Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season is officially underway and the Indianapolis Colts are set to face the Jacksonville Jaguars to open the year. It was an up-and-down season for the Colts without a doubt last year; they finished the year 7-9 after starting it 5-2. It was quickly obvious that changes needed to be made on all three phases of the ball, and that was clearly done this off-season.
The acquisition of Philip Rivers locks in a solid veteran quarterback capable of leading the team deep into the playoffs. DeForest Buckner is an All-Pro defensive lineman who’s going to be the centerpiece on a now-much-improved front group. Finally, Xavier Rhodes hasn’t had the best last two seasons but his leadership and previous Pro Bowl experience give him the resume for the team’s number one cornerback job.
While the free agency class this year was one of the most star-studded in franchise history, the 2020 draft was arguably better in terms of potential. The team didn’t hold a first-round pick but was able to secure two first-round talents in Michael Pittman Jr and Jonathan Taylor. Neither of them will begin the year extremely high on the depth chart (Pittman projected to be WR4 and Taylor expected to come in behind Marlon Mack) but their abilities will prove to be huge assets for the future of the team, especially down the stretch this season.
With that said, here are the three keys to success for the Colts heading into Week 1 against the Jaguars.
Indianapolis Colts: Three Keys to a Week 1 Victory
1. Attack Jacksonville’s Run Defense Early and Often
Philip Rivers would love to open his Indianapolis Colts career with a bang but given the Jaguars’ loss of key components on the front seven, most notably a combined 14.5 sacks from Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. In past years, it’s been a formidable force up front for Jacksonville but, as of last year, it hasn’t been close to the same. In their two meetings in 2019, the Colts rushed for an average of 198 yards (including a whopping 264 in their Week 11 matchup).
The acquisitions of Joe Schobert at middle linebacker and rookie defensive end, K’Lavon Chaisson, will be the X-factor pieces for them in order to put together a solid showing against a Colts run offense that ranked seventh in the NFL last year. In addition to the Marlon Mack/Jonathan Taylor/Nyheim Hines trio at the position, the team is also anchored with the NFL’s best offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus. Quenton Nelson and Ryan are both Pro Bowl linemen (the former a two-time All-Pro), and both Braden Smith and Anthony Castonzo are borderline Pro Bowlers, as well.
Running the ball early and often is a crucial step for the Colts if they’re going to win their first Week 1 game since 2013. Last year against the Los Angeles Chargers, Indianapolis rushed for 203 yards but couldn’t stop the passing attack (ironically led by Rivers).
2. Step Up on Pass Defense
On the subject of pass defense, the Colts’ secondary needs to step up. The team allowed a combined 591 passing yards and five touchdowns in two games against the Jaguars and only forced two interceptions. Indianapolis’ back end has gone through a major overhaul this off-season, headlined by the release of Pierre Desir and Clayton Geathers in favor of Xavier Rhodes, T.J. Carrie, and Julian Blackmon (R). They’ll need to control the game and limit Minshew as much as possible through the air; a weak passing attack will only lead to similar 2019 results.
It’s expected that the Jaguars will try and lean on their passing attack as much as possible given the loss of Leonard Fournette at running back and the top seven rush defense that the Colts possess. D.J. Chark has the skills to give the secondary a ton of trouble; he’s a speedy receiver with outstanding possession skills and is one of the best in the AFC South at his position.
Rock Ya-Sin is expected to get a fair amount of looks tomorrow given his shaky rookie campaign. If he’s able to efficiently lock down his opposing receiver and Xavier Rhodes does similarly on the opposite side, it could turn into a Colts blowout. If not, however, Minshew will be able to continuously target the weak secondary, just as he did last year.
3. Get Consistent Pressure on Gardner Minshew
One added benefit this season, however, is the Colts increase in pressure. Adding DeForest Buckner alongside Justin Houston will be a huge problem for Jacksonville and their 26th-best offensive line. While all teams needed to do last year was double-team Houston, the Jaguars have to now deal with the two-headed monster of Buckner and Houston. It’ll be a matchup nightmare, as both players possess the speed and strength to get to the quarterback often.
Front seven pressure was a huge liability for the Colts last year. While they had sporadic moments here and there, it was overall an underwhelming performance by the group. The team finished with 41 sacks in 2019 and only saw one player finish over five (Houston with 11). The lack of pressure gave teams all day to throw the ball, which also shuts down the secondary’s production throughout the course of games, as well. Defensive success starts up front, and the Colts need to prove that tomorrow.
The matchup is a favorable one overall, though. The Indianapolis Colts are currently 7.5-point favorites over their opponents. They have the offensive advantage both in the run and the pass but need to focus on the run in order for true success. On defense, the key will be to get to the quarterback as often as possible. That will lead to an increase in production on the back end. If everyone comes to fruition, the Colts will be able to walk out with their first Week 1 win in seven years.
