Michael Wacha is an interesting case for a 2021 contract. His 2020 campaign wasn’t great, but there are few interesting underlying numbers. Bad luck and the unusual season suppressed what might have been a solid season with the New York Mets.
The former first-round selection from 2011 has very average career numbers. Wacha has one All-Star appearance in 2015, but otherwise has a 4.01 ERA and 796 strikeouts in 901 2/3 innings. He has the profile of a solid innings-eater thrower with only one season with more than 180 innings, but four over 100 innings. Wacha has started 158 games out of 173 appearances.
A team knows what they are getting; a 4.01 FIP doesn’t point to massive good luck or bad luck over that many innings, but 2020 showed some interesting things. His strikeout rate improved and the walks fell into the top seven percent of the league, per statcast. An adjustment to throw far more cutters and eliminate the curveball from his repertoire were huge contributing factors. That is the sort of mid-career strategy change that should interest the right team.
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs are in cost-cutting mode, having declined Jon Lester‘s club option and non-tendering several players. However, giving Michael Wacha a contract can be a low-cost option to provide solid innings for an unproven back half of the rotation. Chicago has Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks as anchors, but the rest of their projected rotation has just over 300 combined innings in MLB. That is a lot of uncertainty for a team that still has a competitive core in the NL Central.
It doesn’t hurt that Wacha has years of experience throwing in the NL Central. Some of the rosters have changed since he left the St. Louis Cardinals after 2019, but he knows how pitches behave in those ballparks. That could be the sort of non-quantifiable edge that gives Chicago one more year of competitiveness while they figure out how to approach finances and roster construction.
Colorado Rockies
This signing would depend heavily on a possible Jon Gray trade. The two aren’t exact mirrors of each other, but they might trade Gray to save money. That would create an opening for Wacha’s cutter, which is something no Colorado Rockies starter threw in 2020. A greater mixture of starter offerings is one strategy Colorado can employ to keep lineups guessing while they work on improving other aspects of their team. Wacha only cost the Mets $3 million last year. A contract with similar value could be ideal if the Rockies want to shake up the rotation without sacrificing too much in terms of experience and production.
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels need to chase every marginal upgrade to starting pitching they can. Six pitchers started at least five games for LA in 2020, but they combined for just 3.5 WAR per FanGraphs. Wacha would have outperformed two of those six with more innings on the mound. The Angels have no clear direction with a new general manager, so it’s anyone’s guess how he and ownership will try and improve the team to the point that Mike Trout finally gets back to the postseason. Few teams need starting pitching as bad as this one, so the marriage is obvious if they want to spend a small amount of money for an experienced one.
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