Chris Olave is a popular year two breakout selection for fantasy football. At an ADP of WR12, is he in the right spot? His skill set and situation are great but with the talent at the wide receiver position he could find himself on the outside looking in.
Chris Olave 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Historical Data
In 2022 as a rookie Olave put together 72 receptions for 1042 yards and four touchdowns. Given that he did this in only 15 games it’s quite impressive. There are 29 rookies who have put up over 1,000 yards in the history of the NFL. Some notable names from the list include Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, A.J. Brown, and Michael Thomas, you get the idea. Of the players that accomplished 1,000 yards as a rookie, almost every single one went on to have a top 12 fantasy football season later in their career.
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It should be noted he was able to do this in one of the league’s worst offenses. Andy Dalton is an admirable bridge quarterback, but he wasn’t elevating any part of the team. The Saints finished 21st in Points Per Game and Dalton only passed for 2,871 yards. While Olave was on the field he accounted for almost 30% of the teams receiving yards, which is an insane cut of the offense.
Current Situation
For all of the mediocrity of Andy Dalton, is Derek Carr that much of an upgrade? Yards per game Dalton had 205, Derek Carr in the high-flying AFC West playing the Chiefs and Chargers twice each put up 234. Dalton had a QBR of 50.7. The huge upgrade from Carr? 55.5 QBR. Carr is technically an upgrade, but it feels like going from a C- to a C.
At least the Saints didn’t add any major target competition, right? Well, technically they only added A.T. Perry, a sixth-round rookie, Jimmy Graham from retirement, and Foster Moreau. While none of these players will seriously eat into Olave’s target share, a record-holding All-Pro receiver is allegedly healthy. Michael Thomas has dominated targets in this offense in the past, and there’s a chance he comes back again this season.
On the plus side, Olave is entering year two as a receiver. Historically receivers are more likely to break out in their year two season. After finishing as the WR25 as a rookie, if he breaks out anymore he’s going to be a problem.
Current Cost and Season Prediction
As previously stated, Olave is going off the board as the WR12. Even taking into account a small improvement of the offense and a sophomore breakout, isn’t WR12 almost his best-case scenario? Worst case scenario, Carr struggles in New Orleans and doesn’t hyper-target Olave with Thomas back. With that in mind, he is likely priced to high to be worthwhile in fantasy football this season. He will still be a solid player, maybe even a great player, but is unlikely to return on his top 12 WR ADP. Despite being great for dynasty fantasy football, he’s just not a great pick for redraft this season.
Some better players to target in the same range include Devonta Smith or Tee Higgins if looking for a WR, or Jahmyr Gibbs or Najee Harris if looking for running back help.
Main Photo Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
