According to bookmakers Damar Hamlin is nailed on to win the 2023 Comeback Player of the Year. And that would be a very emotional victory. But Hamlin’s comeback doesn’t seem as clear cut as the odds suggest. Hamlin is obviously coming back from a shocking incident that would have been even worse if not for Denny Kellington; but according to Sean McDermott Hamlin is “not practicing”. McDermott continued “but is in the building working” so there’s no guarantee Hamlin will return to the field this season. Christian Eriksen took 259 days to return from a similar incident. But Eriksen is 30lbs lighter than Hamlin and doesn’t play a violent, collision sport. It wouldn’t be a total surprise if the Bills medical team err on the side of caution with Hamlin.
2023 Comeback Player of the Year Candidates
A Different Comeback In Boston – Mac Jones
2022 saw the emergence of Tua and Jalen Hurts rendering Jones Alabama’s forgotten man through no fault of his own. Circumstances have conspired against him, he landed in New England who had one of the worse receiving corps in the AFC in 2021 (only Kendrick Bourne caught more than 67% of his targets). And in 2022 the Patriots decided to let their former defensive coordinator call plays for Jones. The Patriots still went to the playoffs in Jones’ rookie year after he guided them to 10 wins. Jones threw 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 2021. Last season those numbers fell, largely because he only started 14 games. He threw 14 touchdowns, rushed for one and threw 11 interceptions. The Patriots receivers were much better last season though, three of the seven who played caught more than 67% of their targets.
Bill O’Brien has taken over as offensive coordinator in Foxborough, a throwback to the Josh McDaniels era. O’Brien first joined the Patriots in 2007 when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. McDaniels was the Patriots offensive coordinator for Jones’ rookie season. The Patriots’ 2023 draft class should benefit Jones too. They loaded up on defense in early rounds and that’s actually good for the offense. Christian Gonzalez will be a really important piece and if Keion White can help Matt Judon the 2023 Patriots will generate turnovers.
Speedy 2023 Comeback Player of the Year Candidate – John Ross
Back in 2017 Ross ran what is widely regarded as the fastest 40-yard dash in combine history, but his NFL career has never really taken off. He’s more fondly remembered for wearing the wrong cleats and missing out on winning his very own island.
The 9th overall selection by the Bengals, Ross was injured three separate times in his rookie season. He missed the opening game of the season with a knee injury. He then missed three more weeks with a knee ailment and a shoulder injury landed him on IR in December. When he did make his Bengals debut, they lined him up at running back and he fumbled his first carry. Between injuries he was a healthy scratch for five games. Unsurprisingly Marvin Lewis’ handling of a 21-year-old Ross was questioned by many.
After his single touch of the ball in his rookie season Ross has only managed to play 34 games, starting just 21. He missed the entire 2022 season after a knee injury curtailed his 2021 campaign with the Giants. He’s 27 now, but in New York he averaged 20 yards per touch.
The Chiefs signed him to a futures deal back in January and when it comes to managing players Andy Reid is not Marvin Lewis. With Mahomes throwing passes, Kelce and Toney attracting defenders and Pacheco occupying linebackers Ross would be a useful outlet. Even if he isn’t catching passes his ability to get deep quickly will stretch defenses. He may not even feature regularly in the passing game but he would still be a useful weapon as a kick returner. The Chiefs averaged just 40.7 return yards per game in 2022, almost 30 yards fewer than the league leading Packers.
A 2023 Comeback Player You Can Bet On – Calvin Ridley
In his third season in the league, and despite missing week 9 against Denver, Ridley racked up 1,374 receiving yards. That would have led all Jaguars’ receivers (by 266 yards) last season. Despite putting up that number of yards he only caught 62.9% of his targets in 2020. Marvin Jones Jr. Was the only Jaguars receiver with a lower catch rate in 2022. Overall, in the league Ridley would have ranked 138th. He caught nine touchdowns in 2020, one fewer than his rookie season. More concerningly five of Ridley’s targets in 2020 resulted in interceptions. Trevor Lawrence doesn’t mind throwing into coverage for receivers to compete, so Ridley is going to have to fight for some of his catches in 2023. Ridley only played five games in 2021 before having to take a break for mental health reasons.
Essentially Ridley is a younger, more efficient Jones Jr. Jones was the Jags’ third wide receiver last term (but Evan Engram and Travis Etienne were more important). He caught 81 passes, but he failed to haul in 35 of his targets. Jones Jr. played 16 games in 2021 and accounted for 14.1% of the team’s targets. If Jacksonville uses Ridley in a similar role, he will become an integral part of what should be a high scoring Jaguars offense.
An indefinite suspension for gambling kept Ridley out the league last season. In total he missed 27 games, 16 more than Deshaun Watson.
Rams Redemption – Cooper Kupp
Kupp injured an ankle in week 10, surgery followed although it’s been reported that it wasn’t necessary. He still caught 75 passes for 812 yards in 2022 though. That was 192 yards more than the Rams next best pass catcher, tight end Tyler Higbee. The second wide receiver on the list, Ben Skowronek only caught 39 passes for 376 yards. Essentially the Rams 2022 season was a litany of injuries with a revolving door that quarterbacks entered and then left through.
2021 was Kupp’s best season in the NFL (and he’s had some pretty good ones), he caught 16 touchdown passes and averaged 114.5 yards per game. Given how much NFC West teams have improved their defenses in the last two off seasons it’d be tricky for him to repeat those numbers. But he, provided the Rams have broken their 2022 injury curse he could definitely have another very good season.
Fifth round draft pick Puka Nacua looks like he will pretty difficult to defend in the NFL. Clemson tight end Davis Allen can certainly catch a pass too, so the Rams offense should have more bite than he last season. Matthew Stafford says he has “no limitations” despite his 2022 season ending prematurely with a “spinal contusion” so the 2023 Rams should be more 2021 than 2022. Kupp is primed to compete for the 2023 Comeback Player of the Year award.
Sam’s Club – Sam Darnold
You can bet on Trey Lance winning comeback of the year in 2023 which seems odd as he has nothing to come back to. His career is still in its infancy. But then Geno Smith won it last year when he’d never really hit the heights before.
Kyle Shanahan has an uncanny knack of identifying what quarterbacks are good at and developing a game plan to maximize those talents. Darnold is still recovering from what amounted to an abusive relationship with the Jets. Like plenty of competent starting quarterbacks who have had the misfortune to land in New York (hello Mark Sanchez) he was asked to save a team that didn’t have enough talent to save itself. He spent the last two years riding the roller coaster that is David Tepper’s Panthers team and he’s still yet to start a full season despite being in the league for five years.
It’s impossible to know how the 49ers season is going to go or who will start at quarterback. Brock Purdy’s injury seems to set to keep him out of the first game or two but they’ve got three who could all start if Shanahan thinks they’ll carry out his plan well. If Darnold is the chosen one he’ll have something he hasn’t benefited from thus far in his career, an offensive line who can block. Darnold grew up around 400 miles away from Levis Stadium and attended USC whose home stadium is 350 miles south of the 49ers base so this seems like a good fit.
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