Four years ago, the Chicago Cubs finally broke one of the biggest curses of all time. The Curse of the Billy Goat took the nation by storm. Its eventual downfall unleashed a celebration unlike any other. Joe Maddon became one of Chicago’s most beloved sports figures. Players like Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Willson Contreras became perennial favorites. Ben Zobrist became a hero to Cubs fans the world over. In short, 2016 was one of the best seasons in franchise history.
Now, the question is when it will happen again. At this point, the Cubs seem to be floating around in the NL Central. They’ve had a rocky road lately. They’ve been to the playoffs twice in the last three seasons only to be eliminated. Thus, Cubs fans continue to ask themselves when their team will return to the World Series. Could first-year manager David Ross lead them back, or will their tendency to act like a roller coaster do them in?
Offense
Let’s begin with the offense. The bulk should come from the steady bats of Contreras, Baez, Rizzo, and Bryant. That foursome posted a collective batting average of .283 last year with 111 home runs and 320 RBI. They posted WAR of 3.1, 6.0, 3.8, and 3.7, respectively. So, they should account for a lot of production at the plate this year. Kyle Schwarber can also provide a huge amount of power, but his strikeout numbers are a concern. He led the team in home runs last year with 38 but tied Baez with 156 strikeouts. If he can retool his approach at the plate, he could become an even more valuable asset.
Then there’s the battle over the middle infield. David Bote, Nico Hoerner, and veteran Jason Kipnis are all vying for spots. Bote played in 127 games for the team last year, hitting .257 with 11 homers and 41 RBI but was replaced by Hoerner in September. He posted 44 walks, 93 strikeouts, and a .362 OBP. His OPS+ was 103. His WAR was 1.6. So, he put together a solid season. But, with the talented Hoerner and the veteran Kipnis looming, Bote might find himself lost in a crowd of potential starters.
The most intriguing thing about the offense is the hole in the outfield. Nicholas Castellanos was a masterful midseason pickup last year. He hit .321 in 51 games with Chicago, with 16 homers, 36 RBI, 21 doubles, 137 total bases, and an OPS of 1.002. With his departure to Cincinnati, that leaves a void that needs to be filled. The Cubs farm system is littered with capable options. Ian Miller could be called upon for some service, as he hit .382 in 17 spring training games this year. Then there’s offseason addition Steven Souza Jr., who hit .273 in 10 spring training games. Souza and Miller could potentially platoon until a more solid decision is reached.
Defense
Defensively, the Cubs posted a -0.9 dWAR last year, so there’s a lot of room for improvement. Baez was the only player on the team with an individual dWAR above 1.0. The next-best was Contreras at a 0.7. Collectively, the team committed 118 errors, second-most in the league, and had the third-lowest fielding percentage (.981). However, they did place in the top five in double plays turned (141), so there are glimpses of brilliance. Rizzo and Baez combined to help create those opportunities, along with Zobrist and Addison Russell with the latter two no longer on the team.
However, the primary concern still lies in the infield. Bote led the team with 16 errors last year and had a fielding percentage of .943. His dWAR was 0.2. Kris Bryant, who has never been known for his defensive prowess, committed 15 errors. His dWAR was -1.0. Baez also committed 15 errors, even though his dWAR was 3.3. In short, the Chicago Cubs middle infield either feasts on the opposition or hits a drought. This is a very dangerous game to play, and one that Cubs fans should keep an eye on throughout the season.
Pitching
When it comes to the pitching staff it’s a mixed bag. There are bright spots and areas for improvement. Last season, the team posted a 4.10 ERA, which was good for third in the league. But, they finished fifth in complete games (1), sixth in shutouts (1), 10th in saves (38), and 11th in innings pitched (1,442). They also finished with the third-most batters hit by a pitch (80) and the fourth most wild pitches (60). The team WHIP of 1.325 placed them 10th. However, their ERA+ was 109, tying them with the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds for third. So, it was a roller coaster ride, to say the least.
The brightest spot in the rotation was Kyle Hendricks, who went 11-10 with a 3.46 ERA and 150 strikeouts in 177 innings. He walked 32 batters and threw one wild pitch. However, he did hit nine batters so there was an erratic tinge to his pitching. Other than Hendricks, the other starters were middling. Jon Lester and Jose Quintana tied for the team lead with 13 wins. But they each had an ERA between 4.50 and 5.00. Yu Darvish kept his ERA under four and struck out 229 batters but hit 11 men and threw 11 wild pitches. If these veteran pitchers can get their game back, they could be formidable.
The rotation will have to do without Cole Hamels. Former Colorado Rockies starter Tyler Chatwood could provide some help in that regard. He did pitch to a 1.84 ERA in four spring training starts before the shutdown. There’s always the chance that he might flounder, but Wrigley Field is a lot different from Coors Field. The change of scenery might be what Chatwood needs to become a durable starter.
Bullpen
Then there’s the bullpen and the biggest surprise of all: Craig Kimbrel. The former All-Star had his worst season after coming to the Cubs in the middle of last year. He went 0-4 with a 6.53 ERA and 13 saves. His WHIP was 1.597, and his ERA+ was 69. It was a really small sample size, as he started late and only pitched in 23 games before injuries derailed his season. If he remains healthy, he could definitely bring a lot to the relief corps. However, with the departures of Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler, and a multitude of other bullpen pieces, the Cubs are going to need all the relief help they can get.
Overall
In a season that will be defined by only 60 games, the Chicago Cubs have just as great a shot as anyone. But, with only 60 games, their return to the postseason might be in jeopardy. Their roller-coaster team seems to have shifted in a negative fashion. The major issues are in the bullpen and the infield. The relief corps has been dismantled, and the team invited 22 non-roster players to audition for a spot. The team will have to rely on a mixture of young prospects and veterans like Kimbrel and Jeremy Jeffress to get through.
The infield is where a bulk of the offense comes from, but it’s also a source of the defensive issues the Cubs have. Baez, Bryant, and Bote are going to have to improve defensively. In Bote’s case, he is just searching for playing time with Kipnis and Hoerner in the mix. They have all the lumber in the world but hardly any leather to go with it. One day, they might play like the famous “$100,000 Infield” from Oakland Athletics lore. Then again, they might play as they’ve never seen a baseball before.
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