With the NFL off-season in full swing, it’s time to focus on the upcoming fantasy football season. We’ve already covered wide receiver and running back rankings, so let’s do some fantasy football quarterback rankings. The NFL has more capable passers than ever before, which means that it’s easier than ever to find a QB1 in fantasy.
Smart fantasy players know to build running back and wide receiver depth early in the draft and grab a quarterback in the later rounds. Because of this, the average draft position has been factored into these rankings. Note that this is not a list of projected finishes, but rather who gives you the best value. My projected overall rankings, as well as the players’ respective average draft position, have been included in parenthesis.
Fantasy Football Draft Headquarters
Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings: Finding the Best Values
Tier One: Safe Value Picks
- Josh Allen (11) (ADP: 11.08) [Player Profile]
- Dak Prescott (13) (ADP 12.04)
- Jameis Winston (9) (ADP: 10.07)
- Mitchell Trubisky (17) (ADP: 13.02)
- Ben Roethlisberger (14) (ADP: 10.07)
- Jared Goff (12) (ADP: 9.02)
- Kirk Cousins (21) (ADP: 12.03)
Fantasy Football owners would do themselves a favor by targeting Josh Allen and Dak Prescott in the later rounds. Allen was the QB1 over the final six weeks of 2018 and has an improved supporting cast. These new weapons combined with his rushing ability make him a week-in, week-out starter. Likewise, Prescott was the QB9 ever since Amari Cooper joined the Cowboys. With a creative play caller in Kellen Moore, Prescott should be able to duplicate his strong end of the year.
Jameis Winston isn’t a good NFL quarterback, but he’s fantastic for fantasy. Tampa Bay has great wide receivers, a pass-happy coach, no running backs, and no defense. This bodes well for Winston giving you strong fantasy performances on a consistent basis. Ben Roethlisberger lost Antonio Brown but still has Juju Smith-Schuster and a top offensive line. He’ll be fine. The jury’s still out on Mitchell Trubisky, but his running ability gives him a safe floor and a second year in an offense can only make him better.
Jared Goff had an atrocious end to the season but should bounce back to some extent in 2019. Kirk Cousins can put up decent numbers and can serve as an adequate streamer.
Tier Two: Risky Value Picks
8. Cam Newton (15) (ADP: 9.04)
9. Kyler Murray (16) (ADP: 9.07)
10. Lamar Jackson (20) (ADP: 12.03) [Player Profile]
11. Matthew Stafford (23) (ADP: 14.03)
12. Derek Carr (25) (ADP: 14.03)
13. Jimmy Garoppolo (24) (ADP: 11.07)
These players aren’t the safest options in the world, but they offer decent upside and are essentially free. Given the nature of quarterback position, you can afford to take a late-round flyer on a player like this. If it works out, you got a starter for pennies on the dollar. If it doesn’t, you just find an Andy Dalton level quarterback on the waiver wire.
Cam Newton and Kyler Murray both have a chance to outplay their rankings if they can overcome injuries and inexperience, respectively. Lamar Jackson will always have value as a rusher, but don’t expect 2018’s production to be the norm. Jackson won’t survive a full season with that heavy a rushing workload, so Baltimore will want him to throw the ball more often. As of now, it’s anyone’s guess if Jackson is up for that task. Matthew Stafford was a solid fantasy quarterback before last season. Hopefully, a new offensive coordinator can take advantage of his arm talent, even if they are trying to be a run-first offense.
Derek Carr was the QB10 the last time he kept an offensive coordinator for more than one season. With Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams, Carr has a chance to be a low-end starting fantasy option. Jimmy Garoppolo cannot stay healthy but looks good when he’s actually on the field. With Kyle Shanahan calling the shots, Garoppolo should be fantasy relevant as long as he’s playing.
Tier Three: The Price is Wrong
14. Patrick Mahomes (1) (ADP: 2.11) [Player Profile]
15. Andrew Luck (2) (ADP: 4.05) [Player Profile]
16. Aaron Rodgers (3) (ADP: 4.11) [Player Profile]
17. Deshaun Watson (4) (ADP: 5.10) [Player Profile]
18. Carson Wentz (5) (ADP: 7.10)
19. Baker Mayfield (6) (ADP: 5.12)
20. Matt Ryan (7) (ADP: 6.06)
21. Drew Brees (8) (ADP: 6.10)
22. Russell Wilson (10) (ADP: 7.04)
23. Tom Brady (18) (ADP: 9.10)
24. Philip Rivers (19) (ADP: 8.03)
Just about all of these quarterbacks should finish ahead of the previously listed passers. However, they won’t be dramatically better, and you’ll be better off passing on these guys to build value at more important positions. Patrick Mahomes was easily the QB1 last year, but he threw touchdowns at an unsustainably-high rate and drafting him would mean passing on guys like Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton, and Adam Thielen.
Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, and Deshaun Watson are about as safe as you can possibly be at quarterback. However, their respective draft positions don’t justify the selection. Carson Wentz is the closest thing to a value in this tier, as he’s finally healthy and in a high-powered offense. The rest are plug-and-play starters, although Russell Wilson is going to come back to Earth after throwing touchdowns at an unsustainable 8.2% clip last year. Seattle still wants to run the ball, and Wilson probably won’t be as efficient in 2018. Philip Rivers is a safe play, but the fact he’s ranked 19th just goes to show how stacked the position is. Don’t draft him in the eighth round. The same logic applies to Tom Brady. Both are capable starters, but neither one should be drafted at their current position.
Note: Andy Dalton is my QB22, but he doesn’t really fall into any of these categories. He’ll be waiting on the waiver wire if something happens to your preferred quarterback.
