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The Astros Rough Start Could Be a Blessing in Disguise

It’s no secret that the Houston Astros have gotten off to a rough start this year. The Astros currently sit 12 games below .500 and in last place in the American League West. Although the season is less than a month old, the Astros have dug themselves a hole that not many teams in history have come out of. While nobody likes losing, the disastrous start, and possibly a bad season, might be a blessing in disguise for the AL powerhouse.

The Astros have excelled over the past several years thanks to contributions from a robust minor league player development system. The organization has made huge splashes when needed, but would not have been in the position to do so if not for cheap, young talent leading the way. Unfortunately, that pipeline has run pretty dry, and the team is paying for it. Houston only had a couple of intriguing, high-ceiling prospects a year ago, and both were traded at the deadline for Justin Verlander. Although neither would have contributed much, if anything, to the team this season, the trade is a good representation of how Houston’s system became so barren.

While the Astros have enough time to get their act together, the odds of them making the playoffs are thin. And that could end up being a good thing for 2025 and beyond.

The Astros Must Take Advantage of a Rough Start

The Astros had a lot of roster holes to fill this offseason but chose to make just one big splash. Perhaps the organization got accustomed to filling holes with minimum wage internal talent stepping up. Or perhaps the team didn’t realize how thin the roster depth was.

Either way, the Astros rough start has highlighted the lack of organizational depth. It’s a problem that needs to be fixed. One upside to losing is the opportunity to sell at the deadline and bring in young talent. This hypothetical scenario only becomes more realistic the more the Astros struggle. Houston must be smart enough to take advantage of this opportunity and make shrewd deadline moves to help extend the team’s contention window.

The roster still has high-level talent under control through next year and a complete rebuild could be avoided. The front office must realize that the most efficient way to stay in contention for the rest of this decade is by moving franchise icons this summer. Losing sucks, but it will allow the Astros to make these necessary moves in late July.

Trade Veteran Pitchers at the Deadline

A bad Astros team can’t keep aging pitchers. Pitching is the hottest commodity at the deadline, and Houston needs to take advantage. Trading Verlander should be the first move to revive a barren system. Verlander is owed around $18 million from Houston this season. Plus, his deal includes a $35 million vesting option for 2025 if he pitches 140 innings in 2024. As the New York Mets showed, the quality of a return will depend on how much money Houston eats.

That said, teams typically figure out the financials when it’s for a player of Verlander’s caliber. So, there is a realistic avenue for the Astros to receive at least one top-100-level prospect for the aging legend.

The Baltimore Orioles represent an ideal fit as the new ownership group will likely want to make a big splash with their deep pockets and a plethora of elite young talent. The Orioles can afford Verlander from both a financial and player capital perspective. They are expected to pursue pitching upgrades this summer, and Verlander makes incredible sense for the legitimate World Series contender. Houston can upgrade any position in this hypothetical trade. Acquiring an outfielder could move Yordan Alvarez to first base when he’s not hitting in the DH slot.

Or, this outfielder could replace Kyle Tucker if he leaves via free agency after 2025. Baltimore can also offer a young infielder to replace Alex Bregman. Additionally, struggling reliever Ryan Pressly should fetch an intriguing return. He is owed less than $7 million after the deadline and will likely get a $2 million buyout of a mutual option for 2025. Despite his age and early struggles, Pressly has an extensive high-leverage pedigree that a contending team would love to have.

Acquiring young talent will benefit Houston more than keeping these pitchers will.

Trade Alex Bregman

Bregman will be a free agent after this year and appears unlikely to agree to an extension with the Astros. Rather than losing him for just a draft pick, Houston could acquire a package of young talent by trading him at the deadline. While the 30-year-old has struggled this year, he is expected to rebound. Even if his numbers don’t bounce back to vintage Bregman levels, he could attract a contending team due to his winning pedigree. A team like the first place Milwaukee Brewers could be in play. Milwaukee doesn’t spend money but has shown a willingness to be aggressive when they think they have a legitimate shot.

Acquiring Bregman would significantly deepen the lineup and upgrade third base while allowing the team to avoid a long-term commitment. In return, the Astros could acquire one of several talented young outfielders jammed on Milwaukee’s depth chart. Additionally, Houston could target some of the pitching prospects MLB Pipeline ranked in the top 5-15 slots of the Brewers’ system. Trading Bregman, a franchise icon, would represent a bold move. However, it’s likely a no-brainer due to his contract status. The Astros don’t appear serious about extending him. Losing in 2024 gives Houston a perfect excuse to deal with him for a package of young players that could help in 2025 and beyond.

Jose Altuve, Tucker, and Alvarez can anchor the 2025 lineup. Houston can contend thanks to solid supporting hitters like Yainer Diaz, Jake Meyers and Jeremy Peña. Flipping Bregman will give Houston a chance to strengthen the roster and take full advantage of this core for at least one more season.

There’s Plenty to Consider for the Astros

Houston possesses a solid core for 2025. Dealing Verlander, Pressly, and Bregman won’t impact that core too much, if at all. The Astros likely won’t recover from this rough start. Therefore, the goal for the rest of the season should be doing what it takes to support next year’s core as best as possible.

That means not entering the 2025 season with as many holes as the 2024 Opening Day roster had. An efficient way to accomplish that is by trading stars like Verlander, Pressly, and Bregman in July. Losing games and franchise icons hurt, but it might represent the best way to avoid a full blown rebuild.

Main Photo: © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

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