Tom Brady and Bill Belichick often use Thanksgiving as a deadline to see what identity their team takes. We are getting close to Thanksgiving, and it’s fair to make assumptions on what NFL teams are the real contenders to win the Super Bowl LIV.
There are no undefeated teams anymore, and that makes any analysis more fun. Picking an undefeated team to be the favorite to win the Super Bowl is too easy – much easier than picking the Week 13 games against the spread.
With over ten weeks played, it might be an adventure to try to separate the contenders from the pretenders, but let’s give it a try.
Top Contenders To Watch For
New England Patriots:
Why are the Patriots contenders?
Every sentence explaining why the Patriots are contenders starts and ends with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. To be fair, it is about the culture that the head coach and quarterback have put together over the last 19 years.
Just think about the last three teams the Patriots faced in the Super Bowl.
- The Eagles are trying to glue everything together on the run, but they still have a lot of holes, and a playoff spot is not close to being guaranteed.
- Atlanta is a mess and perhaps is one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL.
- Same goes with the LA Rams, who just months after reaching the big game seems to have lost their offensive identity.
Consistency is a big deal in the NFL. The Patriots have a winning culture that we usually take for granted. Averaging double-digit wins and getting to the playoffs year after year is a fantastic achievement that deserves more credit. Oh, and then there’s Stephon Gilmore.
How could the Patriots fail to win the Super Bowl?
The Patriots have two specific problems, and both come from the offensive side. Their offensive line is a big issue. They lost center David Andrews with blood clots in his lungs just two weeks before the start of the season. Left tackle Isaiah Wynn suffered a toe injury in week two and has spent more time on Injury Reserve than on the field.
New England had to start Marshall Newhouse as an LT, and he has been a liability. Wynn should be back later in the season, but there are no guarantees he will perform well. He hasn’t played in the NFL long enough to make that assumption. The team also misses FB James Devlin, who is out for the year with a neck injury.
The lack of a good offensive line has made Tom Brady susceptible to pressure. New England has scored touchdowns in only 50% of their Red Zone trips this season. Brady misses TE Rob Gronkowski in scoring positions. The Patriots don’t have a go-to-guy in the last 20 yards other than Julian Edelman. Maybe when rookie WR N’Keal Harry comes out of IR, he will give TB12 another option.
New Orleans Saints
Why are the Saints contenders?
The Saints could be the most complete team in the NFL when you start looking player to player. Their defense carried the team while QB Drew Brees was out with a finger injury. In three of the previous six games, the defense held opponents to ten or fewer points.
New Orleans has the best offensive three-headed monster in the NFL. Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas could be the best at their positions when all are in top form. The Saints are currently out of the top two spots in the NFC. Yet, they must deal with San Francisco in December, and that could help them gain back one of those top seeds.
How could the Saints fail to win the Super Bowl?
Health is the Saints’ worst enemy this season. They lost QB Drew Brees for five games already, and the future Hall of Famer is still is trying to find his best form. The same thing happened to RB Alvin Kamara, who just had his worst game of the season against the Falcons.
There are also two, less flashy players they need to be at 100% to win the Super Bowl. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore suffered a thigh injury against Atlanta, and he’s set to miss a few games. Lattimore is the Saints’ best player in the secondary, and his absence could expose the rest of the defense.
Then there is OT Andrus Peat, who also left the game against the Falcons due to a broken arm. Peat will be out for six weeks. New Orleans’ offensive line has played 75% of their snaps with Andrus Peat in the lineup. Brees was one of the least sacked QBs in the NFL before the injury. As soon as he went down, the Saints surrendered six sacks to the Falcons lousy pass rush. This injury is a big one.
San Francisco 49ers
Why are the 49ers contenders?
In simple terms, the 49ers have the best defense in the NFL. Their unit is a hybrid of what the Seahawks used to do during the Legion of Boom days, playing mostly Cover 3 schemes. To play this type of defense, you need smart defensive backs that can cover a lot of ground and an aggressive front seven that can win the battle pressuring the quarterbacks. It’s safe to say the Niners have those two ingredients. It also helps that they have Richard Sherman on their team, one of the members of the former Seahawks’ LOB.
San Francisco has done enough losing over the last few seasons to put together this defense via the draft and free agency. General Manager John Lynch has an excellent idea of what defense he wants. The defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has done a fantastic job combining a simple but effective scheme with his phenomenal players. For that reason, Saleh is one of the hottest names to get a head coaching job soon.
How could the 49ers fail to win the Super Bowl?
We still have no idea how good or not Jimmy Garoppolo is. During Monday Night’s loss to the Seahawks, Jimmy G did everything in his power to give away the game, and eventually, he did. To be fair, he was missing TE George Kittle, and WR Emmanuel Sanders left the game early, but that’s the reason he’s a question mark.
The playoffs are not a smooth ride. Injuries happen, and defenses get a lot more aggressive. He hasn’t shown anything that suggests he can overcome the challenges that may appear in January. Jimmy is a good QB as long as the Niners can establish the run. Against the Seahawks, San Francisco ran for 87 yards, and then Garoppolo was exposed.
Baltimore Ravens
Why are the Ravens contenders?
Baltimore’s offense is fun and is taking the league by surprise. When facing the Ravens for the first time, your team likely will get run over, literally. The Ravens have the best rushing attack in the NFL, averaging 197.2 rushing yards per game. The next best is San Francisco averaging fewer than 30 rushing yards per game.
Only ten running backs have more rushing yards than QB Lamar Jackson this season. Let me gently remind you that Jackson is a quarterback. He leads the league with 6.6 yards per attempt. His unique playing style has made Baltimore the best scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 33.3 points per game.
How could the Ravens fail to win the Super Bowl?
There are two reasons Baltimore scares me. First, their running defense is a weak link, which is ironic considering they practice against the best rushing attack in the league every week. The Bengals ran for 157 yards against them in week 10. The surprising loss to the Browns in week four saw Cleveland with 173 rushing yards in Baltimore.
And then there is a possible second matchup against the Patriots in the playoffs. Baltimore ran all over New England in week 8, but I would expect Bill Belichick to be a lot more prepared in a rematch. Meeting the Patriots for a second time won’t make the Ravens happy.
The Pretenders – Teams That Think They Have A Chance
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are a good team currently sitting in the second seed in the NFC, but they have too many holes to put them in the contenders’ category. Their offensive line struggles when pressure is coming their way, and the Chargers made it obvious in week 9.
Their defense has also been disappointing during the past month. Green Bay started 2019 with the narrative of a renewed defense, but that didn’t last long. The Packers have the fifth-worst total defense in the NFL, which is crazy for a team with the second-best record in the National Conference.
Seattle Seahawks
Similar to the Packers, the Seahawks record is inflated by a great quarterback. Russell Wilson is leading the race for the MVP award, but the rest of the team has issues all over the place. Other than Tyler Lockett, Wilson doesn’t have a go-to-guy to catch the football.
Seattle’s defense is ninth-worst in the league. Quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, and even the older Matt Schaub have put a lot of yards and points on them. The Seahawks can’t be considered a Super Bowl contender with a defense that surrendered over 400 passing yards to Matt Schaub in 2019.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs should be a massive headache in the playoffs. However, unless their defense gets it together, they will remain a team that’s fantastic on one side of the ball and disappointing on the other.
Kansas City’s defense played great against the Packers and Vikings in the two weeks Mahomes wasn’t on the field, but then, laid an egg against the Titans when he returned. They rely too much on Pat bailing them out. Until they can match the same intensity they showed against Green Bay and Minnesota regularly, the Chiefs can’t be recognized a Super Bowl contender.
Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images
