Best Fantasy Football ADP Values by Team

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From Last Word On Pro Football, by Mike Randle

With seasonal league drafts in full swing, fantasy football owners are scouring late round ADP players trying to find the hidden values. The key to an effective fantasy draft is identifying which players carry that huge upside ceiling that could pay off in a fantasy championship.

Let’s take a close look at the best fantasy values on each team per Average Draft Position (ADP) on MyFantasyLeague.

(All statistics from PlayerProfiler).

Best Fantasy Football ADP Values By Team

Arizona Cardinals: JJ Nelson (WR)

In the Cardinals pass-heavy offense, Nelson provides fantastic value at his 182.4 ADP (WR 69). Teammate Larry Fitzgerald is 34 years old and works primarily on the short to intermediate routes. John Brown has great speed (4.34 40-yard dash) but carries a litany of injury concerns. Quarterback Carson Palmer ranked fourth and ninth the last two seasons in deep ball attempts, which perfectly suits Nelson’s abilities. He enters his critical third NFL season having caught a touchdown pass in four consecutive games last season.

Atlanta Falcons:  Austin Hooper (TE)

If you are looking for a Kyle Rudolph-like meteoric tight end riser, it’s Austin Hooper. Despite limited opportunities in 2016, Hooper ranked fourth last season among all tight ends with 10.0 yards per target. Standing 6’4″ and weighing 254 pounds with a 33 3/4″ arm length, Hooper will be a critical red zone weapon as defenses focus on Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman. With former Falcons tight end Jacob Tamme no longer in Atlanta, Hooper will see the largest increase in targets of any starting NFL tight end. He is a top 12 fantasy tight end with a current ADP of 132.6.

Baltimore Ravens: Danny Woodhead (RB)

With a lot of fantasy uncertainty in Baltimore, the best fantasy value is running back Danny Woodhead. He has missed almost two full seasons due to a fractured ankle (2014) and ACL tear (2016). While those injuries have hurt his ADP (64.7), it also means his “mileage” is less than most 32-year-old running backs. In PPR formats, Woodhead is a clear top 12 running back, averaging 79 receptions over his last two full seasons. His competition for backfield touches consists only of Terrance West and Javorius Allen. Woodhead will see work on all three downs, in the two-minute drill, and in the red zone. He is a top 12 PPR running back lock that is currently available in round six of seasonal drafts.

Buffalo Bills:  Tyrod Taylor (QB)

The trade of Sammy Watkins to the Rams has a limited effect on Tyrod Taylor‘s fantasy value. Over the past two seasons, Taylor has still been very productive on a per game basis when Watkins was not in the lineup (RotoViz).

With Watkins Without Watkins
Games 19 10
Fantasy Points 22.5 21.3
Attempts 27.1 30.3
Completions 17.1 18.7
Yards 217.3 191
Touchdowns 1.47 0.9
Interceptions 0.42 0.4

 

Taylor ranked seventh with 19.7 fantasy points per game in 2015, and 11th with 18.3 fantasy points per game last season. He is still being drafted outside the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks with a current ADP of 127.6 at QB17. Taylor was first among all quarterbacks with 580 rushing yards and still has a solid receiving corps of the newly-acquired Jordan Matthews, Anquan Boldin, Andre Holmes, rookie Zay Jones, and tight end Charles Clay.

Carolina Panthers:  Devin Funchess (WR)

If the Panthers follow recent history, 2017 should be a great year. Carolina has alternated winning and losing seasons each year since 2012. If the Panthers are going to rebound, quarterback Cam Newton will have to produce at a high level. Assuming that occurs, third-year wide receiver Devin Funchess will have a breakout season. The 6’4″ 232-pound Michigan product has already earned the starting spot alongside teammate Kelvin Benjamin. With the Panthers focused on keeping Cam Newton healthy, look for an increase in pass attempts to trigger a dramatic increase in Funchess’ 58 targets from last season. His 194.7 ADP makes Funchess virtually free in all seasonal drafts, which equates to the best Panthers’ fantasy value by a wide margin.

Chicago Bears:  Cameron Meredith (WR)

The only top team wide receivers getting drafted later than Cameron Meredith are Cleveland’s Kenny Britt and whoever is the Jets top receiver. That means Meredith is substantially undervalued given his breakout performance of 2016. He posted five top 10 PPR wide receiver weeks, highlighted by his nine receptions, 130 yards, and one touchdown at Indianapolis in week five. The quarterback turned receiver is firmly entrenched as the Bears top receiving option, and his 10.33 (95th percentile) catch radius makes him the perfect red zone threat. Meredith is currently being drafted as the WR39 with an 83.3 ADP.

Cincinnati Bengals:  Giovani Bernard (RB)

The arrival of rookie Joe Mixon has made Giovani Bernard the best fantasy football value on the Bengals. Bernard suffered a torn ACL at the end of last season, but has completed an incredibly quick rehab.

Bernard is one of the best receiving running backs in the league. Playing a full season in 2015, Bernard was top 10 among running backs in receptions (49) and receiving yards (472). Neither Mixon nor plodding veteran Jeremy Hill pose a threat to Bernard’s workload, as his receiving skill set is unmatched. Bernard will line up at a variety of spots on passing downs, and will remain a huge part of the Bengals offense regardless of game script.

Cleveland Browns:  DeShone Kizer (QB)

The value on running back Duke Johnson (ADP 101.8) is good, but the value on quarterback DeShone Kizer (ADP 221.1) is better. The rookie quarterback will face minimal resistance from fellow quarterbacks Brock Osweiler and Cody Kessler during his quick ascension to the starting job. Kizer showed off a strong arm and instinctual scrambling ability in the Browns opening preseason game.

While skeptics will argue it was against inferior competition, a second round draft capital investment will tilt any close battle in Kizer’s way. With a creative offensive coach in Hue Jackson, Kizer is a definite target in two quarterback leagues and a strong bye-week replacement option in seasonal formats.

Dallas Cowboys:  Cole Beasley (WR)

The sixth year Cowboys slot receiver has improved his reception and receiving yard totals each of the last three seasons. Beasley had 75 receptions in 2016 while battling injuries over the last five games. With the news of Ezekiel Elliott‘s suspension, Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott will be asked to produce more in the passing game which means more targets for Beasley. It is not difficult to envision the 5’8″ 176-pound receiver flirting with 90 receptions in 2017. Finding that production at Beasley’s current 156.3 ADP is a gift that needs to exploited by fantasy drafters.

Denver Broncos:  De’Angelo Henderson (RB)

The best fantasy value in Denver belongs to a player who currently doesn’t have an ADP. Coastal Carolina rookie running back De’Angelo Henderson is a big lottery ticket that with the right breaks will make an immediate fantasy impact this season. The 5’7″ 208-pound dynamo has already caught the eye of everyone at Broncos camp, and had a great first preseason game.

The hold on the lead running back spot is tenuous at best for C.J. Anderson. Keep an eye on De’Angelo Henderson as a fantasy difference maker in the second half of the season.

Detroit Lions: Golden Tate (WR)

Is it possible to be undervalued with an ADP below 50?  Golden Tate illustrates that it can happen. Over the last three seasons, he is in pretty rarefied PPR air.

After a slow start to 2016, Tate transformed into one of the best receivers in the league. Projecting his stats after week five to a full season, Tate would have totaled 278 PPR fantasy points, ranking as the overall WR5. As the top receiver in a pass-first Detroit offense, Tate will return strong value at his current WR22 ranking.

Green Bay Packers: Martellus Bennett (TE)

The starting tight end in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense, who never misses a game, and already has a 90-reception season on his resume is currently the TE10. Bennett is being drafted behind the Chargers’ Hunter Henry, who splits time with Antonio Gates. His 90-catch season was even on a poor Bears team with Jay Cutler as his quarterback. Always a fast starter, Bennett gives Aaron Rodgers the best all-around tight end he has worked with in his career. Bennett is currently getting drafted in round nine of seasonal formats.

Houston Texans:  D’Onta Foreman (RB)

When third-round draft pick D’Onta Foreman was arrested in mid-July on weapons and drug possession charges, it appeared the Texans starting running back job was secured by Lamar Miller. However, since that time, the 6’0″ 233-pound University of Texas product has continued to impress throughout the summer months. Foreman looked great in his preseason debut against Carolina, flashing speed and power.

Miller’s lackluster 2016 season makes Foreman’s 183.5 ADP a potential lottery ticket value. It is clear Foreman (ADP 182.7) will be heavily involved in a Texans offense desperate for playmakers.

Indianapolis Colts:  Robert Turbin (RB)

Isaiah Crowell, Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley, and Lamar Miller all had fewer touchdowns than Robert Turbin last season. The 5’10” 222-pound bruiser with 4.50 40-yard dash speed is ready to inherit the perfect fantasy situation should anything happen to starter Frank Gore. Despite only a 31.9 percent snap share, Turbin managed eight touchdowns and a sneaky 26 receptions. He is also elusive, possessing a 34.2 percent juke rate, which ranked fourth among all running backs. Turbin is not even drafted in most formats, currently with an obscene 207.5 ADP.

Jacksonville Jaguars:  Marqise Lee (WR)

Under new leadership, the Jaguars offensive plan will clearly center around limiting the mistakes of quarterback Blake Bortles. This means an increase in short to intermediate route passes, which makes wide receiver Marqise Lee a great ADP value. The fourth-year receiver from USC caught 63 passes last year, and produced five WR2 or better PPR weeks. Lee brings a 75th percentile or better burst score, agility score, and catch radius that will dominate the underneath route tree. His 161.9 ADP provides an opportunity to draft a PPR WR3 in almost the last round of seasonal drafts.

Kansas City Chiefs: Chris Conley (WR)

We’ve seen the Tyreek Hill narrative before in the form of Cordarrelle Paterson. He is a “gadget” player that will not produce at a WR1 level for a full season. Therefore, the Kansas City wide receiver with the best value is third-year Georgia product Chris Conley. His 4.35 40-yard dash time and 130.9 (97th percentile) SPARQ-x score will help him flourish with more opportunities. The Chiefs offense is conservative by nature, so selecting a high draft value player like Hill (ADP 44.1) is simply too risky. Conley’s ADP of 207.1 as the WR79 is much safer, and will prove better value.

Los Angeles Chargers:  Philip Rivers (QB)

Philip Rivers has been a QB1 in fantasy football for each of the past four seasons. However, when paired with offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, he’s been even better, finishing as a top six fantasy quarterback in both 2013 and 2016. Despite this, he is still only being drafted as QB15 with an ADP of 120.1. Rivers has finished four consecutive years as a QB1 and is still available in round ten of most seasonal drafts. Waiting to select a quarterback is always the optimal fantasy draft strategy, and Philip Rivers represents one of the best values in all of fantasy football.

Los Angeles Rams: Robert Woods (WR)

The acquisition of Sammy Watkins is great for Robert Woods, who is much better suited for a WR2/slot position than the primary receiving option. It’s difficult to project any Rams offensive player for consistent seasonal production, but with multiple negative game scripts, Woods should more than exceed his 150.1 ADP at WR58. Why reach for high draft capital Rams players like Todd Gurley and Watkins, when you can see a much better return on investment from Woods?

Miami Dolphins:  Jay Cutler (QB)

The Dolphins new quarterback enters the best situation of his entire career. Jay Cutler will be reunited with head coach Adam Gase, under whom Cutler produced a career-best quarterback rating of 92.3 in 2015. The Dolphins have a strong running game led by Jay Ajayi, and a strong veteran receiving corps of Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, and Kenny Stills. The early draft results show no respect for Cutler, who is listed as QB28 behind Alex Smith, Brian Hoyer, and rookie Deshaun Watson. The veteran quarterback certainly has a few QB1 weeks in his future for the 2017 fantasy season.

Minnesota Vikings:  Adam Thielen (WR)

This one feels like stealing. At a 107.3 ADP, fantasy drafters are forgetting Adam Thielen‘s 2016 season that produced three WR2 or better weeks, and the overall best week 16 fantasy wide receiver performance (12 catches, 202 yards, two touchdowns). Thielen totaled 69 receptions and 967 yards last season. With Michael Floyd suspended for the first four games of the season, and the accurate Sam Bradford as his quarterback, Thielen will provide savvy fantasy drafters WR3 or better value.

New England Patriots: Julian Edelman (WR)

Most people don’t realize Julian Edelman had 98 receptions and over 1,100 receiving yards last season, despite playing four games without quarterback Tom Brady. The diminutive reception machine finished with an average of 14.4 PPR points per game, ranking 16th among all fantasy wide receivers. Besides a foot fracture in 2015, Edelman has been remarkably consistent, producing 105, 92, and 98 receptions the other three seasons. Edelman is a 90-plus reception wide receiver currently going in round five with a 54.7 ADP.

New Orleans Saints: Coby Fleener (TE)

Coby Fleener is an excellent tight end target for those members of the wait on a tight end draft club. Despite a disappointing 2016 season, the 28-year old super athletic Fleener still ranked fifth among tight ends with 10 red zone targets. Fleener was particularly effective in the slot, where he averaged the sixth most yards per reception (16.0). He is in the ideal New Orleans fantasy offense, and will get a production boost from the Brandin Cooks departure. Fleener has a current ADP of 131.9 as TE14.

New York Giants: Shane Vereen (RB)

Paul Perkins is not a lead NFL running back, meaning there will be fantasy opportunities available in the Giants backfield. Shane Vereen is the most versatile and accomplished running back on the New York roster. In 2015, he finished top five among running backs with 59 receptions, despite having only a 38.6 percent snap share. Vereen can line up anywhere on offense, and will be used on all three downs and in the red zone. Vereen is the current RB63 at an ADP of 187.6. Regardless of play calling and game flow, Shane Vereen is an RB2 PPR lock.

New York Jets: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE)

Where does one find the best fantasy value on a team that will face negative game scripts throughout the season? The answer is the safest receiving option, which for the Jets is Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Only 24 years old, the former Buccaneers tight end has battled alcohol abuse but is now in the best shape of his career.

The 6’6″ 262-pound target will be short route safety with the athleticism to make big plays for the Jets offense. The wide receiving corps took a big hit when top receiver Quincy Enunwa was ruled out for the season with a neck injury. This leaves Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and his 201.5 ADP, as the best fantasy value on the Jets.

Oakland Raiders:  DeAndre Washington (RB)

While Marshawn Lynch is the headliner in the Raiders backfield, he is also coming out of retirement with a violent running style that is very susceptible to injury. Reports out of Oakland indicate the coaching staff wants to limit Lynch’s workload during the season. This will open up an opportunity for the dynamic DeAndre Washington, who is a home run threat any time he touches the ball. Washington’s 8.1 percent breakaway run rate translates to a run of 15 yards or more roughly once every twelve carries. He has 4.49 speed and a compact 5’8″ 204-pound frame. Washington is getting drafted as the RB58, which would be an even better value if Lynch misses time due to injury.

Philadelphia Eagles:  Darren Sproles (RB)

The best fantasy value on the Philadelphia Eagles is perfectly summarized by John Paulson of 4for4football:

It’s really that simple. Sproles is involved so much in the passing game that his RB floor is very high. At his current ADP of 137.3 as RB45, he could be the best value in the entire draft. The only player ahead of him on the depth chart is LeGarrette Blount, who possesses the completely opposite skill set. Blount won’t affect Sproles’ touches. Sproles is also game script resistant and will be deployed in the backfield and the slot. His ADP is fantasy football blasphemy.

Pittsburgh Steelers:  Ben Roethlisberger (QB)

Very few choices in Pittsburgh, as most players are being drafted close to their actual value. Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are fantastic players with appropriate first-round draft capital. The tight end situation is crowded, and there are many questions surrounding whether receiver Martavis Bryant can justify his 48.1 ADP. Therefore, the choice here is quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who is barely a QB1 at his current 111.8 ADP. Very few signal callers have the massive fantasy upside of Roethlisberger, who produced seven games of three plus touchdown passes last season. His ceiling is much higher than many quarterbacks currently drafted before him such as Derek Carr, Cam Newton, and Kirk Cousins. When Roethlisberger is on, he is as productive as any fantasy quarterback in the league.

San Francisco 49ers:  Pierre Garcon (WR)

The top receiver in Kyle Shanahan’s offense needs to be drafted before the WR35 spot, especially when it’s Pierre Garcon who had a career-best 113 receptions with Shanahan as Washington’s offensive coordinator in 2013. Garcon still has the speed and sure hands (zero drops in 2016) to support a WR2 floor or better. Add in quarterback Brian Hoyer‘s history of locking onto his lead wide receiver, and it’s “wheels up” for Garcon as a strong WR2 fantasy option currently available in round six.

Seattle Seahawks:  Paul Richardson (WR)

Paul Richardson flashed his potential in last year’s playoff game against Detroit.

 

The super athletic receiver with blazing 4.40 speed has been waiting for a chance to garner a higher target share. Richardson has already passed Jermaine Kearse on the depth chart and looks to be a starting wide receiver for Seattle in week one. Tethered to a dynamic All-Pro quarterback in Russell Wilson, Richardson will far surpass his bargain-basement WR83 ADP. Fantasy drafters can acquire the talented starting wide receiver for the Seahawks in the very last round of seasonal league drafts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Jacquizz Rodgers (RB)

With Doug Martin suspended for the first three games of the season, Jacquizz Rodgers is the clear week one starter. Rodgers produced three consecutive RB16 or better PPR weeks as the starter last season. He is a good pass catcher who also was top 15 among fantasy running backs with a 29.6 percent juke rate. It is important to start the fantasy season strong, providing a solid foundation upon which to make waiver and trade moves. Rodgers is one of the only starting running backs available after round 12. At RB48 with an ADP of 141.8, Jacquizz Rodgers is the best fantasy value in Tampa Bay.

Tennessee Titans: Rishard Matthews (WR)

The best wide receiver in Tennessee has only the third best ADP. Both rookie Corey Davis (97.2) and free agent acquisition Eric Decker (92.8) have a significantly better ADP than Matthews (130.3). He started only ten games for Tennessee last season, yet finished as the 21st fantasy wide receiver in PPR formats and the 14th best wideout in standard scoring leagues. Matthews developed a fantastic rapport with quarterback Marcus Mariota, and ranked seventh among wide receivers with 12 red zone targets. He has experience in the system that Davis doesn’t, and is three years younger than Decker. Rishard Matthews will be the best Titans fantasy wide receiver this season.

Washington Redskins: Rob Kelley (RB)

Rob Kelley is only two draft spots ahead of Jacquizz Rodgers, yet projects to be the full-year starter in Washington. The rumor that rookie Samaje Perine would challenge and eventually unseat “Fat Rob” on the Redskins depth chart is dying quickly.

As the starting running back in Jay Gruden’s offense, Kelley will have ample scoring opportunities. After ascending to the starting role in week eight, Kelley scored seven touchdowns and produced the third best overall fantasy running back performance (137 yards, three touchdowns) in week 11 against Green Bay. A goal line starting running back getting drafted after James White (114.7), Kareem Hunt (97.1), and even Perine (95.5) himself is the very definition of great fantasy value.

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