He figures to get the bulk of his innings with the Yankees up or down by a lot. However, do not be surprised to see Nelson pitch in some higher leverage innings down the stretch if he performs very well. 2021 is already starting out very nicely for Nelson as he has thrown five scoreless innings thus far in spring training. Considering his upside and advanced metrics, Nelson’s ceiling in ’21 and beyond can be that of Tommy Kahnle.
Looking at his repertoire, Nelson’s two main pitches are similar to that of Kahnle’s. In fact, Kahnle also had much better results on his changeup than his fastball. In 2019, hitters posted a .287 BA, .553 SLG, and .363 xwOBA against his fastball. However, they posted a .130 BA, .203 SLG, and .171 xwOBA against his changeup. While Nelson is not quite at that level of dominance with his changeup, the potential for that type of performance is definitely there. He has a very good slider and changeup, so if he can find a way to maximize his pitch mix, his ceiling is very high.
Final Thoughts
Only time will tell if Nelson can improve his results enough to turn himself into a high-leverage reliever. Learning to make the most of his secondary pitches will be the key to unlocking his potential. This could be as simple as throwing his fastball less or improving his pitch sequencing. Regardless, Nick Nelson is a name Yankees fans should get used to. Even if he does not become a trusted high-leverage reliever this year, he still brings a lot to the table and will provide much value to the Yankees in 2021.
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Players Mentioned: Nick Nelson, Tommy Kahnle
