Marlon Mack is one of the early stars of 2019, but an ankle injury could force him to miss Week 5’s matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. Mack isn’t officially out for Sunday night’s game, but there’s a very real chance he’s going to miss the contest. If he does, the Colts are going to roll with Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines. Let’s break down what to expect from both players if Mack ends up missing Week 5.
Fantasy Football: Jordan Wilkins, Nyheim Hines Outlook Without Marlon Mack
Jordan Wilkins
At first glance, Wilkins appears to be the player with the most to gain from Mack’s absence. Wilkins is a better pure runner than Hines, and the Colts are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. The Colts run the ball just over 45% of the time, which is the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. Mack saw most of these carries, as the third-year back currently ranks seventh in carries and fifth in rushing yards through four weeks. Wilkins is going to have a fantastic opportunity with Mack out of the way, as he’d presumably take the majority of the early-down carries.
Wilkins isn’t the most talented player in the world, but that doesn’t really matter for fantasy football. Rushing production has more to do with the opportunity, blocking, and opponent than it does the actual running back. We’ve already established Wilkins has the opportunity, but he should also have good blocking and a favorable matchup.
According to Football Outsiders, the Colts currently have the 22nd-best run-blocking offensive line, which isn’t that great. However, while Indianapolis might not excel at creating wide-open running lanes, they have the ability to win at the point of attack and hold their ground in the trenches. Football Outsiders also ranks Indianapolis as the seventh-best power run-blocking team, and this blocking fits Wilkins’ strengths. Wilkins isn’t the type of player who can break off a huge gain, but he’s good at picking up what the offensive line gives him. As far as this matchup’s concerned, the Colts offensive line is easily good enough to give him enough blocking to be productive.
Adding to Wilkins’ fortune is that the Chiefs are absolutely atrocious against the run. Through four weeks, Kansas City ranks 31st in rush defense DVOA. You don’t need to be Alvin Kamara to pick up yardage on the ground. The Colts want to run the ball, and they have the talent to win in the trenches. Just about everything looks good for Wilkins, but there is one factor keeping him from being an auto-start.
Nyheim Hines
The Colts might want to run against the Chiefs, but they’re not going to be able to do that for an entire game. Kansas City has the best offense in the league, and no defense is capable of completely stopping this talented unit. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in football and Andy Reid is one of the best offensive minds in NFL history. Putting these two together is simply unfair, as the duo has destroyed NFL defenses since the start of 2018.
If the Colts want to win this game, they’re going to need to throw the ball to keep up with Mahomes. Wilkins offers nothing as a pass-catcher, which means Nyheim Hines is going to see a lot of playing time. While Hines doesn’t offer much as a runner, he could be one of the Colts best options in the passing game.
T.Y. Hilton suffered a hip injury in Week 3 and is questionable for Sunday night’s matchup. Second-round rookie Parris Campbell is banged up, and Devin Funchess broke his collarbone in Week 1. Outside of Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle, Jacoby Brissett doesn’t have a single reliable weapon in the passing game. Hines is probably going to see a lot of targets, making him a serious threat in PPR leagues.
Final Verdict
Both Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines are going to have fantasy value if Marlon Mack cannot go in Week 5. However, if you have to pick one, go with Nyheim Hines. At the end of the day, his pass-catching prowess gives him a safer floor and a higher upside than Wilkins’ one-dimensional play style. Garbage time or not, the Colts will have to throw the ball, and Hines is one of the best healthy pass-catchers on the roster.
That’s not to say that Wilkins won’t have any fantasy value. The Colts will probably try to establish the run early in the contest, and the Chiefs are one of the worst in the league at stopping the run. Wilkins should find success on the ground and might even find his way into the endzone before this game turns into a shootout. Of course, all of this goes out the window if Mack suits up for Week 5. However, if he doesn’t, look for Hines to give you RB2 production in PPR formats and expect flex-caliber play from Wilkins.
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