The saga is over. A slow, lacklustre MLB free agency reached its climax today, with the Philadelphia Phillies signing Bryce Harper to a 13-year, $330 million contract. After weeks of speculation, Harper decided to go with the NL franchise on the cusp of becoming World Series contenders. And the Phillies became the team that spent “stupid money.”
But the question worth asking is given the amount of money the Phillies are paying Harper for an extended period of time, is he worth it? Will the flashy, bearded player known for his appearances in Head and Shoulders commercials get this Phillies franchise back to World Series pandemonium? Let’s investigate this further.
Harper Shows Inconsistency at the Plate
While Bryce Harper did a superb job marketing himself as a big ticket free agent, his numbers the last few years prove otherwise. Here are his hitting stats the last five seasons:
- 2014: .273/.344/.423, 1.1 WAR
- 2015: .330/.460/.649, 10.0 WAR
- 2016: .243/.373/.441, 1.5 WAR
- 2017: .319/.413/.595, 4.7 WAR
- 2018: .249/.393/.496, 1.3 WAR
It is evident that in the MLB, Harper has had two stellar seasons, 2015 and 2017. But the succeeding year after the season where he produces, Harper experiences a significant drop off. Pitchers clearly have learned how to get Harper out, and the outfielder hasn’t shown a willingness to show variety at the plate in order to get on base. Here is his strikeout rate the last four seasons:
- 2015: 26.9 percent
- 2016: 23.1 percent
- 2017: 26.8 percent
- 2018: 31.4 percent
In 2015, Harper led the MLB in home runs with 42. But in the two seasons following, his home run total declined by almost half (24 in 2016 and 29 in 2017). In addition, Harper’s career postseason hitting line highlights his ineffectiveness in the playoffs (.211/.315/.487).
The Washington Nationals did not win a postseason series while Harper was there. But for a Philadelphia Phillies organization that is investing a large amount of money into their franchise player, it is not a comforting feeling to see inconsistent hitting production, coupled with very little offensive impact come October.
Phillies Are Stuck With Harper for the Rest of His Career
The old adage, “The Devil is in the Details,” eloquently can be referred to contract signings. Embedded within Bryce Harper’s mega contract are no opt out and no trade clauses. This highlights that until 2032, the Philadelphia Phillies will have Bryce Harper.
Why would Phillies management want to keep a player for this long? In the first half of the contract, Harper will be in his prime, where in theory he will be generating the best baseball production of his career. But the last half of this deal will demonstrate a Bryce Harper in decline.
With reduced offensive production, even if Harper waived his no-trade clause, which teams would want to give up their assets for him? It would be a bigger risk, rather than an award for opposing teams to give up future prospects for a potentially washed up star.
This proves why contracts with shorter terms are much more effective. Take the recent signing of Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado. Eight-years, $260 million. Last season, Arenado led the MLB in home runs with 38. He generated 110 RBIs and hit .297/.374/.561.
While he is also the face of the franchise, the contract structure is savvy because the Rockies are keeping Arenado in the years where he is at his best. As his contract nears its conclusion, the Rockies can have the option to re sign or trade him for value. Given the long-term structure of the Phillies contract with Harper, they won’t have that similar luxury.
Phillies Are Deeper Team; Will It Pay Off?
It is clear the Philadelphia Phillies are a deeper team now with Bryce Harper than they were 24 hours ago. The signing of Harper culminates a busy offseason for Philadelphia, where they traded for Jean Segura and J.T. Realmuto, extended Aaron Nola’s contract and signed Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson.
Acquiring Bryce Harper does not address Philadelphia’s pivotal problem of defense. Their minus-146 defensive runs saved was the worst in the MLB last season. Harper’s defense has been called into question; in 2018, he had a minus-26 DRS, the second worst in baseball. The only way Philadelphia’s defense can go is up. But it is still a primary concern for a team with World Series aspirations.
There is undoubtedly a lot of excitement in Philadelphia today. With Super Bowl winning quarterback for the Eagles Nick Foles poised to leave the City of Brotherly Love, he will now be replaced by a big time star in Bryce Harper. But the initial excitement and buzz will wear out if Harper does not perform. A fan base can only blame poor performance on injuries for so long. With how raucous and committed the Phillies fans are to their team, Harper may get a rude awakening if he does not instantly perform.
Harper got the long-term deal he desired. The Phillies and the city of Philadelphia hope the money pays off in the form of championship rings.
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