Week nine is upon us as the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars will be heading to Arrowhead stadium to play the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are rolling, winning three straight. Kansas City did hit a bit of a speed bump last week as both Alex Smith and Spencer Ware left the game with injuries. Andy Reid announced Wednesday that Smith will be inactive Sunday as Nick Foles will start. Spencer Ware has not practiced this week either, so it is likely Charcandrick West will get the majority of the workload Sunday. Despite these injuries, I believe the Chiefs will come away with the win. Here are the keys to victory for week nine.
Kansas City Chiefs Week Nine Keys to Victory
Play Plenty of Zone Defense
Playing zone defense may seem to go against what the Chiefs do well. Bob Sutton loves to play man coverage and press receivers. This week however, a different approach will be necessary. This season the Jaguars offense has seen a significant regression. They’ve gone from being a top ten offense in 2015 to the 25th ranked offense in 2016. This is in part due to the drastic drop in production we have seen from Allen Robinson, who is only averaging 52 yards receiving a game. From the film I watched much of this can be blamed on sloppy route running. Kansas City can take advantage of this by playing zone coverage.
Zone coverage generally provides some cushion for wide receivers. While it often protects a defensive back from getting burned on deep posts, fly, and fade routes, it gives the receivers space for routes underneath. When a receiver is able to turn on a dime, the offense is able to take advantage of that cushion. This is something that is not in Allen Robinson’s toolbox. Too often he his cut step is rounded, which reduces the amount of cushion between him and the defender. This not only results in balls being thrown at his feet but also provides opportunities for aggressive defenders, such as Marcus Peters, to jump the route for a pick.
Last season we saw Robinson tear up defenses when they tried to play man and press coverage. His speed off the line was far superior to anyone guarding him, allowing him to get open for all those deep touchdowns we saw in 2015. This season we are seeing more teams play zone coverage against him, and it’s working.
Don’t Turn the Ball Over
The Jacksonville Jaguars have improved defensively this year. They are currently ranked eighth in pass defense. That’s definitely not something you want to hear when you are about to face them with your second string quarterback. Kansas City needs to place a premium on ball security. The Jaguars have the worst turnover differential in the league with negative eight (13 giveaways to five takeaways). While this wouldn’t be a concern if Alex Smith was starting, it certainly is with Nick Foles. Last season as the starting quarterback for the St. Louis Rams, Foles actually had more interceptions that touchdowns. We saw Sunday that Foles is not afraid to throw the ball downfield. While that worked out great last week you also have to keep in mind that it was against the Colts defense. This Jacksonville secondary will not be as easy to pick apart. If Foles can play mistake free football and allow the Chiefs defense to generate some takeaways, they’ll no doubt get the win.
Run the Ball
Now while the Jaguars secondary may be a good unit, they’re run defense has been sub-par. Currently, Jacksonville is ranked 21st in rushing defense. The Chiefs should have no problem moving the ball on the ground against them even though Spencer Ware will likely be inactive Sunday. In 2015 we saw that Charcandrick West can handle the lion share of the workload and be productive. In games where West received 15 carries or more, he averaged 4.37 yards per carry. He also is a solid pass-catcher out of the backfield. So while the Chiefs will miss Ware, it is not a drop off that would warrant a change to the Chiefs style of play.
Conclusion
Sunday, expect the Chiefs to come away with the victory. With how much the Jaguars turn the ball over and the Chiefs ability to run the ball, Kansas City should be fine. The real wild card is Nick Foles. Will he perform similar to the way he did last week in Indianapolis, or go back to the Nick Foles we saw in a Rams uniform? We’ll just have to hold our breath and wait for Sunday.
