Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Why Toronto FC Have Turned Around Under Paul Mariner

1-1-4. That is the record of the last place squad in Major League Soccer, Toronto FC, since Paul Mariner took over the position of head coach. The 1-1-4 record includes a 3-0 win over the Montreal Impact a 2-0 Loss to Sporting Kansas City and 4 draws, one each against Houston Dynamo, New England Revolution, New York Red Bulls and FC Dallas. While superficially a record in which the team in question has won 7 out of a possible 18 points doesn’t seem at all impressive, Toronto’s recent play represents a step in the right direction since Dutchmen Aron Winter left his post as manager.

Winter, a former Dutch international, was supposed to be the catalyst for change in Toronto, a club that has known almost exclusively disappointment and poor results since joining MLS in 2007. With Winter came a promise that Toronto would improve and finally make it to the plateau that has so far alluded them; qualification for the MLS playoffs. Winter’s plan was to implement a “total football” or “tiki-taka” style of play similar to that of the Johan Cruyff era Netherlands’ squads. This strategy entailed Toronto playing a 4-3-3 formation for almost every game under Winter.

At times this formation and style, although it never really panned out as Winter would have liked, was highly effective. After Winter was allowed to make some additions during the summer transfer window, including Dutch striker Danny Koevermans and former German international Torsten Frings, the team ended the season on a 3-2-6 run. Again while this record is not incredibly impressive to the naked eye if Toronto had played in this form the entire season it would have seen them finish 10th place, 6 higher then their 16th place finish and qualify for the MLS playoffs in the 10th and final spot.

However, that hope quickly evaporated when Toronto, after a huge victory in the CONCACAF Champions League quarter-finals over the heavily favored LA Galaxy, started the MLS season 0-9-0. This record, a string of nine straight losses, was unprecedented in MLS history. During this time Winter’s 4-3-3 formation and enduring strategy were supremely exposed. The 4-3-3 attacking and possession based formation simply wasn’t practical with the quality of players on the Toronto roster.

Several different problems quickly presented themselves with this formation in 2012 that weren’t existent at the end of the 2011 season. To begin with it became quickly apparent that Toronto didn’t have three strikers/wingers with enough ability to warrant being started simultaneously. While Ryan Johnson has been solid this season Danny Koevermans, the hero of the 2011 season, began the season on a poor run of form. Meanwhile Joao Plata demonstrated little ability to evolve after MLS defenders discovered his playing style. Furthermore, both Nick Soolsma and Regge Lambe, Toronto’s other two options in the third striker role, are both decent players but haven’t shown much scoring ability at the MLS level.

With three players playing upfront Toronto didn’t have the support defensively that they required. In modern football solid defense can be the great equalizer. As demonstrated in the Champions League Semi-Finals by Chelsea if your team doesn’t have the same extravagance of players as the opposition playing 10 men behind the ball can achieve results that never seemed conceivable. Toronto doesn’t necessarily have the quality of other MLS teams but they decided in playing 4-3-3 to play with 7 men behind the ball. Equally damaging was the fact that Toronto has little pace through the midfield and on the backline with the exception of Ashtone Morgan, who often moves forward. This allowed teams to catch Toronto consistently on the counter attack.

The fundamental tactical change that Paul Mariner has made to change all of this? Moving one of the problematic three forwards back into the midfield and playing a simplistic, yet effective, 4-4-2 formation. With the addition of a midfielder Toronto has played Torsten Frings, Julian De Guzman, Eric Avila and Terry Dunfield all at once. This has not only allowed Toronto a better defensive formation but it has permitted players like Eric Avila and Ashtone Morgan the opportunity to get forward and create chances without causing as much distress when possession is conceded. With the service that these players have been providing and the newfound space upfront Danny Koevermans has become the most dangerous Striker in the league scoring in each of his last 5 games including a brace in a 3-3 draw against Houston Dynamo. Koevermans now sits tied for 3rd in scoring and in him Toronto have found the goals that they have been lacking all season.

While the MLS playoffs are now out of the question, Toronto would need 39 more points (a record of roughly 10-5-3) to get close to playoff contention, there may still be cause for hope around BMO Field in Toronto. The squad is in tough against the team that defeated them in the CONCACAF Champions League semi-finals earlier this season Santos Laguna but stranger things have happened then Toronto advancing to the tournament’s knockout stages for a second straight year. Finally, this stretch and new system may be pivotal for some of Toronto’s youth, especially Morgan, Avila and 19 year old central defender Doniel Henry.

It may not be the season that Red fans have been craving since the club’s inception in 2007 but this season could still be a huge stepping stone for Canada’s first Major League Soccer club. Especially if they can use the summer transfer window to shore up a defensive system that has been poor since the very beginning.

Early Look: Top 10 NHL Draft Prospects for 2013

Its early and there is still a full year of hockey to be played before the 2013 NHL draft, but today I take an early look at the prospects expected to go at the top of that draft.

1) Nathan MacKinnon, Halifax Mooseheads, QMJHL, Centre

We’ve been hearing about MacKinnon for over 2 years now.  The talented playmaker has even drawn comparisons to Sidney Crosby based on his Nova Scotia roots.  While I don’t think MacKinnon is quite in that class of generational player, he may be the next best thing.  Blessed with extremely good skating skills, a fantastic wrist shot and release, and exceptional vision and passing ability he has all the skills necessary to be an offensive force in the NHL.  MacKinnon is also willing to battle along the boards and is not afraid to get his nose dirty to make a play.

2) Seth Jones, USNTD, USHL, Defence

Jones is the son of former NBA player Popeye Jones.  He is an outstanding skater who glides all over the ice.  This skating ability allows him to join the rush or to play shut down defence.  Already 6’4″ at the age of 17, and with his pedigree, he may end up a monster on the back end.  Offensively talented he is cool and calm with the puck on his stick and makes smart passes leading to a strong breakout.  His passing and huge shot also make him a natural in the offensive zone and on the PP.  Jones will be highly sought after, and we may have ourselves a very close race at 1-2 this year.   Jones will play next season for the Portland Winterhawks in the WHL.

3) Sean Monahan, Ottawa 67s, OHL, Centre

A 1994 birthday, Monahan already has 2 full seasons in the OHL under his belt, Monahan spent the year centring the first line for the Ottawa 67s.  Already 6’2″, Monahan is developing into a power forward at the centre position.  He uses his strong skating ability, powerful stride and good balance to drive the net in the offensive zone.   Monahan’s shot and release are already at pro level, and he can use them to beat goalies with regularity.  Monahan is also an excellent playmaker and his vision and passing skills helped linemate Tyler Toffoli lead the OHL in goals.

4) Hunter Shinkaruk, Medicine Hat Tigers, WHL, Left Wing

Shinkaruk was a member of Canada’s 2011 Ivan Hlinka team which won the gold medal.  The talented winger has an outstanding shot and release leading to him scoring 49 goals this season.  He is a shifty player who is always moving his feet and looking for open space to receive a pass and let his shot go.   When carrying the puck, he protects it well and uses good vision and crisp passing skills to set up teammates with scoring opportunities.

5) Alexsander Barkov, Tappara, SM-Liiga, Centre/Left Wing

As a 16 year old Barkov played in the 2012 World Juniors for Team Finland and became the youngest player ever to score a goal in the tournament.   He followed that up with an impressive performance for Team Finland at the U18s.  Already 6’2″ and 205 lbs, while still just 16 Barkov is a force on the boards.  He creates offence by winning battles and then using his passing skills to find open teammates.  He has excellent vision and hockey sense and almost always makes the smart play.  He does need some work on his skating as he just does not have the speed and quickness of the other top 5 prospects.  With a September 1995 birthday, Barkov is one of the younger players in this draft class, and that may mean there is room for him to move up this list.

6) Elias Lindholm, Brynas, Elitserien, Centre

Lindholm was very impressive in helping Sweden win a silver medal at the 2012 U18s.  Lindholm is an excellent skater who is more of a playmaker than a goal scorer.  He has great stickhandling ability and uses it to deke past defenders and protect the puck.  With his excellent vision and ability to feather a crisp pass through a maze of sticks and skates he should be able to rack up assists and create offence.  He is also a gritty forward willing to start the forecheck, and to battle down low and play a puck possession game on the cycle.

7) Curtis Lazar, Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL, Centre

Lazar was a huge part of the Oil Kings winning the WHL title and advancing to the Memorial Cup.  Given time on a line with Henrik Samuellson, Lazar scored 19 points in 20 playoff games.  Lazar has great quickness and outstanding acceleration.  He is able to use his quick and powerful stride to go wide on defence, and if he manages to get a step on them he puts it into another gear and drives the net hard.  His powerful skating and excellent balance make him difficult to handle down low and he cycles the puck very well.  He plays a rugged game and is willing to hit on the forecheck or battle along the boards.  Lazar also possesses an excellent shot and pro-level release which he used to score 8 goals in the WHL playoffs.

8) Ryan Pulock, Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL, Defence

Pulock was selected as a forward in the 2009 WHL Draft, but has made the transition to defence.  As expected the offensive skills in his game are evident, as he scored 19 goals and 60 points in 71 games this season.  He has an absolute rocket of a slapshot and is a feared shooter on the Powerplay.  A natural PP Quarterback, Pulock makes smart crisp passes and sees the ice extremely well.  While not as fast as some of the other players in the top 10, Pulock is still an above average skater with good mobility on the blue line.

9) Max Domi, London Knights, OHL, Centre

Max is the son of former NHL tough guy Tie Domi, but you wouldn’t know it watching the young Domi on the ice.  Domi is an elite skater who uses his shiftiness and changes of pace to confuse and beat defenders.  He has excellent hockey sense and is able to find openings in the offensive zone to unleash a quick and accurate wrist shot.  He is extremely dangerous with the puck on his stick as he can beat defenders one on one or use his excellent vision and passing ability to create an opening for his teammates.  He will need to work on improving his defensive game this season, but he has the drive to succeed and the coach, Dale Hunter, who can help him make that happen.

10) J.T. Compher, USNTDP – U17, USHL, Centre

The leading scorer for the USNTDP U17 squad, Compher is a talented agitator who plays an irritating game.  Always yapping and always in an opponents face after the whistle, Compher has the ability to get opponents off their game and draw penalties.  He also has the skills to back up his chirping as he has the speed, vision, and passing ability to be an extremely effective playmaker.  He also has a very good shot and release, and knows how to put the puck in the back of the net.

 

Feel free to leave your comments below and follow me on twitter @LastwordBKerr.

Athletes Going Broke and Going to Jail

Today I stumbled across the headline, “Ex Raider Facing Multiple Murder Charges”.  Headlines like these involving former athletes have become so commonplace that I barely noticed, which for me is sad.

Anthony Wayne Smith, a former Los Angeles Raider who played six seasons in the NFL, is potentially facing the death penalty after being accused of three murders.  Reading this made me think the same thing I feel every time I read about another athlete going to jail, going bankrupt or involved in some criminal activity – I don’t understand how these athletes who earn millions of dollars get mixed up in all this.  Why can’t they play the sport they love, collect their massive cheques and then retire young and happy with all of the freedoms and luxuries in the world?  It seems so easy, though of course I’m not naive enough to think it will always happen so perfectly.

Some of the players that have faced multiple years in prison are:  Michael Vick, Plaxico Burress, Mercury Morris, O.J Simpson, Mike Tyson, Lenny Dykstra.  Another intriguing list includes athletes who have gone bankrupt: Charles Barkley, Evander Holyfield, John Daly, Mark Brunell, Latrell Sprewell, Lawrence Taylor, and again, Mike Tyson.

These are just a few names amongst the many that have had particularly public trials and tribulations.  I think you can see my point, that the amount of money on makes does not re-define them.  That is to say, just because someone becomes wealthy does not mean they can necessarily break bad habits, or stay away from negative influences.

Many of  these crimes and bankruptcies were caused by drugs, gambling, and credit “issues”.  So I thought to myself “Can this be stopped?”

Many players enter their respective sports with chequered pasts.  If we can agree that making a ridiculous amount of money would not change them, then how can these players be helped?  Should the player’s team provide some services?  Should the leagues impose stricter penalties for poor behaviour, or would they not be taken seriously?

I’m not sure what is currently being done for athletes to help them transition in their lives after sports, but whatever it is, I’m sure it’s not enough.

…and that is the Last Word.

Fort Erie Race Track Leaders

Two months into the Fort Erie Race Track meet, there are a couple of new faces on top of the leader boards in both the jockey and trainer standings.

On top of the jockey standings is a familiar name to racing in Ontario, Terry Husbands. After a big weekend last weekend, Terry passed Kirk Johnson to take a slim lead. Looks like the two are both on track (pardon the pun) for very successful years and best of luck to both along with the rest of the colony.

Trainer Gary Chudobiak is crushing them at the Fort right now as he has 13 wins so far this year. He is one of three relatively new young trainers that are on top in the trainers standing, with Shawn Rideout and Bi Raghunath tied for second with eight wins.

There are currently four horses that have three wins each at Fort Erie after two months. Two of them, Jeffrey Armin and Grace by Moonlight, are unbeaten. It’s very hard for a horse to win three in a row, and very few ever win four in a row, so I will be looking to bet against them in their next starts. The other horses with three wins are Big Brother Joe and La Gray Zuliana.

The last categories I want to talk about are the owners. These are the people putting their money up to pay for the horses and pay the trainers, who then have the money to pay for help.  Basically these owners are the ones who make the world of horse racing go round. Without these owners gambling their money on the possibility of their horse winning to pay the bills, there would be no horse racing, so I think it only appropriate to give a thank-you.

Leading owners at the meet so far are Dale Powell (trainer Chudobiak), CS Dowson Farms (Rideout), Jeanne Ryan (Dan Wills) and E&N Raghunath (Raghunath).

With the meet now a third of the way through, the leader boards are starting to take shape. We will keep a close eye on the standings to see if these people continue their winning ways. Is it time to jump on the Terry Husbands’ bandwagon and bet everything he rides? Will Chudobiak and Powell continue their impressive meet? These questions are what make this game of horse racing my favorite in the world.

….and that is the last word.

How the CFL West…… Won!

I was very excited last week to see the 2012 CFL season finally kick off.  All four matches featured a team from the east facing a western foe.  And the west ran the gammit and took them all, in very convincing fashion, apart from one game.

The Edmonton Eskimos squeaked by the Toronto Argonauts 19-15.  But no one expected the Saskatchewan Rough Riders to drill the Tiger Cats 43-16 right in Hamilton, or the Alouettes to get run over by the Calgary Stampeders 38-10 in Montreal.  Finally the BC Lions ate the Winnipeg Blue Bombers 33-16 in the 2011 Grey Cup rematch.

Was this the preview for the 2012 CFL season?  Is the West going to dominate the East like this all season long?  Personally I don’t think so.  The Alouettes got things going against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers tonight, and the Tiger Cats showed some bright spots proving they are able to move the football effectively, despite their three-point loss to the Lions in BC.  As much as I hate both the Argos and Bombers, it is still too early in the season to completely write them off either.

So I think this Western dominance will be short-lived and will not last the entire season.  What do you think?

…and that is the Last Word.

Go West, Go Northwest; The Power Brokers of NHL Free Agency

In the last week we have seen one division totally reshaped by NHL free agency, and that is the Northwest.  All 5 teams have thrown their hats into the ring, and seven of the most highly sought after free agents have signed with teams within the division.  The Northwest Division has been the Vancouver Canucks domain, as the team has finished first in the division for 3 consecutive seasons.  They have also won the President’s trophy the last two seasons, with no other Northwest club even finishing in the playoffs in either of those years.  After watching the Canucks dominate the division, will the latest round of  moves shift the balance of power in the division?

 

Calgary Flames: The Flames made a big time splash even before free agency officially began, trading with Washington to acquire the negotiating rights for Dennis Wideman.  The Flames then quickly signed the offensive blue liner to a deal worth over $26 million for five years.  They would follow that up by signing Jiri Hudler to a 4 year, $16 million deal.

While the Flames should be an improved club.  I still question how much have they improved.  They still have not addressed their concerns at centre ice, and in fact things have gotten worse with Olli Jokinen signing in Winnipeg.  With star players Jarome Iginla and Mikka Kiprusoff not getting any younger, I don’t see the Flames challenging the Canucks for division supremacy.  In fact I see them as a bubble club who will fight hard for a playoff spot, but will need a little luck and some good bounces just to sneak into the top 8.

 

Colorado Avalanche: The Avalanche added winger P.A. Parenteau on a 4 year $16 million deal to help boost their offence.  Parenteau gives the team a solid top 6 group of forwards including Matt Duchene, Paul Stastny, Gabriel Landeskog, David Jones, and Milan Hejduk.  The Avalanche also have a solid goalie tandem in Semyon Varlamov and J.S. Giguere.  However I feel that their defence needs improvement and will keep them from challenging for the division crown this early.  Moves to shore up the blue line, or the development of young blue liners in their system are needed before they can realistically challenge the Canucks.

 

Edmonton Oilers: The Oilers big free agent acquisition is young defenceman Justin Schultz.  They also added #1 overall draftee Nail Yakupov and new head coach Ralph Krueger.  I believe that with the amount of young stars maturing, that this could be a year the Oilers become one of the most improved clubs in the NHL and fight for a playoff spot.  The Oilers lethal PP has only gotten better with the additions of Schulz and Yakupov.  However there are still some areas of concern including whether or not Sam Gagner can succeed as the number 2 centre behind RNH, the overall defensive end of the ice, and the goaltending.  If the Oilers can take that next step, the team may challenge for a playoff spot as early as this season.  However, I do not believe they will be able to knock the Canucks off their perch just yet.

 

Minnesota Wild:  As we all know by now, the Wild clearly made the biggest moves in free agency, grabbing the two biggest stars available.  The team should be much improved with Parise and Suter and probably has the best chance of challenging Vancouver in the division.  They are going to need a little bit of luck and the rapid development of their excellent prospect core, if they are going to challenge the Canucks this year.  While I think the Wild have an excellent chance to make the playoffs, I think they are probably still a year or two away from taking this division.  Once they add and develop their youth like Granlund, Coyle, Brodin et al.  and have them firing on all cylinders though, look out.

 

Vancouver Canucks:  The Canucks only major loss this offseason has been defenceman Sami Salo.  However he was more than adequately replaced by signing Jason Garrison to a 6 year deal at  $4.6 million per season.  The Canucks still face the issue of having Roberto Luongo on the roster, however a summer trade should also help them to strengthen the club, as they will add assets in any deal.  The Canucks were upset in the playoffs by the eventual champion L.A. Kings, bringing a strong season to a disappointing end.   Still featuring a club that is deep in all areas, their goals include far more than just repeating as division champions.  They should once again be viewed as a legitimate Stanley Cup Contender.

 

With so many quality free agents entering the division, each of these teams have Rocky Mountain high hopes that they have improved their clubs.  And the quality of the 4 challengers should certainly improve this year.  However, I feel that it will take a bit more time before any of the other clubs is ready to knock the Canucks off their mountain perch.

 

Feel free to leave your comments below and follow me on twitter @lastwordBkerr.

Parise/Suter fallout: How long is too long?

Job security. What is job security worth to you? I know that I value job security very high when looking for a new job. Company stability, the face value of the company, and things people say about the company both in person and on the internet. I pay attention to all of this to assure a happy stay and to enjoy my day-to-day 40 plus hour work week. So in that sense I am like most people.  In general, people tend to stay at a job that they enjoy with a good boss even for slightly less pay, because it is a lot easier to show up for work every day when the environment is one that you enjoy. However there are others who want to take on the responsibility and the humongous pressure that comes with a higher paycheck. Those people are sometimes rewarded and sometimes those people become Patrick Bateman.

The NHL offseason presents us with a good view on what path individual NHL players would like to choose. There have been many stories of players taking less money, staying put, and helping the team pick up another key player to help a franchise win it all. Those players, and Nicklas Lidstrom is a good example, could have received ridiculous sums of money to play for another team hungry for a franchise player. Those big signings though, with added pressure on the player, hardly ever a create success. Think about the NY Rangers and Glen Sather’s career behind the helm. He, unlike most GM’s in the NHL, has a checkbook with endless zeros attached to it. Yet he has yielded no championships to show for it, while owning the rights to one of the best goalies to lace up since the lockout – Henrik Lundqvist.

This brings me of course to Parise and Suter signings in Minnesota with contracts scheduled to be worth around 196 million dollars combined after all said and done. The 13 year deals for each player seem like a good idea for hockey crazy Minnesota and their long time – starving for a superstar – franchise. Will Suter and Parise deliver where Gaborik, Heatley and Havlat failed? No one knows. Both players are top-tier talent and are just hitting their prime (both are 27 and very good friends from the reports of how this signing went down), but Suter will have to prove he can perform being separated from Weber and Parise’s numbers have tailed off a bit following his injury in 2010-11. The internet is divided on this issue as well. The main cause of criticism of rouse is not their talent, but the contracts that Minnesota GM Chuck Fletcher decided to dish out.

These contracts are nothing new to NHL. In fact, according to capgeek.com we have over 21 players in NHL right now with contracts eight years or longer.  In comparison among the top 25 highest cap hit players in the NHL, only seven belong to players whose contracts go eight or more years. This means that under current CBA, teams have found a loophole. Front load the players contracts so that they are worth huge money in the first few years of the deal and in later years reduce their salary to only a few million and hope they retire, taking the cap hit off the books. Here is the full breakdown of  Parise/Suter contract details, and you can see how the structure creates big pay outs up front, and low payouts at the end to lower the average annual value (or cap hit) associated with the contract.

This is a good thing for the players, they get job security and huge amount of cash to bling out their cribs, but it leaves a bad taste in your mouth as a fan. I just cannot see what good can come out of such long-term marriages. What do you do with players when they do turn 33/34 years old and have a CAP hit of 7.5 million while making only two or three. Trade them to the Islanders?

There is a lot of good that came out of the salary CAP era post lock-out in the NHL. We had 7 different Stanley Cup winners and four of them were not original six franchises. Teams are being competitive, fans are excited, and winners are unpredictable. What I fear, and am maybe a bit bitter about the Parise/Suter deal too, is the long-term deals will make NHL stale and player movement, among big superstars goes extinct. Ten year deals should be allowed only to the franchise caliber player. Maybe a new CBA can limit teams to a franchise tag of one or two players so that teams have to build around that player. You still get the risk, but you will not be able to hoard these types of players and contracts.

Think about it. If Suter/Parise and the long-term deals before them, instead were forced to 7 year terms? The impact of a 9.5 million cap hit compared to 7.5 million? The structure of teams would change drastically. Would Malkin and Crosby be able to play together? This constraint creates more dynamic off-season and puts more value on to a balanced team with good young cheap talent. I am all for job security, but at the end of it all NHL is a spectator sport. It loses its value when the fans get bored. Think about it…You have heard the last word on Crosby, Parise, Suter, Quick, Kovalchuk, Ovie, Keith, Zetterberg, Richards, Hossa, Carter, and Doughty and will likely not see them on the FA market again.

 

… and that is the Last Word.

Why Anderson Silva Will Beat Chael Sonnen

The main event of UFC 148 is shaping up to be one of the biggest fights of the year – if not in the history of MMA. The re-match between Anderson Silva (considered to be the best ever by many) and Chael Sonnen (the only man to ever come close to beating Silva) will no doubt be an exciting one. However, I don’t believe this to be the case for many of the reasons that others do; RE: Sonnen is going to walk away with the belt.

I am fairly certain that Anderson Silva will put on a clinic the likes of which we haven’t seen from the longtime middleweight champion. And I believe when the night is over, everyone will be talking about why Silva is the greatest the sport has ever seen. Here’s why…

1)      Anderson Silva is healthy: In the first fight Silva claims that he was suffering from both a rib and back injury; I can’t find any reason not to believe what he’s saying. Silva has never made excuses for his performance in the ring. This would also be the only other explanation as to how he was so easily controlled on the ground (if Silva could escape Henderson, why couldn’t he escape a wrestler of an arguably lesser caliber?)

2)      Silva is fired-up: It could have just been to further build-up the fight, but last week Anderson Silva verbally fired at his opponent like we’ve never seen before. While Silva is usually very calm and mild-mannered, his most decisive victories have come when he has felt like he has had something to prove (i.e. KO of Vitor Belfort).

3)      Silva is ready for Sonnen this time: While I do think injury played a role in the last fight, I also think Silva grossly underestimated Sonnen’s game. This time, I think he is ready for the shoot and the striking game of Sonnen. Silva just has too many tools in his arsenal, and I think we’re going to see them all on display this weekend.

4)      Sonnen doesn’t have the benefit of steroids: I am just going to leave this one where it is. You judge for yourself.

5)      Silva is on a roll:  14-0 in the UFC. Enough said.

6)      Silva is ready for retirement: Anderson Silva is getting old, no 38 years old. Very few fighters remain effective this late into their career (Randy Couture being an exception). Silva has stated publicly on numerous occasions that he is ready to retire. He wants to cement his legacy and end the one question-mark on his career.

This is by no means to say that I think Chael Sonnen doesn’t have a shot at winning, I just really don’t think his odds of victory are very good. In fact, I think they’re even less than I did the first time. One thing, however, that I have said over and over that makes the sport of MMA so great is the lack of predictability.

I am looking forward to seeing each fighter’s respective game plan coming into this fight, as I don’t think it will be what anyone is expecting. I just truly don’t believe it matters what Sonnen has planned, he’ll likely be going home in defeat.

… and that is the last word.

Left Scrambling: Where Do the Losers in the Parise/Suter Sweepstakes Turn Now?

As you all know by now, Zach Parise and Ryan Suter have signed identical 13 year contracts to play for the Minnesota Wild.  The two prize free agents of this year’s class have made their decision, and it was a somewhat surprising one.  This move obviously makes the Wild the early winners of this year’s free agent sweepstakes, and off-season roster changes in general.  However, what happens to the other teams that were clearly in on Parise and/or Suter?  What about their old clubs?  What do these clubs need to do to improve their rosters for next season? *Editor’s note, these teams are placed in alphabetical order*

 

Chicago Blackhawks: The Hawks were rumored to be after Suter to upgrade the defensive core and after Parise up-front.  With Suter, and now Matt Carle (signed in Tampa Bay), off the market, where do they turn next?  There are some definite trade options, however I do not think Chicago’s defence is that bad.  In Keith, Seabrook, Leddy, Hjalmarsson, and Oduya they have a decent group. Perhaps they could use another depth player as an upgrade, but it shouldn’t be a huge concern despite the push for Suter.

Meanwhile up-front the Hawks still feature Toews, Kane, Sharp, Hossa (who will hopefully be ready to start the season), Stallberg, and Bolland.  This is not a bad group and still contains much of the firepower that helped the team win the 2010 Stanley Cup.  The Hawks could use an upgrade at the 2nd line centre position but this will need to come via a trade, as there is little left in free agency.  When Kyle Wellwood is the best centre available, you know there is just no true top-six guy there.

From my perspective, the Hawks biggest need is a goalie, as Crawford and Emery faltered down the stretch last year.  I believe they need to go looking for a legitimate number 1 and should make some trade offers for guys like Roberto Luongo, and Jonathan Bernier who may be available.

Detroit Red Wings:  The Wings off-season has been a tumultuous one.  The team lost its captain, its most recognizable face, and its heart and soul in the retirement of Nicklas Lidstrom.  They also have over $16 million in cap space.  With such a sizeable hole on their blueline, and the cap space to make the deal, it was widely assumed that the Red Wings would sign Suter.  While the team was rumored to also be bidding on Parise, it is obvious that the team’s big need is on the blue line.  With Matt Carle off the market, a new top pairing defenceman is quite simply no longer available in free agency.  I believe that the Red Wings should now explore trade options for players who are rumored to be available like Keith Yandle from Phoenix, or Jay Bouwmeester from the Calgary Flames.  There may even be others whose have not been speculated yet in trade rumors.  The hole on the blueline is sizable and it is doubtful that the Wings can fill it internally, so the trade route must be explored.

Nashville Predators: The Predators have lost their number-two blue liner in Suter.  This has seemingly come as a shock to David Poile who obviously believed that Suter would re-sign with the club.  The attention must now turn to Shea Weber, a restricted free agent, and a player who is arguably even more important to the Predators.  Poile can not allow this situation to repeat itself.  He must work on signing Weber to a long-term extension this summer and cannot allow him to be an unrestricted free agent next summer.  What happens next will be up to Weber.

If Weber signs an extension, then the Predators should use the cash and cap space they had earmarked for Suter on improving their offence.  They should go hard after a player like Shane Doan in Free Agency, or a Bobby Ryan via trade in an attempt to score more goals.  While Suter does leave a sizeable hole on the blueline, the Predators have been drafting and developing defencemen for years.  In players like Roman Josi, Kevin Klein, Jonathan Blum, and Ryan Ellis they should have a number of pieces that will help them to mitigate the loss of Suter in many ways.

If Weber does not sign an extension, he must be immediately put on the trade market.  The Predators should extract a king’s ransom for their number one defenceman and begin the process of rebuilding the blueline.  While they might be able to mitigate the loss of Suter with their internal replacements, the loss of both stars would be too much.  They would need to explore what is available on the trade market in terms of number one defencemen.

New Jersey Devils: The Devils are obviously smarting after the loss of their captain and emotional leader.  However, it has never been Lou Lamoriello’s style to attempt to replace one star by signing another.  The Devils did not go out in an attempt to sign the next big star after losing players like Scott Stevens, Bobby Holik, Brian Rafalski, Scott Niedermayer, or Scott Gomez.  The Devils have instead looked to replace the player internally, or through solid cheaper acquisitions.  I believe that this loss will be no different.  If anything I see the Devils potentially rolling the dice on a player like Wojtek Wolski, Peter Mueller, or Andrei Kostitsyn rather than going after a higher profile name.

Philadelphia Flyers: The Flyers were another team said to be in on both players.  The Flyers had plenty of offence this past season, and their only big losses up front at this point are 40-year old Jaromir Jagr, and the oft-injured James Van Riemsdyk.  With Claude Giroux who is quickly becoming one of the best centres in the NHL, and young players like Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier, Wayne Simmonds, Matt Read, and Jacob Voracek continuing to develop I believe the Flyers will still have a formidable offence next season.  This past season the defence suffered greatly from the loss of Chris Pronger, and has now lost Matt Carle in free agency.  While the addition of Luke Schenn helps fill some gaps, it is not near enough for a team whose defence was exposed in the playoffs by both the Penguins and the Devils.  The only reason the Flyers even beat the Penguins was that they quite simply outscored them in a series where defending was near non-existent.   For this reason I believe that the Flyers should be exploring the same trade options as the Detroit Red Wings.

Pittsburgh Penguins: The Penguins cleared a ton of cap space at the NHL Draft in an attempt to go after these two players.  They were rumored to be heavily involved in the Parise sweepstakes, and even had Sidney Crosby call Parise to try to convince the winger to come to Pittsburgh.  With Cap space to spare and defensive prospects a plenty, I think the Penguins still need to find an effective winger to play with Sid.  They should make a hard pitch for unrestricted free agents Shane Doan and possibly Alex Semin.  If that doesn’t work the Penguins should look at Rick Nash and Bobby Ryan in the NHL trade Market.   On the defence, a short-term stop-gap until the prospects are ready may be a better option than going for a big name.

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