It is no secret that the Cincinnati Reds have a very good offense on paper. It is also no secret that the Colorado Rockies could be looking to rebuild. Gold Glove third baseman Nolan Arenado has been on the block for awhile. Now shortstop Trevor Story‘s name has popped up in some trade rumors, with the Reds being a possible suitor. Let’s take a look at a possible trade between the two and how Story fits in Cincinnati.
Background on Trevor Story
Story was drafted with the 45th pick of the 2011 MLB Draft by the Colorado Rockies. He didn’t debut until 2016 after fighting his way through the minors, but he showed up with a bang. On Opening Day, he hit two homers and drove in four. Over the next three games, he hit four more homeruns, making him the record holder for most home runs through the first six games of a career. Ever since, he has been a staple at shortstop for the Rockies, making a deadly combo with the aforementioned Arenado on the left side of the infield.
In 2019, Story became the fastest shortstop ever to hit 100 career homeruns, accomplishing the mark at 448 games. In his first five years of his young career, he carries a .277/.343/.535 slash line with 134 homeruns. Not only one to swing the bat, though, his defense has been superb. Compare his 2019 season to Fernando Tatis Jr.‘s 2019 season in the field, and Story was much better. In 60 less games, Story posted 10 less errors with a 90% success rate and a 3% added success rate. Tatis only had an 83% success rate and a -4% added success rate. Story had 15 OAA (Outs Above Average), good for 7th in the MLB. Tatis had -12 OAA.
How He Fits with the Reds
In 2019 Jose Iglesias held much of the duties at shortstop. He was a REALLY good fielder and held his own at the plate, but the Reds passed on him for Freddy Galvis, whom they acquired off waivers from Toronto late in the year. In 2019 and 2020 combined, Galvis posted a -3 OAA, with an 82% success rate and a -4% added success rate. His offensive output was .226/.298/.408 with 12 homers and 32 RBI. Trevor Story in the same time frame posted the aforementioned defensive stats but also posted a .293/.362/.537 slash with 46 homeruns and 113 RBI. Story also stole 38 bases while being caught 11 times while Galvis had one steal and was thrown out twice.
Story fits nicely into a Reds lineup that needs a bat and glove at shortstop. He gives the Reds a dependable guy up the middle and one who carries his weight at the plate as well. Some will claim he is better because of Coors Field, but that isn’t true, as he hits well enough on the road to snuff out that claim. He also makes up for his “lack” of road hitting with his defense as well. Because of the size of Great American Ballpark, Story would be just fine hitting the baseball in Cincinnati.
Looking for the Trade Pieces
The Reds need a shortstop, but they don’t want to overpay for one. Story has one year remaining on his contract, which is worth $18.5 Million in adjusted salary. That is very doable for the Reds, especially if they can’t re-sign Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer. They could simply do what they did for Sonny Gray, which is trade for him and give him a new three-year deal. The question remains, though: Whom would the Reds part ways with to acquire the Rockies shortstop?
There are three untouchables, in this author’s mind, in the Reds farm system: Catcher Tyler Stephenson, left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo, and Outfielder Austin Hendrick. Everyone else is liable to be traded. The Reds have a plethora of infielders and pitchers to deal with in the minors, so someone like Jonathan India, Hunter Greene, and Michael Siani could all be pieces to be moved for Story. Tony Santillan and Tyler Callihan are also names that could be moved as well.
Here is the trade prediction, if there is one that comes to fruition between the two teams.
Reds Receive: SS Trevor Story, 5th round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft
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