The quarterback position has become the most league-dependent position in fantasy football in recent years. Waiting on a quarterback has been the thing to do in most typical leagues but with the rise in popularity of Superflex leagues and custom scoring settings, there’s been much more of an emphasis on getting a high-end quarterback. Regardless of format, Kyler Murray has been a part of a new wave of dual-threat quarterbacks that are not only becoming more prevalent in football but absolutely dominating in fantasy football. It’s not a question of WILL Kyler Murray be a good fantasy football quarterback in 2021, but rather HOW good will he be?
Fantasy Football Player Profiles
Kyler Murray 2021 Fantasy Football Profile
A Look Back at 2020
Heading into 2020, there was plenty of buzz about Kyler Murray and what his potential could be for fantasy football purposes. He was just coming off a rookie year in which he won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and was the QB12 in fantasy points per game, despite one of the most unlucky touchdown rates of any quarterback. The Arizona Cardinals also went out and bolstered Murray’s weapons by adding some guy named DeAndre Hopkins… you may have heard of him.
To start off the year, the Murray hype paid off in bunches. Through Week 9, he already had double-digit rushing touchdowns and had at least one rushing touchdown in every game except for one. His athleticism and rushing ability were on full display as he was averaging nearly ten carries per game and more than 67 yards rushing. Murray was on pace to follow Lamar Jackson’s footsteps and become the next quarterback to rush for more than 1,000 yards in a season. He was also on pace to set the all-time fantasy quarterback scoring record. However, in Week 10, disaster struck in the way of a shoulder injury.
#Cardinals' Kyler Murray was averaging 0.78 fantasy points/dropback & 27.5 per game before Week 10 shoulder injury against Seattle.
Worst weekly finish before injury was 7th.
Post injury only cracked that seal one time in six games and dipped to 0.49/dropback & 19.1/game. pic.twitter.com/F4GsAJoNVL
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 8, 2021
As seen in the above Tweet, Murray’s production dropped off a cliff after the shoulder injury. It was almost strictly due to a conscious effort not to run. As previously mentioned, he was averaging nearly 10 carries and 67 rushing yards per game. From that point on, Murray’s averages dipped to seven carries and 35 rushing yards per game. These numbers don’t include a Week 17 game in which he only had two carries for three yards. He also only had one rushing touchdown in the final seven games after having scored 10 in the first nine games.
Add it all up and Murray still put together a great sophomore campaign. Through Week 16, he was the QB2 in terms of points per game with 25.80 among quarterbacks who played in at least five games, behind only Dak Prescott (who only played five games).
Kyler Murray: only QB w/ 5 RUSH TDs of 10+ yards in 2020
Hit the 🔁 button if you're drafting him this seasonpic.twitter.com/Fg0729XRhR
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) August 10, 2021
Previewing 2021
Looking towards 2021, it’s simply a matter of staying healthy for Murray. As previously mentioned, a healthy Kyler Murray is not only one of the best fantasy football quarterbacks in the NFL today, but also one of the best we’ve ever seen.
Kyler Murray could BREAK Fantasy this Year. His upside is LEGIT INSANE
— Derek Brown (aka Ugly John Daigle) (@DBro_FFB) August 8, 2021
The main thing that will allow Murray to remain an elite fantasy quarterback is to stay healthy. As long as he plays a full season, it’s hard to see him finishing outside of the top-five at the position. The only other potential drawback is if Arizona scales back his running. They did so after his injury last season so there are questions as to whether or not they will this season. Even if they do, he’s such a weapon in that area that it would be a shock if he had less than 650 rushing yards in a full, healthy season.
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In terms of what makes Murray so attractive as a fantasy option is, of course, that rushing ability. With rushing yardage being worth 2.5 times as much as passing yardage in standard leagues, it’s easy to see why it’s so important. On top of that is the system that coach Cliff Kingsbury runs in Arizona. Kingsbury likes to play as fast-paced as possible. In 2020, the Cardinals ran the third-most offensive plays per game and were the fastest-paced offense in context-neutral situations. This is important for fantasy purposes because the more plays an offense runs, the more chances they have at fantasy points.
– Kyler Murray healthy, which he wasn't down the stretch, can do everything. No matter who is out there, he's the fastest and quickest player on the field. Always.
– There is no place he can't put a ball. He can go anywhere he wants with it. Accurately. Expect another jump.— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) August 8, 2021
As if it wasn’t already good enough, the Arizona Cardinals gave Murray even more weapons for 2021. The wide receiver room will almost assuredly be an improved group once again after signing A.J. Green in free agency and drafting Purdue’s Rondale Moore in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft. While there are questions about how much Green has left in the tank and whether Moore’s explosive playmaking will translate to the NFL, they will certainly provide more production than Larry Fitzgerald and Andy Isabella did in 2020. If they both can provide a big boost, this could be key in unlocking even another level for Murray as a passer in 2021.
Kyler Murray Fantasy Football Average Draft Position
Murray is currently going as the 39th player overall off the board as the QB3 according to Fantasypros. That’s the same range as guys like Josh Jacobs, Chris Carson, and Mike Evans. Some quarterbacks going around that point are Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
🚨2021 QB RANKINGS🚨
Who is too high? Who is too low? 👀 Drop your thoughts below ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/vGmLy92saR— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) July 22, 2021
In fantasy drafts, it used to be that just waiting as long as possible and drafting a quarterback that could run was the best option. While that’s still somewhat viable, fantasy managers have gotten smarter and have started taking the rushing quarterbacks earlier and rightfully so as they’ve become even more of a necessity than a luxury. For these reasons, drafting Murray near his ADP is still a good investment, and should he fall a round or two, he becomes a great investment. In 2021, Kyler Murray has the perfect combination of rushing ability, offensive system, weapons, and all-around talent to not only finish as the best quarterback in fantasy football but to break fantasy records in the process.
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