The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers kick off the 2019 season tonight, and with it comes the fantasy football season. David Montgomery is one of the most interesting players in fantasy, as the rookie has fantastic potential in Chicago’s offense. However, sometimes rookies struggle out of the gate and need to earn their playing time. Given the uncertainties around Montgomery’s inexperience, should you start him in Week One or wait and see how Chicago uses him?
Fantasy Football: Setting Expectations for David Montgomery in Week One
Even though he’s a rookie, it’s safe to say that David Montgomery is the best all-around back on the Chicago Bears. Chicago hardly had any draft capital, yet they traded up to select Montgomery in the third round. That investment appears to have paid off, as Montgomery looked like a star in the preseason.
The coaching staff is clearly infatuated with Montgomery’s ability. Head coach Matt Nagy said that Montgomery is “a first-round talent” and that he’s played above expectations so far. Bryan Perez, a beat reporter for NBC Sports Chicago, notes that Montgomery has the “best chance” to lead the backfield in total touches.
This assessment makes sense, based on Chicago’s personnel moves. Tarik Cohen is one of the better receiving backs in the NFL, but he leaves something to be desired as a runner. Basically, he’s the NFC’s answer to James White. Mike Davis, meanwhile, is a jack of all trades yet a master of none. He can do a little bit of everything, but he can’t do anything at a high level. Truthfully, he’s nothing more than a backup. David Montgomery should have every chance to start, but how will Matt Nagy use his rookie?
Predicting Matt Nagy’s Usage
Matt Nagy and the Chicago Bears desperately want to use one feature back. Last season, the Bears tried to use Jordan Howard in a three-down role, but it didn’t work out. Howard simply isn’t a receiving threat, and using Howard was akin to putting a square peg in a round hole. Cohen and Howard split work for the majority of the season, but Jordan Howard was the star early in the year. Over the first three weeks of the season, Howard recorded 53 carries for 178 yards to go along with 10 receptions for 78 yards. Howard was wildly inefficient, but he saw an ideal workload for fantasy.
Montgomery probably won’t see THAT type of a workload, but he won’t be far off. If Matt Nagy felt comfortable using a committee approach, then he wouldn’t have used his only top-100 pick in the draft on a three-down running back. If Montgomery can actually be efficient with a similar workload, he’s guaranteed to give you at least an RB2 performance. Montgomery’s going to see the majority of the work, with Cohen and Davis coming on whenever Montgomery needs a breather.
David Montgomery also has a favorable matchup in Week One. The Green Bay Packers are annually a subpar defense, and Montgomery should be able to capitalize on the opportunity. In fairness, the Packers added quite a few pieces to the defensive side of the ball. The defense could improve, but there’s a lot of turnover. Defense is all about communication, and it might take a few weeks before a defense with this many moving parts is able to function like a well-oiled machine.
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