It’s no secret that the New England Patriots are in the market for wide receivers. Wide receiver was arguably the weakest link on New England’s roster, and now Cordarrelle Patterson, Chris Hogan, and Phillip Dorsett are all hitting free agency. The Patriots will need to bring in some fresh blood, and their top target should be Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Adam Humphries.
Humphries first entered the league as an undrafted free agent back in 2015. Spending his entire career in Tampa Bay, Humphries will hit free agency for the first time in his career. Somewhat overshadowed by fellow free agents Golden Tate and Cole Beasley, Humphries would be a fantastic fit in New England’s offense.
Adam Humphries Should Be New England Patriots’ Top Free Agency Wide Receiver Target
Humphries spends the majority of his time in the slot, picking up difficult yards and doing most of his damage in the short passing game. Capable of getting open and racking up yards after the catch, Humphries finished his 2018 season with 76 receptions for 816 yards and five touchdowns. Each statistic was a career-high, and Humphries should only improve in his age-26 season.
While he wasn’t a deep threat, Humphries was an efficient chain mover throughout the 2018 season. According to Pro Football Reference, 49 of Humphries’ 76 receptions went for a first down, including 15 of 20 third- and fourth-down receptions. The 25-year old slot receiver primarily worked the short portion of the field, as 83% of his targets came within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage.
Humphries did all this despite having two quarterbacks who loved to push the ball vertically. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick were second and third in the league, respectively, in intended air yards per attempt. Basically, this means that these two quarterbacks were constantly pushing the ball downfield. Since Humphries is more of an underneath guy, it’s all the more impressive he was able to put up the numbers he did despite having overly aggressive quarterback play.
How Humphries Fits in 2019
Adam Humphries can immediately contribute to the Patriots by taking Danny Amendola’s old role. Julian Edelman is still as good as ever, so Humphries won’t take over as the top option. That said, this offense has shown in the past that it’s capable of having similar players thrive simultaneously. New England didn’t utilize Amendola that much in the regular season, primarily to keep his body healthy for the postseason. However, once January came around, Amendola consistently came up with big performances, and they didn’t come at Edelman’s expense.
Humphries can also serve as a valuable insurance policy should something happen to Edelman. Everyone knows just how important Edelman is to this offense, as his quickness and chain-moving ability powers the offense. New England’s offense averaged just 23.75 points per game in four games without Edelman. By comparison, the Patriots averaged 28.8 points per game with Edelman on the field, including playoffs.
Edelman’s a fantastic player, but he struggles to stay on the field. Throughout his ten-year career, Edelman has only played a full 16-game season twice. With Rob Gronkowski’s fate still up in the air, New England needs to find another dependable receiver now more than ever.
Enter Adam Humphries. While expecting him to immediately step in and take over Edelman’s role is ridiculous, he’s the type of receiver that quarterback Tom Brady loves. From Troy Brown to Wes Welker to Edelman and Amendola, New England has always been a good fit for slot receivers. Humphries can be a good role player with Edelman on the field and a serviceable starter if Edelman misses time.
Adam Humphries Beyond 2019
Of course, signing Humphries would not be a one-year wager. Entering his age-26 season, Humphries will want to sign a long-term deal with the promise of a big role in the offense. Predicting too far down the line could be a dangerous thing, but Humphries could usurp Julian Edelman as New England’s top slot option by 2020.
Edelman is an all-time great in Patriots history, but sentimentality has never stopped Bill Belichick in the past. Edelman will be 34 when he hits free agency, or two years older than Welker when New England moved on from him. It’s always possible Edelman comes back on another discount deal, but if he’s looking for top dollar, he’ll probably have to look elsewhere. Even if he does come back, New England could give him a smaller role as his body might slow down in later years.
The only receiver currently on the roster with a similar skillset is Braxton Berrios. Berrios, while an intriguing prospect, is a sixth-round pick who didn’t show much in the preseason and missed the entire season with an injury. New England can still hope he develops into something, but they shouldn’t bank on it.
Humphries can give short-term value by being New England’s second or third receiver throughout the 2019 season. Should something happen to Edelman, Humphries could step right in and do a serviceable job and filling the void. In the long term, Humphries can be the next great Patriots slot receiver. He’s younger than fellow free agents Golden Tate and Cole Beasley, and New England has no other clear candidates on the roster. This signing makes too much sense not to happen, and the Patriots should go out and make Humphries a Patriot.
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