The Boston Red Sox have gotten the 2016 season off to a decent start. They’re 6-5, thanks largely to an explosive offense, and currently hold the second spot, behind the Baltimore Orioles, in the American League East. Travis Shaw was the right call at third base, Hanley Ramirez seems revitalized at first base, and the return of Christian Vazquez led to consecutive quality starts from Joe Kelly and Rick Porcello. All in all, things could be much worse right now.
However, there is no denying that the Red Sox have a few problems to address. The rotation behind David Price is unreliable at best, and the bullpen, outside of Craig Kimbrel, Junichi Tazawa, and Koji Uehara, inspires no confidence in fans and no fear in opposing hitters. Reinforcements are on the way, as Eduardo Rodriguez and Carson Smith are both nearing returns, but more help is needed.
The return of Rodriguez creates another problem: whose rotation spot does he take? Boston could roll with a six-man rotation, but that seems unlikely. Most observers would say the most obvious solution is to move knuckleballer Steven Wright to a relief role. He has prior experience coming out of the ‘pen, and doesn’t command the dollar figures that Porcello and Kelly do.
Yet the numbers suggest Wright would serve the team better as a starter. Last season, Wright got significantly better results as a member of the rotation (3.96 ERA) than he did as a reliever (4.43 ERA). That might have been a fluke, but some pitchers simply perform better when pitching on the predictable schedules they get as starters. And if two starts in 2016 can be taken as any kind of sample size, that looks to be the case for Steven Wright, who has continued his success as a starter from 2015 into the new season.
Through two starts, Wright has been the Red Sox best starter not named David Price. Across 12.2 innings, the 31-year-old has allowed just three earned runs and three walks, while striking out eleven. He may be 0-2, but he’s pitched well enough to be 2-0.
It would be foolish to remove him from the rotation simply because the knuckle ball is unpredictable. Tim Wakefield tossed an unpredictable knuckle ball for Boston for seventeen years, mostly as a starter, and fans loved him for it. Steven Wright is not the second coming of Tim Wakefield, but the organization should not be afraid of trusting a pitch that has won them so many games in the past.
So let’s assume Wright sticks as the fifth starter. Then who moves to the ‘pen? Someone has to. For years, analysts have suggested that Joe Kelly’s stuff would play better in relief situations than it does in a starting role. That may be worth testing, but what if Boston sent a different career starter to a late-inning role? What if the Red Sox converted Clay Buchholz into a reliever?
For ten years, people have raved about Buchholz’s raw stuff, and not without reason; the former first round pick can be as nasty as anybody in the game when he’s on. Yet ever since he was first called up in 2007, Buchholz has struggled with consistency and his health, both of which have prevented him from ever really putting it all together.
Sure, he’s made two All-Star games, but Buchholz has only pitched 170 innings or more three times in his career. He’s had seasons, like 2013, in which he’s looked like a Cy Young candidate, but those campaigns were derailed by injury. He’s finished a season, shortened or full, with an ERA under four just five times. Of the three full seasons he’s pitched, only one (2010) saw him finish with an ERA better than 4.56.
Buchholz’s 2016 is already trending in the wrong direction. He’s pitched nine innings across two starts, and has allowed ten runs on six walks eleven hits, including three home runs. He has undoubtedly been the worst member of Boston’s rotation in the early going. If any of the starters deserves to lose their rotation spot, it’s Buchholz.
The thing is, there’s little or no reason to believe Buchholz would perform any better as a reliever. There are no significant numbers with which to predict his likelihood of success. He’s pitched just four innings of relief in the bigs (three in 2007, and one in 2008) and allowed one run. That’s no use for predicting anything. But he would hardly be the first starter to resurrect his career as reliever, and remember, his problem has never been his stuff; he’s struggled with injuries and consistency as a starter.
Pitching in a relief role could potentially do a lot to mitigate both of those issues. As a reliever, he would pitch far fewer innings over the course of the season, which would make it less likely that his body would break down on him. And pitching mostly in the small doses that relievers take the mound for might keep him from falling out of the good grooves that he can get in. He’d also represent a quality long-relief option when the Sox need someone to go multiple innings. While it would be a hard decision to make, it could ultimately be the only way to salvage what’s left of Clay’s potential. And if the organization has no interest in doing that, why does he still have a roster spot at all?
Moving Buchholz to the bullpen would open a spot for Eduardo Rodriguez, and could do a lot to shore up a relief corps in need of help. It’s not the conventional move, but taking the less obvious path has paid dividends for Boston in the early going. And the Sox have, quietly, pushed a lot of the right buttons so far: Travis Shaw over Pablo Sandoval; Brock Holt over Rusney Castillo; Christian Vazquez over Blake Swihart; Hanley Ramirez to first base; Steven Wright in the rotation. They should make one more bold decision, and push one more button: send Clay Buchholz to the bullpen.
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