Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

NFC Preview

The balance of power in the NFL is shifting.  Maybe more than just an injury, Peyton Manning’s absence from this opening weekend’s games signifies the official end of the dominance of the AFC over the NFC.  The NFC has now won the last two Superbowls, before that they have won just two of the previous nine.  Michael Lombardi of NFL.com recently wrote on excellent article on NFL division power rankings.  His rankings put three NFC divisions in the top four (Ranking: North, East, AFC East, South).  Only the lowly NFC West is dragging the conference down coming up last.

Should this be a surprise?  Look at the list of QB’s: Rodgers, Brees, Vick, Ryan, Romo, Freeman.  Follow the QB’s and you see why the NFC is so dangerous this year, and this is before factoring in Sam Bradford and Matt Stafford, the two most dangerous up and coming players.

Sure the AFC still has more dangerous Super Bowl contenders, but top to bottom the NFC reigns supreme.  What does all this mean?  Well it means that predicting the NFC division winners this year is no easy task.  With so many good teams the winners will come down to one thing: division games.  The good teams will win and lose their fair share with few pulling away from the pack.  That means it all comes down to how you did against your biggest division foes.  This is how the NFC breaks down for me.

NFC EAST

  1. Philly 10-6 – The offense has questions with an unsorted offensive line and three less than 100% Wide Receivers.  But the defense holds it together while they get it sorted out.
  2. Dallas 9-7 – Dangerous on offense.  Makes up for a shaky secondary.
  3. Washington 8-8 – Mike Shannahan has installed his offense and his run game will look a lot more like his Denver days.  This will take a lot of pressure off of Rex Grossman, but can he play well all season?
  4. New York Giants – 7-9 – An offseason with few additions has ended with several injuries to the defense. How will they make it through the season?

NFC North

  1. Green Bay 12-4 – Rodgers is too good and the roster too deep to look elsewhere in the division.
  2. Detroit 9-7 (WC)– The offense is explosive and the D-Line has the ability to dominate which is becoming the only thing that matters against the leagues top QB’s.  Should be a strong home team.
  3. Minnesota 8-8 – Still that big, tough, veteran team from two years back.  Now they will have decent QB’ing to go with it.
  4. Chicago 8-8 – How many games can this O-line win in a division with three strong D-lines?

NFC South

  1.  New Orleans 11-5 – Injuries simply cannot be as bad as last year. A renewed run game lets Brees rip it up again.
  2. Atlanta10-6 (WC)– Had some nice breaks last year that led to their dominant record. Still like them.
  3. Tampa Bay 8-8 – Played tough against good teams last year but too many wins came against the scrubs.
  4. Carolina 5-11 – Don’t see them as a pushover with strong run game and defense, but who do they beat?

NFC West

  1. St Louis 9-7 – I have no idea so let’s go with the divisions best Quarterback.
  2. Arizona 8-8 – Kolb-Fitz, Kolb-Fitz, Kolb-Fitz, Kolb-Fitz, Kolb-Fitz and Kolb-Fitz
  3. Seattle 4-12 – TavarisJackson. Is that how you spell his name? I’m not looking it up.
  4. San Fran 2-14 – How pumped up can the players get for a game with Alex Smith?

Playoffs:

Wild Card Round: Atlanta over St. Louis, Detroit over Philly

Divisional Round: Detroit over Green Bay, Atlanta over New Orleans

Conference Championship: Atlanta over Detroit

AFC Preview

The AFC is considerably less interesting than the NFC, at least as far as the top of each division goes.  While it might be tempting to pick Baltimore to rise up and conquer the Steelers or to think the Jets are ready to make the next step and win the AFC East it probably won’t happen.  This is a QB league and to go against the likes of Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger is nothing short of foolish.  I’m not saying it can’t happen; it’s just not very likely to happen.

So what about the other two divisions?  There is a little more drama here with Manning out for an indefinite amount of time and Kansas City coming off a division title in the West.  Let’s settle the West first.  KC is not winning again.  Last year was a product of an improving team meeting the right schedule, specifically the easiest one in the league.  This turns the West into another automatic. Philip Rivers is the king of the West and looks to assert his dominance again this season.

So that leaves us with one wild card division:  The South.  Indy still has a handful of superstars; their pride and surely a huge chip on their shoulder after watching everyone write them off at the drop of a hat this past week.  Houston, the perennial pre-season contender has everything they need on offense. But they have been nothing if not soft over these past few years; can they ever turn it around and play kick-ass football?  The Titans have a new coach, new QB and same O-Line / RB combo.  Is it enough to turn their fortunes? Jacksonville is last with a newly anointed starting QB and a barley improved defensive secondary that got chewed up last year.  Let’s see how it all shakes out:

AFC EAST

  1. New England 13-3 – One of the most loaded rosters in the league can seemingly play any style of ball.  Will the new D-Line be a force that takes them to the next level?
  2. New York Jets 12-4 – A solid team that fights for every yard.  But they can’t best the Pats of a 16 game schedule without better Quarterback play.
  3. Miami 5-11 – Tough team returns but is the organization in shambles?
  4. Buffalo 5-11 – Ryan Fitzpatrick is who they choose to be their QB.

AFC NORTH

  1. Pittsburgh 13-3 – One of the easiest schedules in the league for one of the best teams.
  2. Baltimore10 -6 – With speed issues and O-line problems if any contender slips it could be the Ravens.
  3. Cleveland 9-7 – Ride easy schedule to dominating start before falling with four of last five games against the Steelers and Ravens.  How does that happen?
  4. Cincy 1-15 – I don’t even think they are that bad, but how do you start a rookie second round pick at QB?

AFC SOUTH

  1. Houston 12-4 – Count me in as a Wade Phillips believer.  For one regular season at least.
  2. Tennessee 10-6 – Hasselbeck + dominant O-line = Easy Completions
  3. Jacksonville 4-12 – Tell me how they improved, then explain how they managed to win 8 last season.
  4. Indy 3-13 – Might be a few weeks of tough play before they realize they can never score more than 17 points.  Are we sure Caldwell is an NFL calibre coach?

AFC WEST

  1.  San Diego 13-3 – Don’t go against Rivers.  Most explosive passing attack in football could be in San Diego.
  2. Denver 8-8 – I like Fox to come in and give these guys an attitude.  Additions of Dumervil (injury) and Von Miller (draft) will make this a ferocious pass rush.
  3. KC 6-10 – This is about how good they were last year.  Count me out as a Haley believer.
  4. Oakland 4-12 – Any time you change your well liked coach and you are also the Oakland Raiders I am predicting you for 4 wins max the next season.

PLAYOFFS

Wild Card Round: Pittsburgh over Baltimore, Jets over Houston

Divisional Round: Pittsburgh over San Diego, New England over Jets

Conference Championship: New England over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

New England over Atlanta

The Hunt for October

The path to the postseason is only paved with gold for some. Teams like Philly, Milwaukee, and Detroit look to be safe strolling down the yellow brick road. Arizona also looks to be in the drivers seat in the NL West, but I would advise them to keep the throttle down with the defending champs still in the rearview mirror. The other 2 division leaders aren’t so lucky. And as October looms, it looks like we will still be treated with a few dog-fights before the season ends.

Heading down the stretch, the AL East and AL West are still up for grabs. In the AL West, the L.A Angels are 2.5 games back of the current division leaders, the Texas Rangers. Texas has 18 games left, 6 against Oakland, 6 against Seattle, 3 against Cleveland, and their final 3 games of the season against the Angels. Which is actually a pretty easy schedule, playing the bottom 2 teams in their division 12 times out of the remaining 18. The Angels have it a little tougher over their remaining 19 games. They start with a 3 game series against the Yankees, play a 4 game series against the streaking Jays, and finish with that pivotal 3 game series against Texas. It would be nice if that final series between the 2 teams was going to decide which team will be playing ball in October, but my hunch is that Texas will have the division clinched by then.

In the AL East it’s a similar story. The Boston Red Sox are also 2.5 games back of the team which is leading their division, The New York Yankees. The Red Sox have looked bad lately dropping 6 of their last 8, and their schedule isn’t going to do them any favours. They have 19 games left. Of those 19, 7 are against Tampa Bay, 3 against the Yankees, and 2 more against the Jays who just handed them 3 loses this week. The silver lining is that they have 7 more games against the abysmal Orioles. The Yankees have 20 games left, playing 14 of the 20 in 13 days, which doesn’t make for an easy home stretch either. They have another 7 against the Rays, 3 with games each against, the Jays, the Angeles, the Mariners, and of course the Red Sox. They also have a make-up game against the Twins. Now I know what your thinking, as good as the battle for first place will be, because of their dominate records, the loser will still make the post season via the wild card spot. Well that is the most likely outcome, lets not count out the Rays. They are 9 games out of first, and 6.5 out of the wild card spot, but they have a combined 14 games against the Yankees and the Bo Sox, and they did win the division last year. It is a big mountain to climb, but their fate is in their hands.

That brings us to the wild card race. Which has little to no excitement in store. In the National League, Atlanta has it all but locked up, with St. Louis and San Fran a ways behind. And in the American League it pretty much belongs to the loser of the AL East race, which right now looks like Boston. But as I said earlier the Rays are still in the mix, as well as the loser of the Texas/L.A battle, but they would have to make up a lot of ground.

MLB – Probable Postseason Change

Eight teams make the playoffs in the current postseason format in Major Leauge Baseball; four from each of the American and National Leagues. Of the four teams representing each league, there are three division winners and one “wild card”. The wild card is awarded to the team with the best record amongst the teams that did not win a division title.  The first round of the postseason, called the Division Series (ALDS, and NLDS), has the four teams from each league play a best of five-game series determined by rank to see who moves on to the Championship Series.  The Championship Series (ALCS, and NLCS) has the remaining two teams from each league play a best of seven-game series to see who represents their respective league in the World Series. The World Series has the winner from each league play a seven-game series to determine who is the best team in baseball.

It’s an efficient format, but the downfall is that only eight teams make the postseason. In a league of 30 teams, that’s less than one-third. So making the postseason is tough, and if you’re a team like the Blue Jays it’s next to impossible being stuck in a division with two of the most dominate teams in Baseball. The Red Sox and Yankees are almost always fighting for the division lead, and whoever loses usually claims the lone wild card spot. Will the new proposed format change that? Well… no, not really. But it will give teams like the Jays a better shot.

There is a newly proposed format which will see 10 teams make the post season instead of the current eight. Basically everything will remain the same with the three division winners going through, but now instead of one wild card spot, there would be two.  The implications are very encouraging for teams who have been on the fringe of playoff baseball such as the Jays.  Toronto could finish third in their division and still earn a birth into the postseason. The other twist would be that before the Division Series there would be an extra round in where the two wild card teams from each league would square off in a one game playoff to see who plays in the Division Series.

To use the Jays analogy again, if the Red Sox finished first in the division, and the Yankees finished second and took the first wild card spot, the Jays (providing they had the best record of the remaining teams) could take the second wild card spot, beat the Yankees in a one game playoff, and move on to the ALDS. The only downfall is that you would probably use your best pitcher for the one game playoff making him unavailable for the first few games of the next series.  Aside from that it’s a step in the right direction.  And that is the  last word.

 

An NFL Classic at Lambeau: A Lesson to be Learned from Americans

The NFL season kicked off last night with a classic at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. The contest pitted two strong, balanced teams and two elite pivots – Rodgers vs. Brees.

If you watched the broadcast last night, you will no doubt agree that the Americans certainly know how to wave their flags, and that’s a lesson we can all learn from.

To begin, recording artist Kid Rock performed in front of many thousands of fans screaming while waving little American flags. While I could give a flying crap about Kid Rock, it was a good show.

And then to start the game, the crowd at Lambeau was transformed into a giant waving flag…are you picking up on the night’s theme? Really, it was spectacular.

And just prior to kickoff, singer Jordin Sparks sang the national anthem. She did well. I’m still not a fan, but she was great.

The whole time I was comparing the way Americans seem to wave their flags every chance they get, while we don’t seem to have the same enthusiasm.

Are other countries passionate about where they come from? Of course! We all bleed red in Canada (I do see the irony that blood is red)… but we don’t seem to want to jump up and down and wave our flags in the same way.

So what is right? Are the Americans waving their flags at events like last night’s game because they love their country, or because it has become part of their culture? I think a little of both.

I believe that the passion is the same, whether American, Canadian or other. But the way we demonstrate it is not. Own the Podium, our Olympic campaign for the Vancouver games, took a step forward, but our American friends have a gigantic head start.

Peyton Manning in Jeopardy

NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi is reporting that Peyton Manning underwent a third surgery on Thursday morning.  He is also speculating this surgery could delay his recovery 10-12 weeks.  He believes that if his recovery is in fact delayed this long that the Colts may decide to IR the all-star QB, ending his season.

How would the team respond to this development?  We all know about the Colts superstars: Wayne, Clark, Freeney, Mathis, Saturday.  But without Manning do these guys play like superstars anymore?  More importantly, do the Colts have the depth that will be able to step up in Manning’s absence?

The answer here is emphatic: No.  Kerry Collins has been washed up for years and simply will not give his team a chance to compete.  The offensive line is strong at pass-blocking with Manning behind center, but Collins simply cannot get rid of the ball as quickly as Manning.  The running game has not be effective in years.  And possibly the biggest factor is the style of defense they have. They are built to have the lead and rush the passer.  Although not dominant they are effective at this.  How will the defense respond when they are behind and teams are pounding them with the run game?

I don’t see how the Colts can complete with the Texans and maybe even the Titans all season long without Manning.

… and thats the Last Word

 

The Serie A Strike is over!

It’s finally here – the Serie A strike has come to an end! The Italian Players’ Association (AIC) and the club owners have reached an interim agreement that will expire June 2012. As the season begins, here are some predictions for the year:

It will most likely be a very tight race to the scudetto this year with AC Milan, Internazionale FC, and SSC Napoli being the strongest of the contenders. Finishing in first place and retaining last year’s crown will most likely be AC Milan as they are all-around the best team in Serie A at the moment. Not far off from first place should be their cross-city rivals, Internazionale FC, with their strength and depth in attack helping them to stay close. Finishing comfortably in third place should be SSC Napoli. The Neapolitans have reinforced their squad with the addition of key signings (Pandev and Inler) who increase the quality of the team. Finishing fourth in Serie A this term should be a toss-up between Lazio, Juventus, and Roma. Lazio should be the better pick of the three since they were in title contention for most of last year’s campaign. The Laziali have kept hold of their main players and have significantly strengthened their frontline with the acquisitions of Djibril Cissé and Miroslav Klose. Together, Lazio should be a goal-scoring machine this season. It remains unknown whether Juventus and Roma can push for a Champions League spot. Juventus, fresh from two consecutive seven-place finishes in Serie A, have once again completely revamped the squad bringing in a new and inexperienced coach in Antonio Conte as well as several new signings. Pirlo, the most notable signing, will show his class on the pitch. But will Elia, Estigarribia, Lichtensteiner, Vidal, Giaccherini, and Vucinic make that step up in quality which the Old Lady of Turin has needed since their return to the top flight? AS Roma, now owned by Thomas DiBenedetto, are also coached by the inexperienced Luis Enrique and have made some key signings as well before the transfer market ended obtaining players with high calibre – Bojan Krkic, Erik Lamela, Fernando Gago, Gabriel Heinze, Pablo Osvaldo, Miralem Pjanic, youngster Fabio Borini, and Simon Kjaer in defence. It will be surprising to see Lazio, Juventus, or Roma end the campaign better than fourth place. My pick: Lazio – although fourth spot no longer qualifies for the Champions League.

Top 4 picks:

1) AC Milan

2) Internazionale FC

3) SSC Napoli

4) SS Lazio, Juventus FC, AS Roma

I predict AC Milan striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic will be the leading goal scorer this season and Daniele De Rossi of AS Roma will receive the most cards.

Here are some of the key matches of week two:

Milan v Lazio – this is will be a tough test for the defending champions to start off the season. Lazio has beefed up their forwards with the purchase of France International Djibril Cisse, and Germany International Miroslav Klose.

Palermo v Inter-Milan – this will be a very tough match for inter. The Sicilians have always been strong on home turf. But how well will they cope with the loss of Javier Pastore?

Juventus v Parma. The Old Lady will face the team that started their downfall last season. This time around, they will aim to impress in their new stadium. I predict Lecce, Novara, and Cesena to be relegated to Serie B.

Here are my predictions for week two:

Milan v Lazio – Milian wins.

Parlermo v Inter – Tie.

Juventus v Parma – Juventus wins.

Chievo v Novara – Chievo wins.

Genoa v Atalanta – Tie.

Roma v Cagliari – Upset of the week = Cagliari wins.

Cesena v Napoli – Napoli wins.

Catania v Siena – Catania wins.

Fiorentina v Bologna – Fiorentina wins.

Lecce v Udinese – Udinese wins.

Good luck to those who play ProLine!

 

That’s the last word on Soccer.

Twitter me @lastwordfrank

Sidney Crosby: "for now", not forever!

Sidney Crosby addressed the media this Wednesday to explain to the hockey world the state of his recovery. What would normally be front and center was of course overshadowed by the tragedy that struck the KHL yesterday. It is extremely saddening to hear about the Lokomotiv hockey team. As far as Sid goes, his delayed return in my opinion is not sad at all.

In summary Crosby skated but is not cleared for contact. He was quoted as saying “the last three weeks have been really good. I feel myself getting better and better.” Good news but there is still no timetable for his return. Pittsburgh trainers are optimistic for a return this year but will not allow it until Crosby is fully recovered and back to normal.

Crosby will have a hard time getting back into the shape he was at last year before the concussion. He was on pace to reach 132 points had he played the full season. No player has broken 130 in a single year since Penguins stars Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr did it centuries ago in the 95-96 season. It’s too bad for Crosby that he couldn’t complete the campaign. Sid’s best tally thus far was 120 points back in 06-07.

Patience is a virtue some say, and when you consider the risks that Crosby faces, it definitely is. I could care less if he starts the season, joins in after the all-star break, or misses the whole year. Why? Because I would rather watch him play for the next 15 years. It is good to see that the situation is being handled as carefully as possible. The face of the NHL will be sorely missed for now, but “for now” is better than forever.

CFL – A Labour of Love!

This past Labour Day Weekend in the Canadian Football League featured four Crazy games, with surprising results.

First on Friday Night Football the BC Lions beat the Toronto Argonauts 29 to 16 in front of just over 19,000 at Skydome. What overshadowed the argo loss were easily catchable dropped balls by receivers, and Dalton Bell’s stat at one point of throwing 4 interceptions and 4 complete passes. Yes you read it correctly, Dalton Bell.  Argo Coach Jim Barker pulled starting quarterback Cleo Lemon for Dalton Bell to begin the second half. Lemon, clearly upset with the change, did not act very professionally and in jest reacted while Bell struggled. At one point, he sarcastically pretended to slit his neck. I believe this lack of support Lemon showed Bell was one of the many reasons Lemon was released by the Argos this past Tuesday. Jim Barker did not want to start another quarterback controversy or have a divided locker room. So the easiest thing to do was get rid of the cause of the problem. Plus quarterback Steven Jyles is coming off the nine game injured list for the Argos rematch in Vancouver. So Barker is expecting better results from their prized off season move.

Also in this game, offensive lineman and hated dirty opponent Rob Murphy tore his ACL and is out for the season. Currently the situation for the boatmen is looking very bleak and I LOVE IT! ARGOS SUCK!!!!!!!!

Sunday afternoon 1-7 Saskatchewan under new old coach Ken Miller beat up 7-1 Winnipeg, 27-7. This game was very surprising as the Roughriders looked like the team with the winning record and the Blue Bombers, being the better team just stunk. But this goes to show the importance of Labour Day and the team that is better prepared and more hungry will win, despite their record.  Dariant Durant was lights out as the Green Riders dominated this game. One will ask if the new found spark from the coaching change will last? Ken Miller was a looser coach than his predecessor Greg Marshall, who was more business and authoratative. Miller’s paternal demeanour and willingness to let loose and dance in-front of his players was more respected and as a result his players responded well to it. I feel Ken Miller has a stronger pulse on this team and will get a few more wins out of them. However I don’t see the Rough Riders making the playoffs because this team is too far behind the eight ball, and many of these players simply are too old.

On Labour Day Monday my Hamilton Tiger Cats hammered the Montreal Alouettes 44 to 21. Ticat receiver Maurice Mann fumbled early deep in Hamilton territory which resulted in spotting Montreal a 7 point lead. But Alouette Quarterback Anthony Cavillo couldn’t do anything right and showed his frustration as the Ticat defense truly ate them raw. The game’s key turning point came at the end of the first half when the Hamilton defence stopped Montreal from scoring three times on the one yard line. Hamilton went into the half up 14 points rather than 7. Throw in two Quinton Porter TDs, a Maurice Mann TD,

And that is the last word.