Welcome back to the Most Important Players in MLB Series, Volume IV. This time around we will take a look at the most important players for each of the National League Central teams. So far we’ve covered the AL East, NL East, and the AL Central, so if you’re so inclined go back and read up on those divisions’ MIPs.
The Most Important Players in 2015: NL Central
The National League Central is routinely one of baseballs most enticing divisions but perhaps even more so in recent years. Heading into 2015, the division looks as entertaining as ever with every team having at least a decent chance at competing for a playoff spot. With the Cardinals, Brewers, and Pirates all geared up for another strong campaign and the Cubs monumental offseason, the NL Central is certainly a division up for grabs this season. If I had to guess, the following players will play the biggest roles in their respective team’s success or failure in 2015.
As defined in the previous articles, a team’s MIP is not the same as the team’s MVP. In some cases a team’s MIP will also be their MVP, but in most cases they will not. These are those players for the AL Central’s teams.
Side Note: Teams are listed in order from bottom to top of where they finished in the division last season.
Chicago Cubs: 1B, Anthony Rizzo
Here’s another case of a player who is both the MVP and MIP for his team. Plain and simply put Rizzo is the rock of the Cubs. Without him, this team is a shell of itself, even with their revamped roster. While most of the Cubs headlines last season centered around the MLB debuts of highly-touted prospects Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, and Arismendy Alcantara, the most impactful storyline for this team was Rizzo’s immensely improved play in 2014. In addition to belting 32 home runs, Rizzo slashed .286/.386/.527 while also increasing his line drive percentage and his HR/FB percentage.
Rizzo’s performance in 2015 will likely determine whether or not the Cubs are a legitimate threat not just in the NL Central but in the National League as a whole. If Rizzo is able to improve even further on his 2014 numbers, he’ll be a MVP candidate and will likely propel the Cubs to contender status. But even if he is only able to replicate his 2014 statistics, the Cubs will still be in excellent position to compete. If he misses extended time for one reason or another, the Cubs are probably going to find themselves in a familiar spot: the NL Central basement.
Cincinnati Reds: SP, Homer Bailey
Joey Votto is certainly another guy who is deserving of this title for the Reds, but I ultimately chose Bailey for a few reasons. First, the Reds offense should be better in 2015, with or without Votto. Assuming Jay Bruce has a bounce back campaign and Billy Hamilton takes the next step, the Reds shouldn’t have problems scoring more runs this season. Second, the Reds pitching staff as a whole was awful in 2014 and much of that is due to Bailey’s disappointing year. They ranked 9th in the NL in ERA but 14th (second to last) in FIP and that’s with Johnny Cueto putting up a Cy Young worthy season. For the Reds to get back to competing for a playoff spot they’ll need Bailey to help turn those numbers around.
Considering what the Reds are paying Bailey, that’s not asking a lot. But unfortunately for the team, Bailey displayed a number of discoursing trends last season. His HR/9 and BB/9 increased while K/9 decreased. That’s not to mention the fact that his 97 ERA+ and 3.93 FIP were the worst of his career since 2011. Those numbers are about as scary to Reds fans as his doppleganger, Christian Bale was in this scene from the Dark Knight. A better version of Bailey in 2015 is crucial to the Reds’ playoff chances.
Milwaukee Brewers: RF, Ryan Braun
There’s just no way around this one, Ryan Braun is the most important player to the Brewers. Yes Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez have emerged as stars as well, but for the Brewers to win this division they need Braun to put up his MVP-caliber numbers. Entering his age 31 season, that’s a tall task for Braun whose coming off the worst full season of his career. But fortunately for Brewers fans there is hope. Now that Braun has dealt with his lingering thumb issue and claims to be back at 100%, there is certainly reason to believe he could get back to his .300/30/100 ways.
With his PED debacle behind him as well, Braun can focus solely on baseball again, something he hasn’t been able to do since 2012 when he finished 2nd in NL MVP voting. The Brewers still have some holes in their rotation that will need to be filled, but a strong comeback season from Braun would help negate the team’s underwhelming pitching staff.
Pittsburgh Pirates: RF, Gregory Polanco
The Pirates may wind up have the best outfield in baseball this season. But that hinges largely on Polanco taking strides towards fulfilling his immense potential. After an up and down rookie campaign, all eyes will be on Polanco in spring training and at the start of the season. Polanco’s 2014 started off strong as he batted .288 in his first month in the bigs (June). But from that point on things really began to slide, cumulating in a miserable .179/.303/.286 slash line in the final month (including a dreadful .171/.222/.244 against LHP for the season). If Polanco’s sophomore year starts off where he finished last season, the Pirates may be forced to platoon him.
Fortunately for Pirate fans, Polanco is likely to improve this season. His 30:59 BB:K ratio is encouraging for a rookie player and suggests he has a great eye for the ball. Additionally, at the very least Polanco should be able to provide good defense in RF as well as some speed on the base paths. Assuming Polanco is able to continue his development as a hitter, the Pirates should have a third incredible outfielder to complement Starling Marte and the great Andrew McCutchen.
St. Louis Cardinals: C, Yadier Molina
This one’s a no-brainer. It’s been said over and over before, but Yadier Molina is hands down the most important player to the Cardinals. When he’s off the field their lineup is less imposing and their pitching staff is less effective. To understand just how much Molina impacts this Cardinals team, consider the following numbers:
Cardinals’ record and ERA last season WITH Molina: 60-46, 3.19
Cardinals’ record and ERA last season WITHOUT Molina: 30-26, 4.07
That pretty well sums it up. Anyone can throw out as many numbers about Molina as they want, but none are more telling of what he does for the Cardinals than their record and ERA with and without him. So long as Molina remains healthy this upcoming season the Cardinals should and will be the favorites in the NL Central.
There you have it everyone, the most important players for each NL Central team in 2015. Next week we’ll be taking a look at the MIPs for the AL West this upcoming season.
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