After months of ongoing negotiations, the Dallas Cowboys finally struck a deal with one of their big impending free agents. Linebacker Jaylon Smith is sticking around after signing a five-year, $65 million contract. While this wasn’t the extension everyone was expecting, it’s still a great move for Smith and the Cowboys as a franchise. This deal allows Smith to get an early payday while giving Dallas a young, elite linebacker for a below-market price.
Jaylon Smith Extension a Perfect Deal for Both Sides
Had Smith hit the open market, there is no doubt that he would have received more than $13 million per year. Last year, Smith showed that he still has the skills to be one of the best linebackers in all of football. Smith, of course, suffered a devastating knee injury in college and wasn’t himself until 2018. During his first truly healthy season, the Notre Dame product recorded 121 tackles, six tackles-for-loss, six quarterback hits, and four sacks while starting in all 16 games. Stats don’t tell the whole picture with linebackers, but Smith’s 84.4 Pro Football Focus grade shows how dominant he truly was.
Some people think that linebackers don’t matter as much in today’s pass-happy NFL. That is true to some extent, as one-dimensional run-stuffers are a way of the past. However, linebackers that have the ability to play both the run and the pass have never been more valuable. Offenses are getting more and more creative and incorporating their tight ends and running backs into the passing game. Run-first linebackers get exploited in coverage, but Smith has the ability to cover running backs, tight ends, and rush the passer. He’s a true do-everything player who deserves every penny on his new extension.
Thanks to advanced analytics, we are able to quantify an approximate value associated with a certain player. According to Kevin Cole of Pro Football Focus, Smith is worth approximately $15-17 million per season based on his player grade and historical comparisons. This means that the Cowboys are getting Smith for pennies on the dollar, and the value only gets better over the life of the contract. With the salary cap increasing on an annual basis, it’s going to cost more and more to get players like Smith. The Cowboys locked up their star on a long-term, team-friendly deal.
Jaylon Smith signs a 5-yr, $65M ($13M APY) extension. Value estimates for the next two years using @PFF's WAR metric for comparable historical players puts his free-agent price at $15-17M APY.
Top-4 comps: pic.twitter.com/Wtv3DUJkPr
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) August 20, 2019
Why It Helps Smith
Nobody knows how quickly football can go away more than Jaylon Smith. Back in college, the two-time All-American tore his ACL and MCL during the Fiesta Bowl, shattering his draft status. Smith would’ve been a first-round pick, but his injury caused him to fall into the second round. Even with his plummet, analysts around the league felt the Cowboys took a major risk selecting him as early as they did.
That risk obviously paid off for the Cowboys, but this draft plummet caused Smith to miss out on quite a bit of guaranteed money. Were it not for the injury, Smith probably would have been a top-15 pick. 2016’s actual 15th overall pick, Corey Clement, received a four-year, $11.65 million contract. Smith, by comparison, signed for four-year, $6.49 million. The injury cost him at least $5 million, and possibly more if he would have gone earlier in the draft.
Smith was on pace to earn a record-setting contract in free agency. However, Smith is all-too-familiar with the financial implications of serious injuries. Smith gets financial security now, while the Cowboys get an elite talent at a below-market price. Everybody wins.
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