New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara is one of the hardest players to evaluate in the fantasy football landscape. The five-time Pro Bowler has finished as a top-10 running back in five of his six seasons in the league and is basically a living cheat code when he’s at his best. However, Kamara is also entering his age-28 season and will miss the first three games of the season with a suspension. Kamara has one of the widest ranges of outcomes in the league, and trying to figure out where to draft him is no easy task.
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Where to Draft Alvin Kamara In Fantasy Football
How Good Can Kamara Be in 2023?
Obviously, players can only earn fantasy football points when they’re actually on the field, and Kamara’s three-game suspension dramatically puts a cap on his ceiling. Kamara is going to go off the board fairly early in your draft, which means that whichever team ends up selecting him is effectively passing up on a starter for the first three weeks of the season. Now, if Kamara was a league-winning force from Week 4 onwards, that’s a price you’d happily pay. However, the odds of that happening are pretty slim.
From a fantasy football standpoint, Alvin Kamara started to show some serious signs of slowing down last year. The former third-round pick had the worst statistical season of his career, finishing as the RB16 in PPR leagues, and the advanced numbers suggest this down year could be a sign of things to come.
In 2022, Kamara had the highest snap share in the league, fourth-best opportunity share, and seventh-best weighted opportunities. This is the usage that fantasy football managers dream of, yet Kamara was unable to make the most of his situation. A big reason for this is that he simply wasn’t that effective on a per-touch basis. Kamara used to dominate advanced rushing metrics, but last year he was 46th in true yards per carry, 49th in juke rate, 48th in breakaway run rate, and 15th in yards created per touch. While he still has some of his short-area elusiveness, he lost the speed to be a big-play threat.
Kamara is at the age where running backs start to slow down, and the Saints seem to know this. The team added short-yardage extraordinaire Jamaal Williams in free agency and Kendre Miller in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft, and there are reports that the Saints are trying to trade for Jonathan Taylor. Kamara will still be the starter when he comes back (assuming the team can’t get Taylor), but he’s not going to have that same massive workload from last year.
#Saints RB Kendre Miller has the potential to be a standout in the passing game, bearing similarities to his teammate Alvin Kamara. Exciting times ahead for his role in the offense.pic.twitter.com/XTvgIjMHnV
— JOSE ALVARES (@Alvaresjose11) August 21, 2023
Alvin Kamara Fantasy Football Average Draft Position
As of this posting, FantasyPros ADP has Alvin Kamara as the 24th running back off the board, sandwiched right between guys like James Conner, Cam Akers, and Isiah Pacheco. If you need to select a running back at this point in your draft, Kamara is a fine option here. Conner and Akers have clear control of their backfield, but both play in offenses that won’t have too many scoring opportunities. Pacheco, meanwhile, is set to start on the most dangerous offense in football, but his lack of pass-catching ability puts a clear cap on his ceiling. Ultimately, all four of these players should be fine RB2’s when on the field.
However, you should be shooting for higher. Kamara is going off the board right in the middle of the running back dead zone, and instead of drafting a running back, you should just invest in a different position altogether. Darren Waller, Christian Watson, Mike Williams, and Drake London are all going off the board around the same time as Alvin Kamara, and each player has a much higher ceiling and a safer floor for fantasy football.
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Main Photo: Stephen Lew – USA Today Sports
