NFL prop bets provide devout fantasy football zealots some of the best opportunities to take advantage of the wagering market. With all the time fans put into researching and analyzing individual players and trends, why not apply that to the betting world? Last Word On Pro Football will provide a look at some of the best prop bets for each week.
Irv Smith Jr.: Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Fantasy players have been waiting for the Minnesota Vikings to use start using athletic tight end Irv Smith Jr. Over the first four games, Smith totaled just two total receptions. However, in Week 5, Smith saw five targets on a season-high 31 routes run. His four receptions and 64 receiving yards translated to the overall TE12 performance. Smith now faces an Atlanta Falcons team that allows the most schedule adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to tight ends per 4for4. The Falcons are allowing over 18% more production than any other team, including a league-high seven touchdowns. Take the over on this low receiving prop, unfairly affected by Smith’s underwhelming start to the season.
Gardner Minshew: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-143)
There should be plenty of points in a Detroit-Jacksonville matchup with one of the highest over/unders on the Sunday slate. The Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars rank seventh and eight respectively in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. The Lions rank last among all NFL teams in sacks (five) and QB hits (16). Minshew has passed for at least two touchdowns in four of Jacksonville’s five games, and is averaging 1.63 passing touchdowns in his 19 career starts in Jacksonville. Playing at home, in an expected shootout, I’m rolling with Minshew to tally at least two touchdowns.
Cam Newton: Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-134)
I’m taking the under on this prop based on anticipated game script. The New England Patriots are currently nine-point favorites, and the Denver Broncos have ruled out starting running back Melvin Gordon and tight end Noah Fant. New England quarterback Cam Newton just returned from the COVID list and will lead a Patriots offense that should dominate time of possession. The Denver defense is decimated by injuries, and the Patriots have a plethora of efficient running backs in Damien Harris, Rex Burkhead, and James White. Newton will have early-game success, but I don’t see him eclipsing 50 yards in a game the Patriots should win by double-digits.
Jonathan Taylor: Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
The Indianapolis Colts rookie running back should be in-line for his largest opportunity share of the season against the Cincinnati Bengals. Backup running back Jordan Wilkins is questionable with a calf injury after missing practice on both Thursday and Friday. That would leave Taylor as the clear lead running back coming off a game where he saw over 70% of the running back touches. Cincinnati is missing multiple defensive linemen, and this prop is low-enough for Taylor to crest on just one reception. I’m taking the over on Taylor in receiving yards against a poor defensive Bengals unit.
Ronald Jones: Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Ronald Jones faces a Green Bay Packers defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Jones has enjoyed an increase in passing game usage, with 14 targets and nine receptions over the past two games. In a game with the Sunday highest over/under of 55 points, the lead running back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should continue to see his season average of 4.6 targets, leading to this receiving prop over.
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