The Saints need to be better offensively to make their way back into playoff contention. Under Dennis Allen, the team has established a premier defense, but has seriously lacked spark offensively. In addition to having to manage life without Drew Brees, the absence of Michael Thomas over the past few seasons is arguably the biggest reason for the Saints offensive struggles. The status of Thomas in 2023 will remain a mystery until he steps onto the field in Week 1. But while his status as a player remains a question, whichever version of Thomas does show up will be the X-factor of the 2023 Saints offense.
Michael Thomas: The Saints Offensive X-Factor in 2023
The Rise and Fall of Michael Thomas
From 2016-2019, Michael Thomas was firmly on the trajectory of a Hall of Fame career. Shattering multiple league records, his 2019 season was one of the most dominant wide receiver seasons of the modern era. Since 2020, however, things have all gone downhill for the former Offensive Player of the Year. His injuries and the subsequent team drama were well-documented. The Saints were hoping 2022 would mark the return of the old Michael Thomas. For a fleeting moment, Thomas reminded everyone of what he could do, with two fourth-quarter touchdowns in the season opener. Unfortunately, he suffered another injury and did not play again after Week 3.
The Saints Offensive Struggles in 2022
For the most part, 2022 was a disaster of a season for the Saints offense. The group was never able to find a true identity, with a frustrating running game and dull passing attack. While rookies Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed provided rare dynamism as downfield threats, the team had no reliable possession receiver. The idea of a receiver making a contested catch was essentially an afterthought. Drives stalled frequently, and there was no one to bail out the offense on broken plays. Sean Payton’s absence, Injuries on the offensive line, and lack of talent at quarterback certainly didn’t help, but the value Thomas brought to the offense was never made more clear.
Fast forward to 2023, and Thomas has again worked through rehab and remained healthy for the duration of the offseason. After missing the 2021 season, Thomas came into 2022 also in a ramp-up period and had some dominant camp moments. Media and fans bought into the hype, and the hope was real the Saints had their WR1 back. Ultimately, the situation didn’t play out as envisioned.
This time around though, belief seems to be more level. Thomas will need time to get into football shape, as much as fans want the old Thomas right now. The team knows how hard he has worked to get back. He has shown flashes of his old self, but also clear signs of significant rust. Thomas is an individual hell-bent on perfection, and won’t consider himself 100% until every rep is won. With current expectations being more realistic, it becomes easier to paint a picture of what Michael Thomas can bring to the Saints in 2023.
Michael Thomas vs Derwin James pic.twitter.com/CKrXynbTG7
— NOF (@nofnetwork) August 17, 2023
Michael Thomas: The X-Factor of the Saints Offense
The days of Thomas being an alpha, target-hog wide receiver are likely behind him. At age 30, with significant lower body injury history, it would be unfair to expect the level of short-area quickness once seen in Thomas’s game. He never won with speed, but his route physicality and quick feet allowed him to consistently separate. The 2023 version of Thomas may be a far more limited version of the receiver he once was.
With all of the limitations Thomas is dealing with, how could he possibly be the x-factor? Well, 50% of Thomas’ 2019 season would result in a stat line of 75 catches, 860 yards, and five touchdowns. 50%. Therein lies the key for Michael Thomas being the x-factor of the Saints offense. He doesn’t need to be 2019 Thomas. He doesn’t need to put the offense on his back every week.
Thomas still possesses the skillset that was so glaringly absent from last year’s offense. His ability to make contested catches and dominate underneath still offers a ton of value. With Olave expected to take over as WR1, Thomas can thrive in a more limited role, utilized in a way that emphasizes his current skillset. 2023 Thomas perfectly complements the play styles of Olave and Shaheed. The trio have the potential to form one of the league’s most well-rounded units.
Even in his lessened state, Thomas’ presence on the field should still dictate attention from defenses. If teams attempt to lock down the short game for the Saints passing offense, deep shots open up. But as discussed previously, it will be those tough red-zone and 3rd down contested catch situations where Thomas is needed most. Derek Carr will look for a go-to man in these moments as he has done throughout his career with guys like Davante Adams and Darren Waller, and should naturally gravitate to Thomas’ veteran presence.
As the process goes with projecting any player’s seasons, there is going to be a distribution of possibilities for how Thomas’ season plays out. Of course, he may never even get going in the first place, with another season cut short due to injury. Assuming Thomas remains on the field, here are the three ways his season unfolds.
Scenario 1: Thomas is Washed
On one extreme, Thomas looks like a shell of his former self. He just can’t shake off the rust and essentially loses any semblance of the athleticism he once had. He struggles to separate and is limited to a minimal role as a past-his-prime possession receiver. Olave, Shaheed, and Juwan Johnson face massive pressure to step up and lead the passing game.
This might not be the end of the world and those three should still be solid options, but none come with the experience and savvy that Thomas does. In their first season together, it will be tougher for Carr and the young receivers to work through the finer nuances of the passing game, which will likely develop much quicker with a fellow veteran like Thomas. There likely would be some rough moments early on, with miscommunications and drives again stalling out frustratingly early. Ultimately, a significant Michael Thomas decline will be a barrier the Saints offense would need a lot of time to overcome, and would make it almost impossible to achieve any success past the regular season in situations when the team finds itself in shootout situations.
Scenario 2: Thomas Finds the Fountain of Youth
On the other end, Thomas somehow turns back the clock to 2019. The time off over the last few seasons rejuvenates him, as he returns with a vengeance to reclaim his status as an alpha wide receiver. He and Carr quickly form a bond like the one Thomas developed with Drew Brees, and the pair become an unstoppable unit together. Thomas’ presence dictates attention from opposing number one corners, letting Olave and Shaheed feast on their matchups. The passing attack functions as a well-oiled machine and reminds Saints fans of the glory days in the early to mid-2010s. Thomas brings back a unique skillset so desperately missing from the offense and plays seamlessly to the strengths of the other weapons. Combined with another year of good defensive play, the Saints quickly develop into true super bowl contenders.
Scenario 3: Thomas is Rock Solid
Then, right in the middle, is the most probable outcome for a healthy Michael Thomas and the Saints in 2023. He hasn’t fallen off a cliff and lost the ability to catch. Neither has he regained his peak form while pushing for 2,000 yards. He most likely ends up somewhere in between. He provides a steady, middle-of-the-field presence for Carr, wins his share of 50-50 balls, and is an invaluable asset in the development of the younger receivers. All in all, his impact provides tremendous value for the offense, with him and Olave providing one of the league’s best duos at the position. The offense isn’t quite up to the level of the 2011 version but significantly upgraded from last year’s team and is in a prime position to capture the NFC South.
Michael Thomas probably isn’t who he once was. With his unparalleled work ethic, he is going to hold off father time as long as possible. But who he can be heading into this second act of his career remains a mystery. And with the possibility of his season playing out in so many different ways, he might be the one player on offense, a true x-factor of the 2023 Saints offense.
Main Photo: Stephen Lew – USA Today Sports
