2020 was not kind to James Paxton. His ERA ballooned thanks to the limited number of outings and an injury that cut his season short in September. The man known as “The Big Maple” has been very good for much of his career, but this past year with the New York Yankees certainly impacts his earning potential.
James Paxton has been quite fine since his debut in 2013. He has no awards or all-star appearances, but a 57-33 record and 3.58 ERA in 753 innings is nothing to ignore. The main concern is that the 31-year-old has never been a true workhorse. His heaviest workload came in 2018 when the lefty threw 160 and one-third innings. Otherwise, no season has broken past 151 innings. The lack of innings through a pitcher’s prime years is not the hallmark of a front-rotation arm. It’s more likely that Paxton will take a spot somewhere in the middle of a rotation as the third or fourth starter with upside. Plenty of throwers are productive into their 30s in that role. Paxton can definitely be one of them if his new team manages his workload correctly and gets a little bit of luck on top of things.
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels should be thinking about every productive pitcher on the market. They have failed miserably when it comes to getting Mike Trout to the postseason and pitching is a big part of that. Los Angeles could certainly use Paxton’s familiarity with the American League West on top of his skills.
Griffin Canning has the most potential to be the staff ace going into 2021. However, the rest of the rotation has some serious question marks. Dylan Bundy isn’t guaranteed to post another ERA below 4.00 and Andrew Heaney is very average as a #3 starter. Paxton could probably compete with both of those for a spot behind Canning and form a competent, if not inspiring rotation.
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers are another team that could use a veteran arm as it competes in the AL West. They have far more depth at the top of the rotation, but Paxton definitely solidifies the back half. Texas revived a struggling Lance Lynn in recent seasons. There’s no reason they can’t do it again with the Canadian southpaw.
Lynn takes the top spot for Texas with Kyle Gibson after that. Then the question is some combination of Jordan Lyles, Kolby Allard, or Kyle Cody. That trio is interesting but didn’t produce much in 2020. They combined for just .8 WAR in just over 112 innings. Acquiring Paxton would do wonders to boost the level of confidence fans have after Lynn.
San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres have an obvious opening for James Paxton going into 2021. Mike Clevinger’s Tommy John surgery creates a hole in the rotation that is tailor-made for 130-160 Paxton innings. He might be no better than San Diego’s fifth starter, but he’d be perfect for that role.
He would fit right behind San Diego’s projected rotation of Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Zach Davies, and one of several others. That might be one of the best rotations in baseball, but every possible reinforcement is good when you’re looking at making a World Series run. The Padres have a few swing arms for the fourth and fifth spots, but Paxton would take one of those. That would push one of the team’s other talented arms to the bullpen to support that unit. This seems like too perfect of a match given where San Diego is in its competitive cycle.
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