Entering the 2024 season, three running backs reign supreme in the world of fantasy football: Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson. While McCaffrey is the consensus first running back off the board, Hall and Robinson are fighting for the RB2 spot in just about everyone’s running back rankings. While both players should have great seasons and are talented enough to carry your team to a title, Breece Hall is the better pick.
Fantasy football production comes down to three key factors: talent, volume, and situation. While both Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall are in positions to succeed, Hall has slight edges that make him the better pick if both players are on the board.
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Fantasy Football: Draft Breece Hall Over Bijan Robinson
The Volume
Drafting in fantasy football is all about balancing upside and floor. Nobody can argue that Hall and Robinson are both elite talents who could finish as the RB1, but Hall has the safer floor. Volume is king in fantasy football, and we know without any doubt that Breece Hall will be a workhorse back in New York, which isn’t 100% true of Bijan Robinson.
Last year, Breece Hall finished the season with a 68.2% opportunity share while leading all running backs in both targets and receptions while catching passes from the painfully inaccurate Zach Wilson. He was more than just a receiving back, as his 223 carries ranked 14th in the league, an impressive achievement considering New York struggled to sustain drives in 2023. All signs point towards him seeing a similar workload in 2024, as the Jets are effectively running it back this year.
Head coach Robert Saleh will return for at least one more season, and we already know he won’t shy away from using Hall on all three downs. Meanwhile, New York didn’t add significant competition to the backfield. While the Jets selected Braelon Allen in the fourth round, he shouldn’t steal Hall’s work. Allen is a fine replacement for Dalvin Cook, but the rookie isn’t much of a pass-catcher and lacks Hall’s burst as a runner.
Bijan Robinson could earn a workhorse role in 2024, but it’s not a given. Last year, the top-10 pick finished with a relatively unimpressive 52.5% opportunity share, although he finished with the third-most targets at the running back position. He should see an increased role with another year of experience under his belt and Arthur Smith out of town, but there is some risk here. Additionally, while the Jets lack a proven option behind Breece Hall, the Falcons know they have a competent backup to Bijan Robinson. Tyler Allgeier has played like a starting-caliber runner during his two years in the league, and he could eat into Robinson’s snaps throughout the season to keep both runners fresh.
The Situation
Breece Hall has a slight edge over Bijan Robinson in workload, and the two are both elite talents. So, who has the better situation? Quarterback is the most important position in the game, so let’s start there. The Falcons and Jets have arguably the two quarterbacks with the widest range of outcomes in Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers. These one-time division rivals are both aging veterans trying to make a somewhat unprecedented recovery from Achilles injuries. Both players seem to be doing well based on camp reports, but we know those can’t always be trusted. Don’t forget that, last year at this point, Terrace Marshall was ready to break out and Cam Akers had the Rams backfield locked up.
Rodgers and Cousins have the same floor: a washed-up veteran who can’t move the offense. So, who has the higher ceiling? Cousins was playing some of his best football prior to his injury, but the edge has to go to Rodgers here. The four-time MVP might not be the player he once was, but he was still a top-10 quarterback the last time we saw him. It’s not likely, but there is a chance Rodgers reclaims his MVP form as well. Rodgers was done with the Packers in 2022 and couldn’t develop chemistry with Green Bay’s young and inexperienced receivers. We saw something similar happen with Tom Brady in 2019 and he returned to his elite self once he landed in the right situation.
A great quarterback means more scoring opportunities, but a strong offensive line means more rushing lanes. The Jets had one of the worst offensive lines in the league last year, but the organization aggressively fixed that issue throughout the offseason. Maybe they won’t be the 1990s Dallas Cowboys, but guys like John Simpson, Morgan Moses, Tyron Smith, and first-round pick Olu Fashanu will improve the overall unit. The Falcons also have a strong offensive line, but it’s not considerably better or worse than New York’s.
Ultimately, you can’t go wrong with either Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson in the first round. However, if you have to pick between the two, go with the one who has a proven workload and is sharing the field with one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever live.
Main photo: John Jones – USA Today Sports
