Being an Atlanta Braves fan has been a struggle. Since John Hart took over on September 22, 2014, Atlanta has traded away or released many fan favorites: Jason Heyward, Kris Medlen, Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, Craig Kimbrel, Melvin Upton Jr., Andrelton Simmons, Shelby Miller, Jason Grilli, Kelly Johnson (twice), and Jeff Francoeur, just to name a few. Not many players from the 2013 wild card qualifying Braves are left on the roster. The Braves have also changed managers, base coaches, bullpen coaches, bench coaches, and general managers. These changes have brought Atlanta a meager 135-188 record (a 42% winning percentage). In short, they have been garbage.
2017 Atlanta Braves: Are The Braves Going to be Good?
John Copolella, the Braves current GM has made it known that Atlanta has been disappointing. Yet, during this same time period, he has pointed to the teams he has tried to emulate, and the down years those teams suffered through in order to reach perennial playoff contention.
Coppy has done a good job of making his plan clear. Step 1, rebuild the farm system via trades, drafts, and international signing. Step 2, trade from an abundant prospect pool and acquire top tier, major league ready talent with long term team control. Step 3, develop the talented prospects into phenomenal major league talents. Step 4A, sign free agents that serve as reliable gap fillers until that minor league talent is ready to contribute for the big league club. Step 4B, trade or sign players that are big time major league contributors now. (See Matt Kemp, Sean Rodriguez, etc.).
But Are the Atlanta Braves Actually Going to be Good this Season?
To answer this question, you must first establish what a good/successful season for this upcoming seasons would actually be. If your expectations are for this year’s Atlanta team to win the World Series in 4 games, your view of success for this team is high. If your idea of a successful season is to win 70 games and finish above the Philadelphia Phillies, your expectations are most certainly low. If they are to be in the hunt for a wild card spot come October, you should be right on par.
What does that entail? In 2016, the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants won 87 games each to reach the NL Wild Card. 2015 saw the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs claim NL Wild Card spots with 98 and 97 wins, respectively.
While these may be lofty goals from the outset, “In the Hunt” means having a chance at securing a Wild Card berth around the beginning of September. Something Atlanta will have a chance at doing, if a few key players can replicate recent performances.
What Has to Happen
To be honest, a lot of components have to fall in place for this team to reach Wild Card contention this season. First, and most importantly, is the starting pitching has to get deeper into games. Copolella has already made it clear that the days of young guns vying for a spot in the starting five are done.
We don't. Opportunity time is over in 2017. You have to earn a rotation spot once we add free agents. https://t.co/X5yN09A6hy
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) September 13, 2016
With the acquisitions of Jaime Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and R.A. Dickey, Atlanta may finally have the innings eaters they need. Colon and Dickey have both pitched at least 169 innings since 2013. Garcia has not enjoyed the same longevity, yet tallied his most innings pitched last season, since 2011. Of course, Julio Teheran has shown the ability to pitch late in to games. Mike Foltynewicz has increased his IP each season he has been in Atlanta, and has the added luxury of maintaining his velocity well into the late seventh inning.
Even without any more additions, the Braves have a rotation that can be trusted headed in to SunTrust Park. They also have the added bonus of Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, Josh Collmenter and Lucas Sims to fill the spots that will inevitably become vacant via injury or trade.
While not all these players will have All-Star caliber seasons, they have all shown in recent years they can produce to an above average level. Pitching alone does not win championships (ask Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Greg Maddux). However, as the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees found out this past season, having quality starting pitching is a must.
In the same vein as starting pitching is relief pitching. At many points in the season, Atlanta’s bullpen was worn down. The lack of quality innings by starters led to an overuse of the pen. Braves starters averaged just 5.5 innings per game started last season. For reference, the Cleveland Indians starting pitching gave them 5.8 I/GS. The Cubs, 6.1 I/GS. This leaves more innings to be eaten up by the bullpen’s, causing fatigue. Innings that would have been better used in situations that the Braves saw as winnable. The success of the pen relies on the longevity of the starters.
What About Hitting?
The second half of the season saw Atlanta’s offense surge. The Braves ranked in the top ten in eight offensive categories post all star break. Given those numbers, Atlanta only got better in the offensive category so far this off season. The addition of Rodriguez on November 24th, may be the most underrated acquisition by any team this off season.
Source: Braves, S. Rodriguez reach 2-year deal
Sent with @MLB At Bat https://t.co/iIK9S8sFsi— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) November 24, 2016
A versatile IF/OF, Rodriguez is coming off his best season at the plate. Sean is the type of player that is a game changer for a team like Atlanta. He allows the team to carry an extra reliever, due to his ability to play everywhere. Rodriguez also adds the awe inspiring element of power, a department Atlanta can’t get enough help in. This comes from the change he made in his swing this past season, allowing him to achieve a better launch angle. Rodriguez is expected to get his fair share of starts at second and third base.
To be in contention in September, Atlanta will need repeat performances at the plate from several key players. Kemp and Freddie Freeman need to reproduce close to the same power numbers they did last season. A healthy Ender Inciarte needs to play all season as he did post All-Star break. Dansby Swanson has got to build upon the foundation he laid for himself last season. As you can see, many things have to go right for this team to be considered “good”.
But it can happen. It isn’t out of the question to think this season’s upcoming Braves team will christen SunTrust with a winning season. Second year manager Brian Snitker has the coaches around him to lead this team in the right direction. Copolella and company feel this team is improved as is, given their lack of participation in the winter meetings. This team is confident it can win, building off of where it left off last season.
Will the Bravos be good this season? There’s definitely reason to think so. However, only the baseball gods know for sure. #ChopOn.
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