Three years ago Bill Belichick made a big splash in free agency on a tight end tandem of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Smith underwhelmed and was eventually traded by the New England Patriots to the Atlanta Falcons. Henry has managed to remain a very consistent piece of an underwhelming offense. Now, three years later in an underwhelming tight end draft class, Henry sits among the top available free agent tight ends. What is the dynasty outlook for Hunter Henry?
2024 Fantasy Football: Hunter Henry Dynasty Outlook
The History
Hunter Henry began his career with the San Diego Chargers for one year before they moved to Los Angeles. Henry showed tremendous promise and upside in his time as a Charger but struggled to remain healthy. He never played a full 16 or 17-game season as a Charger. Including missing the entire 2018 season after tearing his ACL during OTA’s.
For fantasy managers, the injuries were frustrating. However, in three of four seasons as a Charger he averaged over 10 fantasy points per game, including over 45 receptions and 550 yards. This helped him to be a top-ten tight end in fantasy points per game.
Henry then signed in New England, to much excitement based on the historic usage of tight ends in New England. His arrival, unfortunately, also coincided with the arrival of Mac Jones. Henry over three years in New England failed to average over ten points per game and never cracked the top 15 tight ends in fantasy points per game. This despite two seasons playing his first full 17 game slates of his career.
The Situation
With Bill Belichick and most of the offensive staff out in New England, a return to New England seems unlikely for Henry. There is likely a youth movement and new direction that is coming for the Patriots. In two out of three seasons as a Patriot, Henry had an exceptional 14% or better touchdown rate, plus 500 or more receiving yards.
A minor warning, but potentially can be blamed on a declining passing offense, Henry’s receiving yards declined each season with the Patriots. The Patriots passing offense saw a decline of 28 yards per game between 2022 and 2023. Only 180 passing yards per game last season, ranking 28th in the NFL.
Despite heading towards 30, his nose for the end zone would be a major plus for a high octane offense looking to take their red zone offense to another level. He also remains a consistent weapon a team can trust. Three teams that stand out with a need at the tight end position are: the Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans (don’t rule out a Dalton Schultz return) and Seattle Seahawks. Depending on landing spot a late career revival could be in the cards and improve Hunter Henry dynasty outlook.
Current Price
Using KeepTradeCut, a fantasy manager is able to see how the general community is feeling about a specific player thanks to crowd sourcing information. Henry is currently ranked as the TE32. In seven seasons, he has never finished this low in fantasy output! His worst season ended with a 6.1 fantasy point per game output and TE26. His current value is around a mid to late future (2025 or 2026) 3rd rounder. Some players of note around his value: Zay Jones, Gus Edwards and Hendon Hooker.
What to do with Hunter Henry?
Let’s take a look at three different situations you maybe in for fantasy if you are a Hunter Henry manager or considering acquiring Henry.
Rebuilding
Most assets nearly 30 or over 30 aren’t going to be very helpful for a rebuilding roster. Henry is no different and fits this mold. There is zero certainty in expectation for Henry and likely is a teams second or third tight end option. If you are in this situation with Henry on your roster, wait for him to sign with a team and sell, sell, sell. A third in any year to me is great value for Henry. No landing spot is likely to increase his value too much beyond where it is now. It is important to land an asset that helps you in future years to come or a piece that could grow in value in future years.
Middle of the Pack
Oh the middle of the pack, the worst spot to be in fantasy. Mediocrity is something no fan likes to watch in their NFL team. You hate it worse for your fantasy team because you are paying money to lose it and not getting top draft picks to see a future with your roster. Henry does nothing for a middle of the pack team unless your tight end position is that dire. Then there is a whole other discussion to have. Wait for a landing spot and ship him off for a 3rd. Gather assets that you can pair with players to acquire a superior player or move up in your draft.
Contenders
Contenders should be the only ones considering Henry as a viable piece to add or hold. I would personally be reaching out now while the price point is at a low. Henry for a late 3rd/4th or low end player like those around him in value: Darnell Mooney, Tutu Atwell or Zay Jones, would be a smart win now move. He settles in as your tight end 2B or 3 depending on your tight end situation and would be a strong spot start during byes and also matchup dependent with tremendous touchdown upside.
Main Photo Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
