After months of waiting, Carolina Panthers rookie running back Jonathon Brooks is set to make his real-life and fantasy football debut in Week 10. Despite missing the entire pre-draft process with an ACL injury, Carolina made Brooks the first running back selected in the 2024 NFL Draft, which speaks to his promise and long-term upside. Every year, one or two players break out at the end of the season and carry teams to fantasy championships. Reliable running backs are hard to find, so will Brooks be that player in 2024?
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Fantasy Football: Jonathon Brooks Rest of Season Outlook
Jonathon Brooks the Player
Before we discuss what Jonathon Brooks can do in your fantasy football lineup, we must first discuss the type of player he is. After spending the first two years of his collegiate career behind superstar Bijan Robinson and future draft pick Roschon Johnson, Brooks finally had a chance to show what he could do in a full-time role in 2023. Appearing in 11 games, the Texas product finished his season with 1,139 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on 187 carries to go along with 25 receptions for 286 yards and one touchdown. While a November ACL injury prematurely ended his season, he quickly became the top running back prospect in an admittedly weak class.
The numbers are impressive, and the film tells a similar story. At his best, Brooks has Pro Bowl potential, but nobody should expect that from Day 1. This should go without saying, but adjusting to life in the NFL is ridiculously difficult, and it’s even harder when you’re coming off a serious injury and missed the entire offseason program. Nobody should start Jonathon Brooks in fantasy this week, but could he pick up some value down the stretch?
The Late-Season Panthers
The Carolina Panthers aren’t the NFL’s top offense by any stretch of the imagination, but there is some value to be had here. First-year General Manager Dan Morgan did a remarkable job of rebuilding the offensive line, as the unit currently ranks at or near the top of every major blocking metric. With Brooks sidelined and Miles Sanders remaining ineffective, former fourth-round pick Chuba Hubbard has dominated the workload and is currently the RB9 on the season. While the lack of backfield competition certainly plays a role in this impressive production, it’s worth noting that Hubbard has made the most of his opportunities.
According to Pro Football Focus, Hubbard and his 75.9 PFF grade currently ranks 22nd out of 65 eligible running backs. Additionally, he ranks 29th in juke rate, seventh in breakaway runs, and 14th in true yards per carry. He’s not prime Barry Sanders, but he is a capable starter who won’t easily cede carries to Jonathon Brooks.
Chuba Hubbard will enter Week 10 as the starting running back as a top-20 play, while Brooks shouldn’t sniff your lineup. However, as the season progresses, Brooks will eat into his 71.1% opportunity share. Brooks has a considerably higher ceiling than Hubbard, but he probably won’t reach it in 2024. While a full-time workload remains unlikely, he should see more work as the season progresses. This means that, barring injury, Chuba Hubbard and Jonathon Brooks will probably split snaps fairly evenly in a subpar offense. This is a recipe for fantasy disaster, as neither player will have the workload to be anything more than a low-ceiling flex play.
This is all speculation, and you should get Jonathon Brooks on your fantasy team in case the rookie surprises. However, chances are, he won’t be anything more than a roster clogger in 2024.
Main Photo: Jim Dedmon – USA Today Sports
