It’s the dead part of the NFL season, which means it’s officially time to talk about how long Tom Brady can keep playing. For the past several years, Brady has publicly stated that he wants to play into his age-45 season. As it is, the six-time Super Bowl champion is already in uncharted territory when it comes to career longevity. While Brady is still playing at an elite level, the common narrative is that aging quarterbacks have their production fall off a cliff overnight.
This narrative most recently resonates with Brady’s longtime rival, Peyton Manning. Manning was one of the greats at his position and played at an elite level through his age-38 season. However, Manning struggled in 2015, missing six games at throwing just nine touchdowns to 17 interceptions. From a statistical standpoint, Manning’s fall from grace happened almost instantly. However, Manning demonstrated several warning signs in the 2013 and 2014 seasons that his career might be near the end. Brady has demonstrated no such signs and has every chance to play until his age-45 season.
No End in Sight for Tom Brady
From a physical standpoint, Peyton Manning never fully recovered from his 2011 neck injury. While he remained one of the best quarterbacks in the league, he lost some zip on his throws and couldn’t throw quite as tight a spiral. This really isn’t up for debate, as Manning admitted to this in the leadup to Super Bowl 48.
In order to compensate for the deteriorating arm talent, Manning found a way to win at the before the snap at a ridiculous rate. The fact that he was able to continue to play at an elite level only speaks to his greatness. However, he had a smaller margin for error throughout his Broncos tenure. Eventually, his body deteriorated to a point in which his mind could no longer make up for his underwhelming arm strength.
Tom Brady has no such signs of deterioration. At the age of 40, Brady led the league in air yards en route to winning his third MVP award. While he wasn’t quite as effective with the deep ball in 2018, Brady still showed the ability to push the ball down the field with ideal velocity and touch. Losing Brandin Cooks forced Brady to limit his deep ball attempts, but he still found success when going deep. According to Sharp Football Stats, Brady finished the year with a 100.3 passer rating on deep passes, good for the 10th-best mark in the league.
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The stats show that Brady can still throw deep with the best of them, and the film confirms this analysis. When looking back at Brady’s 2018 season, it’s clear that Brady still has the arm strength to push the ball deep. Whereas Manning needed to rely on his brains alone, Brady has the advantage of using his brain and his strong arm. He’s no Patrick Mahomes from an arm-talent standpoint, but Brady has more than enough deep ball talent to remain an elite player in the league.
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Precision Passing and Avoiding Hits
The ability to throw deep is nice, but it’s not the be-all, end-all in quarterbacking. Maintaining a high level of play involves around reading the defense, throwing accurate passes, and avoiding unnecessary hits. Brady has always been among the best in the league in these categories, and that didn’t change in 2018.
Nobody would ever argue that Brady can’t read a defense, so let’s not waste words on that part of his game. Instead, let’s take a look at his accuracy throughout the season. Judging by the film, it’s clear to see that Brady is still capable of placing the ball wherever he wants it, especially in the short and intermediate parts of the field.
Perhaps the best example of his elite accuracy came during overtime in New England’s playoff victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Brady faced multiple third and long conversions and converted all of them thanks to some remarkable ball placement. Of course, this wasn’t a one-time occurrence. Brady demonstrated throughout the season that he is still one of the more accurate passers in the league.
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Now entering his age-42 season, Brady needs to make sure he avoids as many hits as possible. While he may not be a scrambling threat, Brady ability to feel pressure and avoid the rush remains unmatched. The three-time MVP is adept at avoiding the rush while keeping his eyes downfield and finding the open man. Additionally, Brady knows how to take hits in a way which minimizes bodily strain.
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Tom Brady wasn’t as good in 2018 as he was from 2014 to 2017. However, that four-year stretch of play was arguably the best of his career, and 2018 represented a return to his “normal” level of play. If you gave 2012 Tom Brady the same cast of weapons, he would have produced similar results. Father Time remains undefeated, but Father Time has never battled a foe as tough as Tom Brady. If Brady wants to play three more years, there’s no reason to believe he can’t do it
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