Only a couple of years ago, it looked as though Canada had a chance at two wins in Pool D at the Rugby World Cup 2015 in England. The top teams in the pool, France and Ireland, had taken turns finishing last at the Six Nations. Italy looked stagnant despite their ongoing efforts to break into the top tier of world rugby, and Romania continued to tread water.
Unfortunately, that was then and this is now. Ireland has bounced back in a big way, France has righted the ship and no longer look vulnerable, and while Italy and Romania haven’t obviously progressed, they are still formidable opponents.
It now appears that Canada will be in tough to stay competitive at RWC 2015, and while it’s a virtual certainty that they will be heading home after the pool stages, a third-place finish (and automatic qualification for RWC 2019) is still a reasonable goal.
With that in mind, let’s have a look at how Canada and their future Pool D opposition are making out during the current Northern tours.
▪ If there were any lingering doubts about which team is the current favourite to top Pool D, they were erased this weekend when Ireland convincingly downed South Africa 29-15 in Dublin. Continuing their pattern of inconsistency in 2014, the Springboks made critical errors around the park, while Ireland looked fully committed to their game plan, which enabled them to overcome lulls in the first and third quarters. Joe Schmidt continues to look a genius, and could have this Irish side peaking at just the right time.
Next up for Ireland: A relatively easy date with Georgia. Presumably this will be a bonus week in which Ireland field a second or third string side in an effort to get healthy for the Wallabies in a fortnight.
▪ France got their international season started off on the right foot in Marseille, dispatching Fiji 40-15 in a match that never looked particularly in doubt. The 2013-2014 campaign has so far been somewhat underwhelming for Les Bleus, so this victory was the least that could have been expected from them. In general, France seem to have been trending down in the past couple of years, but improved play and a blinding, hat-trick debut by 21-year old wing Teddy Thomas provides some optimism for the days ahead.
Next up for France: A clash with the Wallabies in a Test which likely features the two most unpredictable sides in international rugby these days.
▪ After a frustrating nine-test losing streak which extended back almost a calendar year, Italy finally got back into the win column with a 24-13 victory over Samoa in Ascoli Piceno. Besides snapping their overall losing streak, Italy would also have been relieved to put away a Samoan side which had defeated them twice in the last 18 months.
Next up for Italy: A test against Argentina which suddenly looks even more menacing than it already did. The Pumas were shredded by Scotland to the tune of 41 points, and will surely be looking for redemption through a return to what they do best: banging bodies and packing down hard at scrum time.
▪ After a disappointing summer test schedule, Canada chalked up their first victory of the year, a 17-13 neutral-site affair against Namibia played in Wales. Though Canada was clearly the more assertive team on offense, neither side showed particularly well, and at this point both appear destined for serious disappointment at RWC 2015. This match was Exhibit A for two international teams which would benefit from expanded test schedules.
Next up for Canada: A supremely tough contest against Samoa. A victory was always going to be a big ask for the Canucks, and matters won’t be made easier after top players John Moonlight and Sean Duke headed home to recuperate before representing Canada at the upcoming Dubai leg of the Sevens World Series.
▪ Forever on the hunt for more production from their backs, Romania were derailed by Team USA 27-17 in Bucharest. Coming off a predictably lopsided result against the All Blacks one week ago in Chicago, Team USA rebounded by making the most of their scoring opportunities, while Romania failed to build off the possession advantage presented by their forwards.
Next up for Romania: A very stern test against ever-improving Japan.
All told, the only real trend in Pool D after the weekend is that Ireland now look to be the team to beat. Obviously France will be the main competition, but they have much to prove over the next 10 months. Throw in an Italian side that is still struggling to move up on the international ladder, and the upcoming Six Nations will make for an intriguing yardstick. Barring a catastrophic performance by Italy in February or a stunning drop-off by the French, it would appear that Canada will be fighting it out with Romania for a single victory in the Pool stages.
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