The biggest coaching change in the off-season won’t be the coach we let go, but the one we added. John Pagano’s exact role on game day is not yet fully clear. However, Raiders fans should be excited about the potential his influence might bring to the team.
The Potential Influence of John Pagano
Pagano runs a 3-4 defense heavily influenced by Wade Phillips, thanks to the time that Phillips spent as defensive coordinator of the Chargers. It’s a defense primarily known for disguising pressure well and creating the best possible match-ups. As Pagano said himself, “this game is all about angles.”
A traditional 3-4 defense is a two gap scheme. That is, it asks the three down linemen to each cover two gaps on the offensive line. This creates a need to read and react to a play as it happens, and decide which of the two gaps to cover.
Phillips’ 3-4, and by extension Pagano’s too, is instead a one gap scheme, which means each lineman attacks a single specific gap on every down. The remaining gaps are the responsibility of the linebackers behind them. It moves the defense into a mode of attack, of dictating play rather than reacting to it. Whilst it is similar in this regard to a traditional 4-3 defense, it does have additional advantages in its use of personnel.
Advantages To a One Gap 3-4 Defense
In a 4-3 defense the front four all rush the passer, and the offense knows they have two defensive ends and two defensive tackles. They are all easy to take into account. In Pagano’s system, four players are still rushing the passer, but it’s the front three plus one linebacker. The linebacker can be moved anywhere, creating a need for the offense to constantly account for him. It might not be much, but it adds a layer of disguise to the base defense.
The defense can take further advantage of this as the offense will be expecting a rush from this linebacker. If an offense moves its protection to take into account this player, that opens up opportunities elsewhere.
Opportunities for the Raiders
Imagine a 3-4 front with Irvin and Mack as the outside linebackers. An offense would have to expect Mack to be the 4th pass rusher on most downs, but there’s no way it could discount Irvin. This inability to determine exactly where the rush is coming from in a base defense would give a new edge of unpredictability to the Raiders play.
The defense under Ken Norton Jr was schematically vanilla. Norton seemed to want to put his players in a position to execute, but often it was too easy to see what the Raiders were trying to do on defense. Pagano should help build an element of complexity into the defense that should help to disguise the defense’s intentions. Expect more blitzes, better executed.
A Need To Upgrade Middle Linebacker
This style of 3-4 defense asks a lot of its middle linebackers. Whilst an upgrade here was an obvious requirement, Pagano’s hiring makes this even higher on the priority list. Players like Danny Trevathan and Brandon Marshall in Denver or Manti Te’o and Denzel Perryman in San Diego have made their names in these schemes. These players are fast and flexible. They can do everything from blitz the quarterback, defend the run and play in coverage. I would love to see Zach Cunningham still on the board when the Raiders draft in the first round. He would be an instant upgrade, a versatile piece for Pagano and Norton to build around in the middle of the field.
Delivering Improvement in the Secondary
Yes, our defensive backfield struggled all year. However, Pagano is well known for scheming his defense around the personnel available to him. Reggie Nelson might not even be back next season, but if he does return expect to see less of him as the single high safety, a role to which he was clearly unsuited. Expect a better season from Sean Smith if Pagano can do more to create a defense that plays to his strengths as a tall, physical corner. Better defensive coaching should be able to get more out of a secondary with plenty of on-paper talent.
An Exciting Hire
Overall, Pagano’s hire should excite Raiders fans. Of course this defense still has needs. A run-stuffing defensive tackle is a must, as is a quicker middle linebacker who isn’t a liability in coverage. But it also needs to get smarter, blitz more intelligently, better disguise its coverage and find an ability to surprise an offense. Pagano can bring all of these things. Expect more from the Raiders defensively in 2017.
