The Kansas City Chiefs selected wide receiver Rashee Rice in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, and at least one analyst expects big things from the rookie. According to NFL Network’s Charles Davis, Rice is the favorite to lead all rookies in receiving yards.
Charles Davis: Chiefs Rashee Rice Will Lead Rookies in Receiving Yards
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Appearing on a recent episode of Path to the Draft, Davis explained why he believes great things are in store for the SMU product.
“I’m going to go with a little bit of a surprise I think. Rashee Rice out of SMU going to the Kansas City Chiefs because he’s going to fill that role that Juju Smith-Schuster had and Patrick Mahomes is going to get him up to speed fast…this kid caught a bunch of balls at SMU. He’s played pitch and catch his entire career.”
As you can see, Davis believes that Rice’s fit in Kansas City is the perfect mix of talent and opportunity. Mahomes is guaranteed to be at or near the top of the passing leaderboards when all is said and done, but that doesn’t necessarily mean those targets will go to Rice. Let’s take a look at Rashee Rice and see how the Chiefs rookie’s talent and situation compares to his peers.
Chiefs’ Rashee Rice vs Other Rookies
From an analytics standpoint, Rashee Rice has a decent profile, but he’s nothing special. Davis is right about his receiving volume, as the SMU product finished his collegiate career with a 96th percentile target share. However, he was only able to turn that volume into a 64th percentile college dominator ranking.
For those unfamiliar with the metric, college dominator basically measures the market share of receiving yards and touchdowns a player gets. So, even though Rice saw an insane number of targets, he didn’t do too much with them, which isn’t great for his yardage projection. Additionally, his 53rd percentile breakout age implies that he might need some time to learn the adjust to the speed of the NFL game.
Based on talent alone, there is a case to be made that he is the fifth-best receiver in his class, behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, and Zay Flowers. However, we know talent isn’t everything and situation will impact receiving numbers.
Smith-Njigba is a tier above the rest when it comes to wide receiver prospects, but he’s stuck in a run-first offense behind Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Maybe talent wins out, but he won’t have that much opportunity Year 1. Flowers and Johnston, meanwhile, are similarly buried on the depth chart and might need some time to earn targets.
Jordan Addison, however, is in the perfect position to succeed. A highly-talented player, the Pittsburgh product should start from Day 1 and has a solid quarterback in Kirk Cousins throwing him the ball. Addison’s combination of talent and situation makes him the favorite to lead all rookies in receiving yards, but Rashee Rice should battle for second place in his first year with the Chiefs.
Main Photo: Kirby Lee – USA Today Sports
