Two running backs have ADPs late in the draft, Matt Breida and Darwin Thompson. Thompson has been getting hype as the high-upside, new player in one of the best offenses in the league with the Kansas City Chiefs. Breida is a name that came out of nowhere last season after the San Francisco 49ers went through a few different running backs. Though this season Breida’s role is questionable, he has a much better shot at putting up points compared to Thompson.
Fantasy Football: Draft Matt Breida Over Darwin Thompson
Both Could Be in Timeshare Situations
Now, it is no secret that both Thompson and Breida will be in timeshare situations. The 49ers signed Tevin Coleman, who head coach Kyle Shanahan worked with while he was the offensive coordinator with the Atlanta Falcons. Jerick McKinnon was also expected to be in the mix, but he just went to Injured Reserve, so will miss at least a portion of the season.
For the Chiefs, Darwin Thompson at least starts the season behind Damien Williams, who took over the starting job late last season. The team also has Darrell Williams and Carlos Hyde on the roster (for now). Though Thompson has been getting hype, he is a long way from securing the starting role, let alone any real playing time.
Breida Has a More Carved Out Role
Breida gets the edge here because his backfield situation is at least a lot more clear. He started 13 games for the 49ers last season and looked good in most of them. Breida boasted a 5.3 yards-per-carry average and had four games with over 100 yards from scrimmage.
Some of his weaknesses were his availability and touchdown output. Breida seemed to be on the injury report every single week and left multiple games with injuries. However, he only ended up missing two games on the year. This was good enough for the RB25 spot in standard leagues. While it is nothing spectacular, it is definitely better than the RB38 spot he is falling to on ESPN’s rankings.
The fear is that he has to compete with Coleman. However, Coleman was at his best when he operated as Devonta Freeman’s 1B in Atlanta. Now with McKinnon out of the picture, at least for now, it looks like Breida will come in as the 1A, with Coleman complimenting him.
Thompson Might Not Even See the Field
With all the preseason noise starting to settle, the death of Williams for the Kansas City Chiefs may have been overblown. Yes, Williams never had more than 200 yards rushing in a season before last year, and is in his sixth season. But, he looked like a perfect fit in the Chiefs offense last year and performed extremely well. Undoubtedly, the passing power of the offense helps, but at this point, he is the incumbent and would have to really flame out to lose the starting job.
This is obvious by his preseason production. He only got one rushing attempt. Just one. Kansas City is obviously pretty comfortable with what he can do. He did get three catches though, one of which he took for a 62-yard touchdown. Thompson got some extended action, getting 12 carries for 60 yards, and catching three passes for 38 yards.
Darwin Thompson has looked good, undoubtedly, but it is tough to get a true gauge of just how productive players are from preseason action. Too often preseason leaders don’t even make teams. Last season’s preseason rushing leader, Chris Warren hasn’t even played an NFL down. Nick Brosette was this year’s preseason rushing leader, but he will likely be buried on the New England Patriots roster.
ADP and Outlook
The final decision on who to select of the two backs could come down to what style a person favors. Breida has much less upside, with the odds of him putting up a better than top-20 finish very unlikely. Thompson is more for the risk-reward players. Many are calling him the prototypical Andy Reid back. If Williams goes down, even for a game, Thompson just might steal that role from him completely. And in that offense, the sky is the limit.
But a player is only as good as his output, especially in fantasy football. Breida is in an offense that is much improved from last season as long as quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo stays healthy. Shanahan now how two reliable running backs to run a system similar to how he did with the Falcons. Weighing the risk and reward, Breida is the back to draft this season.
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