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Draft Class Quarterback Comparisons Prove Little

The NFL draft—the Super Bowl of the off-season—is a magical day where dreams come true and the landscape of the National Football League changes. No matter what happens, good or bad, each draft will be discussed for years to come. In 2000, it was Tom Brady. Was the 199th pick overall the greatest draft steal of all time? What would’ve happened had the Raiders selected wide receiver Calvin Johnson instead of quarterback JaMarcus Russell with the first overall pick of the 2007 draft? These are the questions that people love to ask. However, the most intriguing of the draft discussions revolve around draft class quarterback comparisons. Drafting a quarterback is surely one step toward a Superbowl for any team, but it’s just one step.

Ryan Leaf is widely regarded as one of the biggest draft busts of all time, but maybe that wouldn’t have been the case had he not been picked second behind a legend like Peyton Manning in 1998. Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers were all selected in the first round of the 2004 draft, and the jury is still way, way out on which of the trio is the best. Naturally, you can’t mention outstanding draft classes without including 1983, the year that saw the addition of Dan Marino, John Elway, and Jim Kelly. That class had three hall of famers!

The idea that a single draft pick determines a team’s fate doesn’t make any sense. Sure, you can compare the stats and the success of each player, but there are dozens of variables that go into the kind of success that any player has.

Most experts would argue that Andrew Luck is the future of the National Football League. If a mad scientist were to build a quarterback , it would probably look a lot like Andrew Luck. However, 2012 draft-mate, Russell Wilson, has enjoyed far more success.

While Luck has struggled mightily in the post-season, Wilson is off to the best start since Tom Brady in 2001. In three short seasons, he’s already won two NFC championships, and a Super Bowl. With success like that, you can’t possibly think that Andrew Luck is the better quarterback, can you? After all, teams aren’t put together to have good statistics, they’re put together to win games.

Actually, it isn’t that simple. See, Wilson was drafted in the third round by a Seahawks team with all the pieces in place. Looking at all the talent that Seattle has had over the last four years, it’s evident that while Wilson has come up huge in certain situations, he’s far from the only reason they’ve been successful. In 2014, the Seattle Seahawks were number one in both defense and rushing.  In fact, the Seahawks defense has been number one for two straight years, and during Wilson’s career the rushing offense has never been outside of the top five.

Luck on the other hand? He has had almost the exact opposite. As far as rushing support is concerned, he’s only ever had one runningback with a 100 yard game. Yup. Only one. And it came from Vick Ballard back in 2012. As for the defense, Indianapolis only finished inside the top ten once, and that was in Luck’s rookie season.

So the two teams are completely different. You could argue that Russell Wilson was just asked to manage the game, score enough points to help the defense, and avoid turnovers. And that’s why his stats haven’t been as phenomenal. You could also argue that Luck was given less, and so he had to do more. He had to throw more passes, and take more risks so that his team could be successful. And that’s why he has enjoyed more statistical success.

This year, the same argument could be made for Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr. On a much, much bigger scale, the same argument could be made for Cam Newton and Drew Brees. At the end of the day, despite what jersey sales say, despite what fantasy football says, and despite what the highlights show, football is a team game. It’s easy to blame one player specifically, especially the quarterbacks. Ultimately,everyone in the NFL has a different role; and they all need the help of teammates to find success. As it turns out, comparing apples and oranges is fruitless.

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