Seven weeks on NFL action are in the books, and Vegas just released their NFL Week 8 spreads. Let’s take a dive into each matchup, break down the games, and decide which side to bet on.
NFL Week 8 Spreads, Game Picks, Odds, and Over/Under
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (-16.5)
Thursday Night Football is synonymous with bad games, and this should be no exception. The Washington Redskins have a strong case as the second-worst team in football, and they’re going up against one of the hottest teams in the league. After coming out of the gate slow, Kirk Cousins has played like one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the past three weeks.
The Vikings are going to win this, but it might not be by as wide of a margin as you’d expect. Cousins is due for some regression, and he probably won’t have Adam Thielen for this one. When factoring in the shortened practice week, this game could be relatively close.
Pick: Vikings win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 40.5 [Pick: Under]
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-10)
The Cleveland Browns need a get-right game, but that won’t come against the New England Patriots. While New England’s offense is still figuring things out, its’ defense remains one of the elite units in the league. Baker Mayfield is struggling to read the field, and Bill Belichick’s ability to draw up elaborate coverage should render Mayfield mostly ineffective.
As far as New England’s offense goes, it’s never a good idea to bet against Tom Brady. Even at age 42, the six-time Super Bowl champion still has plenty left in his tank. This offense will figure itself out and play up to its potential sooner or later.
Pick: Patriots win, cover spread
Over/Under: 45.5 [Pick: Under]
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan left Sunday’s game with a left ankle injury and is undergoing an MRI to determine the severity of the injury. The team doesn’t believe this to be a serious setback, so let’s make this prediction assuming he’ll be on the field. Last week’s dud was probably an outlier performance, as Atlanta still has the pieces to be one of the best offenses in the league. However, Ryan hasn’t played up to his typical standards throughout the year. Because of this, he hasn’t been able to successfully carry one of the worst defenses in the league.
Seattle should move the ball up and down the field at will. Russell Wilson is playing like the best quarterback in football, last week’s performance notwithstanding. Chris Carson is proving he was no one-year fluke, and Tyler Lockett simply cannot be covered by Atlanta’s secondary. With or without Ryan, take Seattle and the points.
Pick: Seahawks win, cover spread
Over/Under: 54 [Pick: Over]
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)
Something is wrong with the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles entered the offseason with one of the most well-constructed rosters in the league, but Philadelphia hasn’t played up to their talent. Carson Wentz is having a solid season, but the skill position players aren’t carrying their weight and the pass defense cannot stop anything. The Bills, meanwhile, are essentially the AFC’s answer to the Chicago Bears. They have an elite defense, a solid cast of offensive playmakers, and a bottom-five quarterback holding the whole thing back.
At this point in the season, it’s safe to say we were all wrong about the Eagles. This team isn’t anything special, and they’re traveling into one of the most difficult places to play in the league. As long as Josh Allen can take care of the ball and minimize bad decisions, the Bills should come out of this one with a victory.
Pick: Bills win, cover spread
Over/Under: 42.5 [Pick: Under]
Los Angles Chargers at Chicago Bears (-5.5)
The Los Angeles Chargers keep finding new and creative ways to lose football games. After their latest heartbreaking loss, the Chargers head east to take on the Chicago Bears, who are fresh off an embarrassing loss of their own.
Chicago’s defense is still great, but no defense in the world is capable of carrying this sorry excuse for an offense. Mitchell Trubisky should is not a starting-caliber quarterback, and Matt Nagy’s scheme can no longer hide his deficiencies. This is a championship-caliber roster held back at the game’s most important position, and the Chargers are better than their record would indicate. Look for the Chargers to bounce back against this struggling roster.
Pick: Chargers win
Over/Under: 47 [Pick: Under]
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-7)
The Detroit Lions have to be one of the best two-win teams to ever make it into Week 8. The underlying numbers suggest that the Lions are pretty league-average, so they are due for some positive regression to the mean. Matthew Stafford is having a fantastic season, while the defense is playing well in their second year under Matt Patricia.
The defense should have plenty of opportunities to make plays against Daniel Jones. Jones has shown flashes of great play, but he has no pocket presence and simply cannot take care of the ball. Patricia should have a field day testing his elaborate schemes against Jones, and Stafford should have no trouble connecting with Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones.
Pick: Lions win, cover spread
Over/Under: 49 [Pick: Over]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans (-3)
The Tennessee Titans are a walking enigma, and nobody knows what Jameis Winston is going to do on a weekly basis. This is one of the hardest games to predict, but I’m giving the edge to the Buccaneers. Winston threw five interceptions in his last game, so he’s probably due for a clean game. Additionally, Tampa Bay has one of the best run defenses in the league, and the Titans want to be a run-first team. Tennessee will probably stubbornly run the ball into a great defense instead of trying to take advantage of the obvious mismatch through the air.
Pick: Buccaneers win
Over/Under: 46 [Pick: Under]
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Jacoby Brissett keeps getting better on a weekly basis, while the Denver Broncos keep getting worse. Brissett finally has a full set of weapons, and the Colts defense is playing like a collective, cohesive unit. The Broncos, meanwhile, are a sinking ship who could very well trade away all their good assets by the time this game rolls around. Take the Colts and the points.
Pick: Colts win, cover spread
Over/Under: 43.5 [Pick: Over]
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Rams (-12.5)
The Los Angeles Rams haven’t looked like themselves this year, but they’re still capable of beating up on bad teams. The Rams shut down a powerful Atlanta Falcons offense while moving up and down the field effortlessly against their subpar defense. Cincinnati’s defense is just as bad as Atlanta’s, but the offense is significantly worse. Andy Dalton isn’t good enough to carry an offense which features Tyler Boyd and nothing else worth mentioning. Look for the Rams to win this one in blowout fashion.
Pick: Rams win, cover spread
Over/Under: 47 [Pick: Under]
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)
The Arizona Cardinals are hitting their stride under head coach Kliff Kingsbury, but they’re not quite ready for this. After an uninspiring first few weeks, Teddy Bridgewater is starting to look like a top 15-20 quarterback. He has what it takes to make the Arizona Cardinals defense look bad and should put up a good amount of points in this matchup. The Cardinals, meanwhile, need to take down a solid Saints defense. They should keep it close, but ultimately the Saints should prevail again.
Pick: Saints win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 54 [Pick: Over]
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)
The New York Jets are a significantly better team than their record would suggest. You can’t really take any of the Jets season-long numbers at face value when Sam Darnold only has one truly healthy game under his belt. In his lone healthy outing, Darnold completed 23 of 32 passes for 338 yards, two touchdowns and one interception against a solid Dallas Cowboys defense. He very well could struggle against New England, but he’s proven capable of taking down average defenses.
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense isn’t anything special without Jalen Ramsey around. Darnold should find success through the air, and Gardner Minshew isn’t ready to go blow for blow in a shootout. Don’t be surprised if the Jets pull off the upset in this one.
Pick: Jets win
Over/Under: 41 [Pick: Over]
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-6)
Here’s my biggest upset of the week: the Carolina Panthers are going to beat the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are undefeated thanks to a high-powered defense, but the offense leaves a lot to be desired. Jimmy Garoppolo simply cannot recapture his 2017 form and has played like a below-average quarterback for most of the season. Kyle Allen is objectively the better quarterback in this matchup, and the Panthers have a strong, underrated defense. Given an extra week to prepare, the Panthers should hand the 49ers their first loss of the season.
Pick: Panthers win
Over/Under: 42.5 [Pick: Under]
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-7)
The Oakland Raiders are more competitive than most expected, but they’re not quite on Houston’s level. Derek Carr is having a fine season by his standards, but the defense isn’t ready to slow down an elite offense. Houston’s offense might not be the best in the league, but it’s a top-10 unit when Deshaun Watson is at his best. Even with Will Fuller questionable with a hamstring injury, the Texans should win this one comfortably.
Pick: Texans win, cover spread
Over/Under: 51 [Pick: Under]
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs
Does Vegas know that Patrick Mahomes is injured? Andy Reid is one of the best offensive coaches in the league and is a master at scheming up open throws. This offense will still function without Mahomes, but Matt Moore doesn’t have the ability to make this a top-five unit. The Packers, meanwhile, have their best defense in a decade and Aaron Rodgers finally looks comfortable in this offense. The Packers should blow the Chiefs out of the water in this one.
Pick: Packers win, cover spread
Over/Under: 51 [Pick: Under]
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-16.5)
The Dolphins are still the worst team in the league, but they’ve managed to look competitive in each of the past two games. Ryan Fitzpatrick has the ability to go supernova each and every week, even if he normally is a below-average passer. The Steelers have a great defense, but they have too many questions on the offensive side of the ball. Pittsburgh is going to send out either Mason Rudolph or Devlin Hodges, and neither quarterback inspires that much confidence. The Dolphins will keep the tank alive, but they’ll keep it relatively close in the process.
Pick: Steelers win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 43 [Pick: Under]
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