Heading into Week 17, the Dallas Cowboys find themselves in one of the strangest situations in football. At 6-9, the Cowboys could win the division with a win and some help, or they could fall all the way down to the seventh-overall pick. This is an absolutely wild turn of event, as it looked like the team could have a top-five pick after losing quarterback Dak Prescott.
If the Cowboys make it to the playoffs, you’ll hear some arguments for rolling with Andy Dalton on pennies rather than paying up to retain Prescott. If the Cowboys lose, some will argue to part ways with Prescott and invest in a talented quarterback draft class. Both of those ideas are terrible: no matter what Sunday brings, Dak Prescott will be the best quarterback option for this team going forward.
Dak Prescott the Best Quarterback For 2021 Dallas Cowboys
Dak vs Dalton
Nobody in the world believes Andy Dalton is a better quarterback than Dak Prescott. However, some would argue that paying Dalton $3 million per year is more beneficial to the team than paying Prescott upwards of $35 million. That difference in salary is enough to sign key players at other prominent positions and bolster the overall roster.
However, there are some flaws in that reasoning. For one, the quarterback is so disproportionately important that team-building should revolve around finding the best passer you can get. After all, it’s a passing league, and a top-10 quarterback awards you more wins than an extra linebacker.
Tom Brady is typically the go-to example when people point out the difficulty of winning a Super Bowl with a high-priced quarterback. For years, Brady took hometown discounts to help the New England Patriots build the most competitive roster possible. However, a deeper dive shows that Brady’s discounts didn’t amount to much in terms of actual winning and losing. According to a data study performed by Pro Football Focus, Brady’s team-friendly deals were only worth roughly 0.1 wins per season.
The Patriots didn’t win six Super Bowls because Tom Brady came at a good price: they won six Super Bowls because Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were both the best in the league at their respective jobs. Dak Prescott is a far better quarterback than Andy Dalton, and the difference in salary doesn’t offset the talent disparity.
Dak Prescott or the Rookie Quarterback
If the Cowboys lose, they could end up with a top-10 pick. An elite quarterback on a rookie contract is the most valuable resource in football, as you get all of the production with none of the cost. The Kansas City Chiefs used that competitive advantage to make it to the AFC Championship Game in 2018 and to win the Super Bowl in 2019.
Finding a better quarterback than Dak Prescott in the NFL Draft is possible, but it sure isn’t easy. The scouting process is anything but perfect, and drafting a quarterback early does not mean that they will be successful. Historically speaking, the worst quarterback off the board is usually worse than Prescott.
According to @CowboysStats, since 1999, Matt Ryan is the only quarterback taken first in his respective draft class to outperform Prescott in EPA/play. EPA data only goes back to 1999, so that’s why Peyton Manning isn’t also on this list. However, based on this alone, it’s safe to assume that any quarterback selected by the Cowboys would be a downgrade on Prescott. As previously established, quality of quarterback play is far more important than financial savings at the position, which means that keeping Prescott is far more likely to lead to long-term success.
created a list of the #1 qb prospect taken in each draft since 1999 (+ dak prescott) pic.twitter.com/5nzmmxVspn
— Cowboys Stats & Graphics (@CowboysStats) October 25, 2020
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