The Los Angeles Dodgers playoff odds are as good as they’ve ever been. According to Baseball Reference, the Dodgers have a league-best 22.6% chance to win the World Series. The Dodgers, of course, have won the National League pennant in each of the last two years but have yet to take home a World Series title in this millennium.
Los Angeles Dodgers Playoff Odds: Still World Series Favorites
The Dodgers are the World Series favorite, but not by much. Baseball Reference expects the Houston Astros to be the Dodgers’ primary competition, as they a 32.9% chance to win the American League pennant and an 18.3% chance to win the World Series. The Astros are the only other team within 10% percentage points of the Dodgers to win it all.
Part of this is that the Dodgers are simply worlds better than their National League competition. According to Baseball Reference, Los Angeles has an absurd 41.9% chance to win the pennant. This is ridiculous and just speaks to how talented the Dodgers are relative to the rest of the conference. The American League is objectively deeper, which ultimately helps the Dodgers. A team like Houston would take down another elite team like the Yankees to win it all, whereas the Dodgers just have to beat whichever team makes it out of the American League.
It’s worth noting that Fangraphs isn’t quite as high on the Dodgers. According to the advanced analytics website, the Dodgers “only” have a 17.3% chance to win the World Series. This is actually less than Houston’s 27.2% odds, but it’s still good for second-best in baseball. This discrepancy is likely caused by the philosophical differences between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. Fangraphs tends to believe that one-season success cannot be sustained and players will fall back to their career averages, while Baseball Reference places more value on what happens in-season. Cody Bellinger and several other Dodgers are having ridiculous seasons, and Fangraphs doesn’t believe that this success can continue. Only time will tell which projection is correct.
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