While he hasn’t been an outright bust, Detroit Lions wide receiver Marvin Jones has fallen short of expectations in 2018. Through six games, Jones has recorded just 19 receptions for 270 yards and three touchdowns. While these numbers aren’t terrible by any means, they’re significantly worse than what fantasy owners thought they would get out of Jones. The third-year Lion is currently 45th-ranked wide receiver by traditional scoring, a far cry from what he’s capable of being.
So what should fantasy owners do? Jones is far too good to cut, so that’s not an option. The only two choices are to hold him and hope for a bounce back or shop him and hope name recognition can get you a good player.
Fantasy Football: Marvin Jones Stuck In A Bad Situation
As previously mentioned, Jones has struggled throughout the 2018 season. Unfortunately, this slow start doesn’t look like it will be going away any time soon. His current situation is a fantasy nightmare which will continue to limit how productive he can be.
For one, the Detroit offense simply has too many mouths to feed. Jones has yet to see double-digit targets on the season and has been targeted just eight times over the past two games. It’s hard to put up any sort of production with such limited opportunities, and it’s hard to see that situation changing any time soon.
The Lions are stacked at wide receiver with Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay. While Tate and Jones can easily coexist on an offense, Golladay poses a much bigger threat to Jones’ value. So far on the season, Golladay has 29 receptions for 465 yards and three touchdowns. While Jones has the slightly higher snap percentage (92.50% to 87.75%), Golladay has been significantly more productive. The Lions should reward Golladay’s production with more opportunities, which means fewer chances for Jones.
Golladay isn’t the only player eating into Jones’ productivity. For the first time in forever, the Detroit Lions actually have a strong running game. Second-round rookie Kerryon Johnson has recorded 444 yards and a touchdown on 69 carries through six games, giving the Lions a dependable rushing attack for the first time since 2013.
Because of this, quarterback Matthew Stafford isn’t throwing the ball as much. While Stafford is on pace to attempt 568 passes, that number is inflated by the combined 99 pass attempts he threw in the first two games of the season. In his past four games, Stafford has attempted just 114 passes. If you extrapolate this four-game sample over an entire season, Stafford would throw just 456 passes over a 16-game sample. Since 2011, Stafford is averaging 625 pass attempts per season. Thanks to Johnson, Stafford isn’t throwing the ball as much, which means Jones’ volume is naturally decreasing.
Rough Roads Ahead
Right now, Jones needs to overcome both Golladay and a successful running game to become a fantasy superstar again. While that in itself is an uphill battle, the upcoming schedule makes this a nearly impossible task for Jones.
Jones faces off against the Seattle Seahawks, Chicago Bears (twice), Minnesota Vikings, and Carolina Panthers over the next five weeks. Each team boasts a strong defense which could very easily give Jones fits.
Chicago and Seattle are both top-five defenses in DVOA heading into Week Eight. While the Vikings and Panthers don’t rank quite as high in Football Outsiders’ ranks, they’re both good at limiting wide receiver production. Minnesota averages 20.1 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position (sixth in the league) while Carolina averages 24.4 (12th).
Even if Jones was the clear top receiver, his production would probably dip in the coming weeks. Now that he’s arguably the third or fourth option in the Lions passing game, he’s completely unstartable for the next five weeks.
What To Do With Jones
Marvin Jones has been somewhat phased out of the offense this season, and that’s not likely to change any time soon. Thanks to the emergence of Kenny Golladay and Kerryon Johnson, Jones has yet to see double-digit targets in a game and has been targeted just eight times over the past two games. Matthew Stafford is throwing the ball less often, and Golladay is more effective with his targets than Jones is.
Additionally, Jones faces unfavorable matchups in each of the next five weeks. Chicago, Seattle, Minnesota, and Carolina are all great at limiting wide receiver production. Quite frankly, Jones is facing an uphill battle to be fantasy relevant for the remainder of the season.
Fortunately, not many people league-wide have noticed this. If you’re a Jones owner, start shopping him around and see what you can get. Name recognition alone could get you a decent player in return for Jones’ services.
Fantasy championships are won and lost by trading away underwhelming players before their shortcomings become national news. Jones isn’t a startable player right now, but you could probably get a startable player for his services. It’s hard to give up on a player as talented as Jones, but there are too many factors working against him.
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