One week after facing an elite offense and a non-existent defense, the New England Patriots face a vastly different opponent in the Chicago Bears. Chicago’s offense was one of the worst in the league through three weeks, but they’ve turned in on in their past two games. Since Week Four, Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky has completed 41 of 57 passes for 670 yards, nine touchdowns, and just one interception. It’ll be up to Stephon Gilmore and his shutdown coverage to slow down the suddenly successful Bears offense.
Stephon Gilmore Key to Beating Chicago Bears Offense
Before looking at what the Patriots need to do to stop the Bears offense, let’s break down their recent success. Through the first three weeks of the season, Mitch Trubisky was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. The former second-overall pick started his season completing 69% of his passes for 582 yards (5.5 yards per attempt) to go along with two touchdowns and three interceptions. His 76.8 passer rating ranked 28th among quarterbacks with at least 20 pass attempts.
However, something clicked over his past two games. Trubisky’s 143.3 passer rating in his past two games is the best in the league, leading second-place Matt Ryan by a staggering 23.3 points. How has Trubisky been putting up these great numbers, and how can the Patriots make Trubisky look like his early-season self?
What Makes Trubisky Good
Surprisingly, Trubisky’s recent success has correlated with him abandoning his presumed top wide receiver. In the first three weeks, Trubisky targeted Allen Robinson 27% of the time and Taylor Gabriel 21% of the time. Neither player did much with these opportunities, as Trubisky had just a 48 passer rating when targeting Robinson and a 76 passer rating when targeting Gabriel.
While Gabriel has still seen 21% of Trubisky’s passes, there’s been a new leading receiver in Chicago. Running back Tarik Cohen has seen 30% of targets in the past two weeks, recording 14 receptions for 211 yards and one touchdown.
Along with Cohen’s emergence, Taylor Gabriel has turned up his game. Over the past two weeks, the wide receiver has recorded 12 receptions on 12 targets for 214 yards and two touchdowns. Over this two-game stretch, Gabriel has a perfect 158.3 passer rating when targeted.
Trubisky has built this success by actually pushing the ball downfield. Through the first three weeks of the season, Trubisky threw just 16% of his passes to the deep part of the field (15+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage). However, since Week Four, 34% of Trubisky’s passes have gone 15 yards past the line of scrimmage. He favors the deep left sideline, as 20% of his passes since Week Four have gone in that direction.
Trubisky’s newfound aggressiveness has paid dividends for the second-year quarterback. Since Week Four, Trubisky has a 138 passer rating on throws to the deep left. He also has a 149 passer rating on throws to the deep right, but he’s only attempted three passes to that portion of the field. He clearly favors the left side of the field, and that’s what the Patriots need to take away.
How To Stop Chicago’s Wide Receivers
Priority number one in the passing game needs to be stopping Taylor Gabriel. As previously mentioned, Gabriel has been on fire the last two games and Trubisky is most successful when throwing to his left. Because of this, it should come as no surprise that Cohen has received 69% of his targets on the left side of the field since Week Four. Of those targets, Gabriel has an 87.5% success rate – meaning that he always does enough for his offense to be in a good position for the next play.
This is where Stephon Gilmore comes in. Gilmore is the Patriots best cornerback and has continued his 2018 where his 2017 left off. Pro Football Focus currently has Gilmore ranked as the 10th-best cornerback in football, so he should be capable of shadowing and slowing down Gabriel.
Doing this will, of course, make Trubisky turn to Allen Robinson. Fortunately, Jason McCourty should be up to the task. According to PFF, McCourty is even better than Gilmore, ranking in as the sixth-best cornerback in the league. While his play is due to regress, he’s still capable of covering Robinson.
So far, Robinson hasn’t looked 100% after tearing his ACL in 2017. Without his elite speed, Robinson mainly relies on his size to win matchups. McCourty isn’t afraid to play tough, so he should be a good isolated matchup for Robinson.
How To Stop Cohen
Stopping Cohen is a much harder task. The Patriots have struggled against running backs in the passing game for the past few seasons, and that hasn’t changed in 2018. Per Football Outsiders, the Patriots pass defense currently ranks 16th against running backs, allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game to the position (60.2).
It will take more than one or two players to slow Cohen down. Most likely, the Patriots will incorporate zone coverage with their linebackers and a safety to try to take Cohen away. While this won’t eliminate Cohen entirely, it should limit the running back’s overall impact.
Don’t look for it to happen, but the Patriots could go crazy and utilize linebacker Nicholas Grisby. Grisby is primarily a special teamer but is probably the most athletic linebacker the Patriots have. His 4.51 40-yard dash and 4.27 20-yard shuttle are pretty good for a linebacker, and based on raw athleticism alone, he has the skills to occasionally match up with Cohen. However, Grisby is a raw player who lacks the technique and poise to cover Cohen. While it’s an interesting idea, it would almost certainly end in disaster.
Last Word on Stopping Mitch Trubisky, Bears Passing Attack
Mitch Trubisky has improved tremendously over the past two weeks, which isn’t ideal for New England. His improvement is mostly due to a newfound aggressiveness to push the ball downfield, primarily to Taylor Gabriel. Additionally, the Bears have phased Allen Robinson out of the passing game, replacing his deep targets with quick passes to running back Tarik Cohen.
The Patriots have the players to take away Gabriel, and that should be their first priority. Stephon Gilmore should follow Gabriel around the formation whenever possible, as he’s the Patriots best all-around corner. Jason McCourty is more than capable of going up against a not-quite-100% version of Allen Robinson, and Jonathan Jones has proven worthy of manning the slot week in and week out.
With the wide receivers out of the way, the Patriots should shift their remaining attention to Tarik Cohen. While New England doesn’t have the players to completely stop Cohen, they do have the ability to slow him down with zone coverage.
Put simply, Tarik Cohen alone will not be able to defeat the Patriots defense. While Chicago may move the ball with Cohen, he can’t outscore the Patriots offense on his own. With the other top receiving options taken away, Mitch Trubisky will look more like the quarterback of the first three weeks of the season. Despite giving up 40 points last week, the Patriots defense should be favored in this matchup.
Final Prediction: Patriots 24, Bears 13
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