Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins was one of the biggest breakout candidates in fantasy football, but now his season has come to a premature close. The second-year running back is believed to have suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason finale, leaving Gus Edwards all alone in Baltimore’s backfield. With no other meaningful competition, will Gus Edwards be able to be a fantasy football league winner?
An ACL tear is the belief, but all parties are waiting on the MRI to confirm. https://t.co/aRjNWMxqSS
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) August 29, 2021
Fantasy Football: Projecting Gus Edwards After J.K. Dobbins Injury
Gus Edwards the Player
J.K. Dobbins is probably a better player than Gus Edwards, but that doesn’t mean Edwards is incapable of handling a full workload. Since entering the league, the former undrafted free agent is actually one of the most efficient running backs on a per-touch basis. While some of that is due to playing with Lamar Jackson, both the analytics and the film suggest that Edwards is a starting-caliber running back.
According to PlayerProfiler, Edwards ranked seventh in the league in true yards per carry, breakaway runs, and breakaway run rate. On top of that, Edwards’ 1.14 rushing yards over expectation per carry ranked third in the league, while his 85.5 PFF grade was fifth-best in the league. Edwards might not be able to sustain this level of efficiency over a larger workload, but there is no denying he has the talent required to succeed at the NFL level.
Players can have great film and metrics, but it won’t mean much if the coaching staff doesn’t put the guy on the field. Fortunately, the Ravens seem to know that they’ve got a good player in Gus Edwards. The team signed him to a two-year, $9 million contract this offseason, which is a pretty solid chunk of change for a backup running back. Additionally, even when Dobbins earned the starting job last year, Edwards still managed to receive approximately 40% of the running back touches.
The biggest weakness in Edwards’ game is his lack of involvement in the passing game. Since entering the league, Edwards has never recorded more than nine receptions in a single season. That number will probably increase due to the complete lack of competition in the backfield, but it will never be a major part of his game. Running backs can still put up great seasons without heavy receiving work, but it does put a notable cap on his ceiling.
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2021 Projection
As things currently stand, the only other running backs on the depth chart are Justice Hill, Ty’Son Williams, and Nate McCrary. The Ravens will add another running back, but that player probably won’t be very good. Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson are the two best runners left on the market, and both players were among the worst in the league at every notable rushing metric last year.
There is a chance the Ravens try to claim a running back when teams trim down their rosters, but that player probably won’t be very good either. These guys are getting cut for a reason, and any good runner that hits waivers will probably be claimed by Jacksonville. The Jaguars have a higher waiver priority and, like Baltimore, they lost their top running back to a preseason injury.
All of this is one long way of saying that Gus Edwards will be the best running back in Baltimore by a considerable margin. Head coach Jim Harbaugh doesn’t believe in a true three-down workhorse, but the gap in talent means that Edwards should see about 60% of the running back touches with heavy goal line usage.
Considering how often Baltimore runs the ball, a 60% market share would give Edwards approximately 255 carries. We can assume that Edwards will make the most of these opportunities, as he is a great player in his own right and Lamar Jackson is the hardest player to defend in the run game. Assuming a healthy five yards per carry (his career average is 5.2), this gives Edwards 1,275 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. Assuming minimal contributions to the passing game, this will give him roughly 13-13.5 fantasy points per game.
Overall, this puts Edwards roughly in the RB15-20 range. While he doesn’t have the same league-winning upside as other players, he should be good enough for a weekly start.
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